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Poll of Polls Forecasting Model Useful for PI/PMI


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Hello,
This is my UK prediction with today projection and near future (1 month) projection if the actual trends detected by model keep happening.

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I make poll of polls as the title says, using reference data from last 32 official polls of every aproached nation, as seen in websites like Wikipedia, after I use a mathematical model to determine the predicted results. I made retro tests with past elections, and I improved the prediction model very much. Now it's very efficient, I can give some examples:

My model vs. Real Clear Politics in past USA Elections since 2004:

Bush 2004: 49.0% vs. 48.9%
Kerry 2004: 47.8% vs. 47.4%

Obama 2008: 51.9% vs. 52.1%
McCain 2008: 45.0% vs. 44.5%

Obama 2012: 48.5% vs. 48.8%
Romney 2012: 47.7% vs. 48.1%

Trump 2016: 44.1% vs. 43.6%
Clinton 2016: 46.5% vs. 46.8%
My Total Error (REPS+DEMS) vs. RCP aggregate polls error:

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I did better than RCP in every election.
Portuguese retro predictions for 2019 with the actual model, 0.28% mean error in every party:

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I can post here United Kingdom and USA predictions every month that can be useful for scenarios. 
My Political personal Twitter is also in Portuguese, but I can do another Twitter page in english and share here if you want and show interest, anyway it's easy to understand the results by the party names and values in %.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

@Entrecampos I'm curious what your model things the popular vote is for Biden/Trump in 2020. 

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I have extrapolation model for each state, but i'm doing improvements, so I did only put the sure states. Next week I will put again with all states colorful.

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54 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

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I have extrapolation model for each state, but i'm doing improvements, so I did only put the sure states. Next week I will put again with all states colorful.

Interesting. The PV gap is almost double that of Clinton vs. Trump. 

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3 hours ago, Entrecampos said:

Hello,
This is my UK prediction with today projection and near future (1 month) projection if the actual trends detected by model keep happening.

Post image

I make poll of polls as the title says, using reference data from last 32 official polls of every aproached nation, as seen in websites like Wikipedia, after I use a mathematical model to determine the predicted results. I made retro tests with past elections, and I improved the prediction model very much. Now it's very efficient, I can give some examples:

My model vs. Real Clear Politics in past USA Elections since 2004:

Bush 2004: 49.0% vs. 48.9%
Kerry 2004: 47.8% vs. 47.4%

Obama 2008: 51.9% vs. 52.1%
McCain 2008: 45.0% vs. 44.5%

Obama 2012: 48.5% vs. 48.8%
Romney 2012: 47.7% vs. 48.1%

Trump 2016: 44.1% vs. 43.6%
Clinton 2016: 46.5% vs. 46.8%
My Total Error (REPS+DEMS) vs. RCP aggregate polls error:

Post image

I did better than RCP in every election.
Portuguese retro predictions for 2019 with the actual model, 0.28% mean error in every party:

Post image

I can post here United Kingdom and USA predictions every month that can be useful for scenarios. 
My Political personal Twitter is also in Portuguese, but I can do another Twitter page in english and share here if you want and show interest, anyway it's easy to understand the results by the party names and values in %.

You said "every approached nation," (assumably in reference to the PI and PMI elections stated in your title scheme, and then in comparison to your own Portugal project), but there's no Canadian "poll-of-polls," listed, despite Canada being a nation fully approached in a PMI game.

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