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VCCZAR 2020 General Election Forecast (New Method)


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I'm changing how I do my forecast. Instead of just updating the latest poll #, I'm going to look at the 5 most recent polls in every state and adjust the colors based off that. 

A solid color = All 5 of the most recent polls are led by the same candidate. 

A middle color = 1 poll went for the other candidate (in a tie, I'll make an executive decision based off recent general election history). 

A pale color = 2 polls went for the other candidate. 

I'll update this whenever polls change the colors.

For now, Biden is killing Trump. He's monopolized victories in Florida, Michigan, and Arizona---all states Trump won in 2016. New Hampshire is kind of an oddity here. However, Trump's winning polls come from before Biden was the sole nominee remaining. We also really need more Minnesota polls. 

March 26th Map: 

Here's the current map: ErKlg.png

 

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May 26th late night edition: A new poll favoring Trump in NC switches the state from Biden to Trump: 

yyAZd.png

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1 hour ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Any plan to continue this? I enjoy seeing the weekly/daily changes.

I update it when there’s a change. No change, then it’s still the same. 

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Update June 3: No change to EC, but Trump won his first poll in AZ in months. He also won a poll in PA. However, it should also be known that these are Morning Consult polls, which are C+ rated. Nevertheless, I include all polls that score C- or higher. Therefore, the PA and AZ shades are a lighter blue. The same polling company has a lead for Biden in MI, WI, and FL today, and a lead for Trump in NC. 

B8mdP.png

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  Wis.
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
801 RV Biden
49%
40%
Trump Biden +9
  Ohio
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
803 RV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
  Ariz.
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
1,002 RV Biden
46%
42%
Trump Biden +4
  Texas
 
MAY 28-JUN 1, 2020
1,166 RV Biden
43%
44%
Trump Trump +1

 

Quinnipiac poll with Trump +1 in Texas

3 Fox polls: Biden +9, 2, 4 in WI, OH, and AZ respectively

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1 hour ago, avatarmushi said:
  Wis.
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
801 RV Biden
49%
40%
Trump Biden +9
  Ohio
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
803 RV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
  Ariz.
 
MAY 30-JUN 2, 2020
1,002 RV Biden
46%
42%
Trump Biden +4
  Texas
 
MAY 28-JUN 1, 2020
1,166 RV Biden
43%
44%
Trump Trump +1

 

Quinnipiac poll with Trump +1 in Texas

3 Fox polls: Biden +9, 2, 4 in WI, OH, and AZ respectively

I’ve accounted for these. See the first post for my method. 

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June 4th map: Latest poll flips NC for Biden as he now has 3 polls with him in the lead to 2 polls with Trump in the lead within the last 5 polls in NC. 

One note I should make is that this methd could ultimately proof wrong. It would have in 2016, which saw Clinton winning 5 of the last polls in WI, PA, and 4 of 5 in MI. Trump was leading in 3 of the last 5 NV polls and lost that state. I am doing this with the assumption that the pollsters have analyzed their date and figured out the mistakes they made previously, resulting in at least somewhat more accurate results. 

yy3Zk.png

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3 minutes ago, Wiw said:

By that token, then, polls mean nothing.

Not necessarily. I read that all the polls had a margin of error in which Trump could win the state, which means the dice rolled his direction, even if the odds were against him. 

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3 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Supposing the Russians intervene again?

They could, but how many % points can they sway an election? If anything, they just helped Trump reach his part of the margin of error. The thing with Biden is that he's leading beyond the margin of error in many cases. If Trump still manages to win, then there's definitely stronger evidence that something is wrong. I do think the Russians interfered but my belief is that they swayed only a couple thousand votes at best, mostly in battleground states. I think most voters were either definitely not going to vote for Trump or were definitely not going to vote for Clinton. 

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9 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Supposing the Russians intervene again?

Although I don't condone of practice of interfering with, and rigging other sovereign nations' elections by anyone, the Italians, Chileans, South Koreans, South Vietnamese, Filipinos, Cambodians, Iranians, Turks, Brazilians, Colombians, Panamanians, Cubans, Guatemalans, Dominican Republicans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Salvadorians, from various elections in their histories, MIGHT argue the U.S. had it coming.

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