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Outlier Poll with Trump Crushing Biden?

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Thought I'd bring this outlier up: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/497677-trump-leads-biden-in-15-battleground-states-while-bidens-lead-shrinks

Here's the gist:

  • Trump leads Biden in 15 battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
  • Trump's lead among those polled in these states is +7
  • Despite this, the same poll has Biden beating Trump nationally. 
  • Bidens lead among those poll nationally for this poll is +6
  • This poll was not a state-by-state poll, but rather, it polled random people from these states in a single poll. 
  • Despite the lead for Trump in these battleground states, the polls finds that Biden is more favorable than Trump, that Biden is more trusted on healthcare and the coronavirus. However, Trump is trusted more on the economy. 
  • Biden leads 71 to 19 among those that dislike both candidates
  • The poll margin of error is 3.7

Why this poll doesn't make sense or why it is an outlier:

  • In state-specific polls in 100% of the cases, Trump has never polled +7 in any of these 15 battleground states. 
  • In state-specific polls Biden has led Trump 100% of the time in AZ, CO, ME, MI,  MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, VA, and WI in polls within the last month. Biden has lead more often than Trump has led in FL, GA, NC, and OH. 
  • In state-specific polls, Trump has never led in any of these states the majority of the time within the last month, and possibly longer. 



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I think this poll was derived by taking relatively small samples from each of the states named and then combining them into one big "swing state sample." While it's obviously not *good* news for Biden, I'm somewhat skeptical of the methodology and would tend to pay more attention to the individual state polls.

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