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Outlier Poll with Trump Crushing Biden?


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Thought I'd bring this outlier up: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/497677-trump-leads-biden-in-15-battleground-states-while-bidens-lead-shrinks

Here's the gist:

  • Trump leads Biden in 15 battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
  • Trump's lead among those polled in these states is +7
  • Despite this, the same poll has Biden beating Trump nationally. 
  • Bidens lead among those poll nationally for this poll is +6
  • This poll was not a state-by-state poll, but rather, it polled random people from these states in a single poll. 
  • Despite the lead for Trump in these battleground states, the polls finds that Biden is more favorable than Trump, that Biden is more trusted on healthcare and the coronavirus. However, Trump is trusted more on the economy. 
  • Biden leads 71 to 19 among those that dislike both candidates
  • The poll margin of error is 3.7

Why this poll doesn't make sense or why it is an outlier:

  • In state-specific polls in 100% of the cases, Trump has never polled +7 in any of these 15 battleground states. 
  • In state-specific polls Biden has led Trump 100% of the time in AZ, CO, ME, MI,  MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, VA, and WI in polls within the last month. Biden has lead more often than Trump has led in FL, GA, NC, and OH. 
  • In state-specific polls, Trump has never led in any of these states the majority of the time within the last month, and possibly longer. 

 

 

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My current prediction has Biden getting 352 Ev's

(Remember how well I did in the 2016 prediction ;),  PA! ) 

Ohio will be won by Biden by around 0.3%

Florida won by Biden by around 0.8%

Arizona won by Biden by around 1.1%

North Carolina won by Biden by around 1.9%

The rest being by around 2.8% or more, for close states. 

This time around for PA, Realizing stuff even more now since I work with the State Dems, I could see Biden winning by up to 8% (Like a 53%-45% scenario, slightly accounting for third parties), but my current actual PA prediction is about 50%-45% Biden for PA. 

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15 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Optimistic about Ohio, eh?

Yes, because it is Biden,and I believe he most certainly has appeal to Ohio Democrats,especially the ones I know,alot of whom where former Trump voters, I think it will be a thin margin. 

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I think this poll was derived by taking relatively small samples from each of the states named and then combining them into one big "swing state sample." While it's obviously not *good* news for Biden, I'm somewhat skeptical of the methodology and would tend to pay more attention to the individual state polls.

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