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VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


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May 21st poll: Four new polls this morning. Biden  is up by over 20 in WA. He's up +9 in both WI and MI. The same polling company has Trump up +5 in PA, which seems like an outlier. The polling company that conducted the polls for WI, MI, and PA is a new polling company that doesn't have a rating.  It's interesting that this is the first poll that shows a start difference between PA and WI/MI. Not only that, it shows a convincing lead for Trump. While it may be an outlier, I'll keep this on here until it is superceded by a new poll. 

 0mjK9.png

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@vcczar You forgot to mention it in your write-up but I see you reflected it on the map: Biden just got a good poll out of GA

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59 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar You forgot to mention it in your write-up but I see you reflected it on the map: Biden just got a good poll out of GA

It's in the write up for yesterday. I posted two maps yesterday.

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@Reagan04

If Biden does actually do the unthinkable and win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and maybe even some completely unexpected typically Republican state, how do Republicans respond in the future? Do you believe they'd write it off as the unlikability of Trump or would there be some genuine fear of those states being at play more consistently? 

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5 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

@Reagan04

If Biden does actually do the unthinkable and win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and maybe even some completely unexpected typically Republican state, how do Republicans respond in the future? Do you believe they'd write it off as the unlikability of Trump or would there be some genuine fear of those states being at play more consistently? 

I was reading that if the economy gets worse that Biden could win MO, but I can't seem him winning any state that has poll +20 for Trump at any time in the last year.

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57 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

@Reagan04

If Biden does actually do the unthinkable and win Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and maybe even some completely unexpected typically Republican state, how do Republicans respond in the future? Do you believe they'd write it off as the unlikability of Trump or would there be some genuine fear of those states being at play more consistently? 

We are likely going to respond by going to war with ourselves in 2024. While I doubt Trump runs again if he gets slammed in 2020 (which he likely will), if he  did,  that would pose lots and lots of challenges. Ultimately, I think the only viable way forward for the party is to promote female and minority conservatives and expand the outreach of our party and our message by making major reforms. This only happens if Biden wins in a landslide, which is why I'm pulling so hard for it.

I often hear the phrase country over party and while I agree with that that's not really what I'm doing.

Yes, it will absolutely be better for the country that we get our asses kicked this time around. But it will be even better for the long term success of the Republican Party to get our asses kicked and actually be able to govern with a semblance of integrity in days to come.

Long story short, we need our asses kicked into gear.

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30 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

We are likely going to respond by going to war with ourselves in 2024. While I doubt Trump runs again if he gets slammed in 2020 (which he likely will), if he  did,  that would pose lots and lots of challenges. Ultimately, I think the only viable way forward for the party is to promote female and minority conservatives and expand the outreach of our party and our message by making major reforms. This only happens if Biden wins in a landslide, which is why I'm pulling so hard for it.

I often hear the phrase country over party and while I agree with that that's not really what I'm doing.

Yes, it will absolutely be better for the country that we get our asses kicked this time around. But it will be even better for the long term success of the Republican Party to get our asses kicked and actually be able to govern with a semblance of integrity in days to come.

Long story short, we need our asses kicked into gear.

Your analysis is eerily similar to what I heard from some Democrats in 2016 that voted for Trump. They believed that the rejection of the establishment Clinton would lead to the Democratic Party embracing progressive/anti corruption ideals, and saw Trump’s victory as a necessary evil to revamp the Democratic Party in the same way you see Biden and the Republican Party. 

It didn’t work out how progressives hoped in 2016. Hopefully Republicans steer away from Trump as you mentioned rather than lean into him four years from now. 

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President: general election  Wis.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
875 LV Biden
48%
38%
Trump Biden +10
President: general election  Mich.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
970 LV Biden
47%
39%
Trump Biden +8
President: general election  Pa.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
963 LV Biden
48%
39%
Trump Biden +9
President: general election  Fla.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
1,014 LV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
President: general election  N.C.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
859 LV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
President: general election  Ariz.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
946 LV Biden
45%
41%
Trump Biden

+4

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45 minutes ago, avatarmushi said:
President: general election  Wis.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
875 LV Biden
48%
38%
Trump Biden +10
President: general election  Mich.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
970 LV Biden
47%
39%
Trump Biden +8
President: general election  Pa.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
963 LV Biden
48%
39%
Trump Biden +9
President: general election  Fla.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
1,014 LV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
President: general election  N.C.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
859 LV Biden
45%
43%
Trump Biden +2
President: general election  Ariz.
 
MAY 10-14, 2020
946 LV Biden
45%
41%
Trump Biden

+4

Thanks, these were posted after I made these maps. Let me update the map. 

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May 21 Map (late night addition): Biden takes back PA, getting +9 in the latest poll to Trump's +5 in a same day poll. Biden also flips NC. However, Trump decreases the Biden's lead in MI and AZ:

7Do0J.png

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