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VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


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May 13th Map: Biden is +11 in that one district in NE, and he's +1 in GA in two new polls. It's also interesting that both GA Senate seats (one is a special election) are showing Democrats within the margin of victory. If Biden overperforms in November, we could see two Democratic Senators in GA. While Biden is losing favorability, and the national margin has gone from 6 pts for Biden to about 5 pts, Trump has to be worried that the Direction of the Country Poll has gone the wrong way for Trump by over 10 pts. Generic Dems are also killing Republicans in polls. 

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I wouldn't put much stock in the GA senate polls until we at least know who the candidates are.

 

We know incumbent David Perdue is unopposed for the Republican nomination for the full term election.  The Democrat will likely be either Jos Ossoff or Teresa Tomlinson, though there are some lesser known candidates. 

 

The special election is a free-for-all, with six Reoublican, eight Democrats, a Libertarian, and four independents so far.  

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17 hours ago, vcczar said:

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

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I would hold my breath on Georgia, Ohio, Texas, or even Florida flipping blue. Biden is the favorite to win even without them, but those 4 states are gonna be very tough to win against an incumbent republican.

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24 minutes ago, pilight said:

If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, he wins the election.

Incorrect in very many ways.

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1 hour ago, pilight said:

I stand by my prediction.  If either candidate wins both Ohio and Florida, they will win the election.

I guess that's your prediction. I expect Trump to win OH and FL, but I'm also leaning towards him losing the election anyway. I think OH is reliably red in the way that VA is now reliably blue. I think FL is now a lean Red state. I think Biden wins back WI, MI, and PA, at least the last two states. I also think he also wins AZ. I'm hard pressed to see any evidence so far that Trump can win PA and MI again. Theyve seen to have gone "Regret-a-Trump." I also don't see any evidence that suggest Trump wins any new states. It seems more likely than not that he'll fall 47 EVs from 2016. That's a loss.  

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15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I guess that's your prediction. I expect Trump to win OH and FL, but I'm also leaning towards him losing the election anyway. I think OH is reliably red in the way that VA is now reliably blue. I think FL is now a lean Red state. I think Biden wins back WI, MI, and PA, at least the last two states. I also think he also wins AZ. I'm hard pressed to see any evidence so far that Trump can win PA and MI again. Theyve seen to have gone "Regret-a-Trump." I also don't see any evidence that suggest Trump wins any new states. It seems more likely than not that he'll fall 47 EVs from 2016. That's a loss.  

Exactly. He could even lose Arizona and still win comfortably. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the prize of this election, and polling has Biden winning them.

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23 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Exactly. He could even lose Arizona and still win comfortably. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the prize of this election, and polling has Biden winning them.

Yeah, I think winning 2/3 of these is like the new Ohio. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I think winning 2/3 of these is like the new Ohio. 

Ohio is becoming culturally and politically much more similar to Indiana than Pennsylvania and Michigan is the big takeaway.

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8 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Ohio is becoming culturally and politically much more similar to Indiana than Pennsylvania and Michigan is the big takeaway.

Yeah, it seems that the Upper South is kind of migrated into Indiana and spilling into Ohio, West Virginia, and Western PA. 

The West Coast has been moving to the cities in TX, AZ and Georgia in large numbers, which sort of explains their shifting. DC has spread into Virginia. 

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May 15 (Ides of May!) update: Three new state polls came out. Biden has increased his lead in Florida; however, Trump has now flipped back NC and GA. This is corresponding with Trump slightly rising in the poll after having dropped rapidly after a career high of 45%. I'm a little worried about the Tara Reade scandal. Biden just told people not to vote for him if they believe her.

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

March 15 (Ides of March!)

I'm not exactly sure what good a 2 month old map would do us,😛

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2 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

I'm not exactly sure what good a 2 month old map would do us,😛

Oops I just woke up and lost all sense of time not having left the house in months. I've been doing this a lot. I keep telling my students that they have to write a 1,200 page paper instead of 1,200 words, for instance. 

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5 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

I’m worried about the fact that our only two choices are people with sexual assault allegations. 

Me too. It might be a requirement for office now. We appear to want leaders with whom we feel superior to. Let them be in moral, physical, and mental decline. This way we can all feel like we could be president. 

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1 minute ago, Wiw said:

I don't believe this, first emails, now sexual assault. Is there anything a recent Democrat HASN'T done!?

You're a babe in the woods if unscrupulous, corrupt, criminal, and unworthy of their office, desired office, or the people's trust or mandate politicians found among any political party or ideological stance anywhere in the world is a shock and surprise to exist as a very concept.

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Just now, Zenobiyl said:

@Wiw It would also be more fitting to replace “democrat” with “politician”. Shady fucks exist in both parties.

You mean ALL parties. The Democratic Party of the United States and the Republican Party of the United States are not the only political parties - or even the only relevant ones - in the world with corrupt and untrustworthy politicians. American parochialism and "in a void," thinking, especially applied to general issues across the board, really make those who use them, especially as absolutes, look pretty daft.

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May 19th Map: The EVs are the same. A new AZ poll confirms Biden's strength in AZ. Two new FL polls have Biden still leading in FL, but the lead is now less convincing. 

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

May 19th Map: The EVs are the same. A new AZ poll confirms Biden's strength in AZ. Two new FL polls have Biden still leading in FL, but the lead is now less convincing. 

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As someone who lives in the NE-02, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Kara Eastman beat Don Bacon but Trump beat Biden.

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Updated May 19th Map: Since posting the above map, a GA, TN, and VA poll came out. Biden barely leads in GA (Biden has been leading these state polls much more often than Trump, by the way), Trump has a huge lead in TN, while Biden has a huge lead in VA. 

 

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