VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election

[TheMiddlePolitical 99]

15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

May 7th map: Only two significant polls have come out since the last update. One of them confirms that CO is out of Trump's reach by a large margin. The other shows BIden's support dropping in NV to only +4. Thus, while the EV count is the same, the depth of Biden's support has decreased in a key state: 

Interesting to think, that the light Biden support states flipping to Trump, would win Trump the election. With 270 Ev's, which could very easily be biden winning pv by 5+ points.

[billay 163]

LMAO wtf is Trump doing? Economy is tanking and hes encouraging his followers to echo shitty rona conspiracy theories. Total recipe for disaster.

[Zenobiyl 213]

@billay I suspect his endgame is to reopen the country and (ideally) get the economy back on track/recovering in time for the general election. It’s a shit plan in my opinion, but I can’t think of a better one in his situation. Recessions generally seem to be republicans’ Achilles heel.

 

[pilight 240]

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

[Zenobiyl 213]

13 minutes ago, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

I assume you mean in recent times.

[pilight 240]

6 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

I assume you mean in recent times.

Every GOP president in my lifetime, which is to say all of them post-Eisenhower.

[Reagan04 661]

7 hours ago, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

Amazing use of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.

[Zenobiyl 213]

10 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Amazing use of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.

Buddy Imma need you to use english on my uncultured brain

[vcczar 1,265]

29 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Amazing use of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

[Patine 514]

2 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

Buddy Imma need you to use english on my uncultured brain

Trolls don't tend to be multilingual, or even dabble in peppering their speech with words from other language for academic effect, so it's not surprising. Not much need for "booklearnin'" under the bridges where trolls live.

[Reagan04 661]

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

That may be true. But its only true when things don't occur in a system of patterns. They do here.

[pilight 240]

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

I certainly didn't say that Republican presidents cause recessions.  The causes of economic downturns (and upswings) are far too complex to be lain at the feet of any one person or even a single institution.

[vcczar 1,265]

12 minutes ago, pilight said:

I certainly didn't say that Republican presidents cause recessions.  The causes of economic downturns (and upswings) are far too complex to be lain at the feet of any one person or even a single institution.

Tell that to @Reagan04 since he's the one implying that you are.

[billay 163]

On 5/7/2020 at 11:40 PM, Zenobiyl said:

@billay I suspect his endgame is to reopen the country and (ideally) get the economy back on track/recovering in time for the general election. It’s a shit plan in my opinion, but I can’t think of a better one in his situation. Recessions generally seem to be republicans’ Achilles heel.

 

I agree with you but wouldnt some of these states end off being better opening end of May and June with more testing that way theres more testing and a plan on how to Target hot spots? Also the hospitals wont be over crowded and there will be plenty of PPEs. Economy isnt coming back for awhile but you can manage it in phases and limited the mortality rate?

Instead it just seems rushed and there will be more deaths and about the same results for the economy. 

[billay 163]

On 5/8/2020 at 11:07 AM, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

I get what you're saying but let's not pretend this is the same. The economy was going to go to shit with the whole world shutting down due to a virus we dont have any gripe on yet.

[Zenobiyl 213]

@billay that’s a fair point. It’s possible he realizes the economy won’t recover and wants to pin the blame on democrats instead. The protests against lockdowns help this narrative, and he may get votes if the economic downturn is seen as the Democrat’s fault rather than the republicans.

 

Its also possible he really believes the economy will recover once the country is reopened. That would be very naive in my opinion, however.

[billay 163]

3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

@billay that’s a fair point. It’s possible he realizes the economy won’t recover and wants to pin the blame on democrats instead. The protests against lockdowns help this narrative, and he may get votes if the economic downturn is seen as the Democrat’s fault rather than the republicans.

 

Its also possible he really believes the economy will recover once the country is reopened. That would be very naive in my opinion, however.

That's an interesting take just not sure how it would work re:blaming Democrats. 

I suppose it could work if come summer this thing slows down and then there will be investigations about Biden and his son again. Trying to cause another ugly campaign and installing distrust to help lower the overall voter turnout.

[vcczar 1,265]

May 11th map: Trump seems to be slowly making inroads on the map, possibly due to the Tara Reade scandal hitting Biden. In recent polls, both TX and OH are going +3 to Trump. Therefore, these states are flipping back to his side on the map: 

[avatarmushi 6]

 

[vcczar 1,265]

May 12th map: Biden gets a +8 lead in WI in the latest poll. However, worrisome for Biden is that Trump's approval has been slowly going up and Biden's favorability has been slowly going down. 

[Zenobiyl 213]

Why isn’t Utah dark red? That state is supposed to be the most conservative in the nation.

[Patine 514]

34 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Why isn’t Utah dark red? That state is supposed to be the most conservative in the nation.

Because many people in Utah don't like Trump, who himself is NOT a Conservative, ideologically.

[vcczar 1,265]

52 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Why isn’t Utah dark red? That state is supposed to be the most conservative in the nation.

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

[Reagan04 661]

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

Western Conservatism has always had the most Libertarian genes spliced into its DNA.

[Sunnymentoaddict 39]

2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Western Conservatism has always had the most Libertarian genes spliced into its DNA.

Exactly.  

Western conservatives have a distrust towards DC that stems from the "old West". Southern conservatives have a strong emphasis on cultural/religion views. North Eastern/Midwestern are more centered on economics.