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VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


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7 hours ago, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

Amazing use of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.

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29 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Amazing use of post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning.

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

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2 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

Buddy Imma need you to use english on my uncultured brain

Trolls don't tend to be multilingual, or even dabble in peppering their speech with words from other language for academic effect, so it's not surprising. Not much need for "booklearnin'" under the bridges where trolls live.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

That may be true. But its only true when things don't occur in a system of patterns. They do here.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That logical fallacy doesn’t hold so easily when multiple cases are supporting that event X caused event Y. 

I certainly didn't say that Republican presidents cause recessions.  The causes of economic downturns (and upswings) are far too complex to be lain at the feet of any one person or even a single institution.

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12 minutes ago, pilight said:

I certainly didn't say that Republican presidents cause recessions.  The causes of economic downturns (and upswings) are far too complex to be lain at the feet of any one person or even a single institution.

Tell that to @Reagan04 since he's the one implying that you are.

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On 5/7/2020 at 11:40 PM, Zenobiyl said:

@billay I suspect his endgame is to reopen the country and (ideally) get the economy back on track/recovering in time for the general election. It’s a shit plan in my opinion, but I can’t think of a better one in his situation. Recessions generally seem to be republicans’ Achilles heel.

 

I agree with you but wouldnt some of these states end off being better opening end of May and June with more testing that way theres more testing and a plan on how to Target hot spots? Also the hospitals wont be over crowded and there will be plenty of PPEs. Economy isnt coming back for awhile but you can manage it in phases and limited the mortality rate?

Instead it just seems rushed and there will be more deaths and about the same results for the economy. 

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On 5/8/2020 at 11:07 AM, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

I get what you're saying but let's not pretend this is the same. The economy was going to go to shit with the whole world shutting down due to a virus we dont have any gripe on yet.

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@billay that’s a fair point. It’s possible he realizes the economy won’t recover and wants to pin the blame on democrats instead. The protests against lockdowns help this narrative, and he may get votes if the economic downturn is seen as the Democrat’s fault rather than the republicans.

 

Its also possible he really believes the economy will recover once the country is reopened. That would be very naive in my opinion, however.

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3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

@billay that’s a fair point. It’s possible he realizes the economy won’t recover and wants to pin the blame on democrats instead. The protests against lockdowns help this narrative, and he may get votes if the economic downturn is seen as the Democrat’s fault rather than the republicans.

 

Its also possible he really believes the economy will recover once the country is reopened. That would be very naive in my opinion, however.

That's an interesting take just not sure how it would work re:blaming Democrats. 

I suppose it could work if come summer this thing slows down and then there will be investigations about Biden and his son again. Trying to cause another ugly campaign and installing distrust to help lower the overall voter turnout.

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May 11th map: Trump seems to be slowly making inroads on the map, possibly due to the Tara Reade scandal hitting Biden. In recent polls, both TX and OH are going +3 to Trump. Therefore, these states are flipping back to his side on the map: yyBjN.png

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May 12th map: Biden gets a +8 lead in WI in the latest poll. However, worrisome for Biden is that Trump's approval has been slowly going up and Biden's favorability has been slowly going down. XO1Y4.png

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34 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Why isn’t Utah dark red? That state is supposed to be the most conservative in the nation.

Because many people in Utah don't like Trump, who himself is NOT a Conservative, ideologically.

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52 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Why isn’t Utah dark red? That state is supposed to be the most conservative in the nation.

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

Western Conservatism has always had the most Libertarian genes spliced into its DNA.

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Western Conservatism has always had the most Libertarian genes spliced into its DNA.

Exactly.  

Western conservatives have a distrust towards DC that stems from the "old West". Southern conservatives have a strong emphasis on cultural/religion views. North Eastern/Midwestern are more centered on economics. 

 

 

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May 13th Map: Biden is +11 in that one district in NE, and he's +1 in GA in two new polls. It's also interesting that both GA Senate seats (one is a special election) are showing Democrats within the margin of victory. If Biden overperforms in November, we could see two Democratic Senators in GA. While Biden is losing favorability, and the national margin has gone from 6 pts for Biden to about 5 pts, Trump has to be worried that the Direction of the Country Poll has gone the wrong way for Trump by over 10 pts. Generic Dems are also killing Republicans in polls. 

B8r93.png

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I wouldn't put much stock in the GA senate polls until we at least know who the candidates are.

 

We know incumbent David Perdue is unopposed for the Republican nomination for the full term election.  The Democrat will likely be either Jos Ossoff or Teresa Tomlinson, though there are some lesser known candidates. 

 

The special election is a free-for-all, with six Reoublican, eight Democrats, a Libertarian, and four independents so far.  

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17 hours ago, vcczar said:

Actually, ID and WY are usually more pro-Republican. Yeah, Utah is like Arizona and Texas in that it has a lot of Conservatives that really hate Trump. Western and Southwestern Conservatives are different from Middle America, Midwest, and Southern conservaitves. Northeast Conservatives are also different, but they probably have more in common with Western Conservatives. 

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I would hold my breath on Georgia, Ohio, Texas, or even Florida flipping blue. Biden is the favorite to win even without them, but those 4 states are gonna be very tough to win against an incumbent republican.

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24 minutes ago, pilight said:

If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, he wins the election.

Incorrect in very many ways.

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