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VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


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April 22: State polls have been very few during the shutdown. A new poll has Biden up by +4 in Florida. Trump's approval and disapproval are now back to their norms, which isn't good for Trump. Biden leads in national polls, but this number is smaller than the numbers Clinton had at this time vs. Trump 4 years ago. Nevertheless, the map looks like this:

AxVn9.png

 

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April 22 Late Edition: New battleground states show Biden crushing Trump in key battleground states: dDGWv.png

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April 23: Biden surge increases! There have been three polls for MI, PA, WI, and FL in the last two days---all showing Biden beating Trump at or beyond the margin of error. In addition, North Carolina is now flipped for Biden, who leads +4. 

AxVQ3.png

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2 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I truly believe after everything is said and done that he carries all of these except FL and AZ, but still a landslide  election

If he fails to carry Florida and Arizona it won't be a landslide, it'll be rather close. 293-245 if my math is correct. A landslide is 350+.

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13 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

If he fails to carry Florida and Arizona it won't be a landslide, it'll be rather close. 293-245 if my math is correct. A landslide is 350+.

Yeah, the meaning of landslide in a partisan age is probably different than it used to be, but 350+ is probably correct. An argument could be made for 325+. I'd go with your definition with 325+ for near landslide. 

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Just now, TheMiddlePolitical said:

In relative terms to being against an incumbent. 

Not really, I would call 1980 the landslide to end all landslides when going up against an incumbent, but just look at 1992, 370-168, a landslide in its own right especially against an incumbent.

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I'd say 55% must be earned for a landslide popular vote. 53% is my criteria for near landslide. 

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15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'd say 55% must be earned for a landslide popular vote. 53% is my criteria for near landslide. 

55% being a "landslide victory," sounds kind of weird, by definition.

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

55% being a "landslide victory," sounds kind of weird, by definition.

It is, but it shows you how divided the USA is. We've had like 10 elections since Andrew Jackson that have had 55%+ popular vote by one party. 

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I'm going to start including shades of colors in the GE maps. This is for 4/25, if the election were held today:

B8x1o.png

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It will be interesting to see how the results change over the coming months. Biden has (for the most part) been out of the public eye, so the debates will be especially important this year (compared to previous years). 

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6 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

It will be interesting to see how the results change over the coming months. Biden has (for the most part) been out of the public eye, so the debates will be especially important this year (compared to previous years). 

If there are debates. 

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April 27 map: Latest poll has Biden barely winning in OH, and more polls confirm his lead in MI, WI, and PA. If the election were today, Biden would win in a landslide: 

kr81d.png

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April 29: This is crazy. Biden is +1 ahead of Trump in Texas in the latest poll. I doubt Biden wins by this margin, but if all the recent state polls are accurate, this is the election result if the election were today. LANDSLIDE BIDEN:

gA8QG.png

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May 1st update: Biden is still growing. He's losing by only -1 in Georgia. He's +7 in North Carolina. I shifted New Hampshire a shade down though since Biden is only +5 here: pp7Yd.png

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May 4th map: Not much has changed. A recent TX poll has Biden and Trump even in TX; however, the poll before that had Biden up by +1. Therefore, TX is still placed in Biden's camp, if the election were held today. The other change to this map is that Trump is now only +2 in Iowa, a state which was closer to +10 for Trump a few months ago. If this keeps up, then Iowa will be a battleground state.

All said, this is the worst state-by-state polling period of Trump's presidency so far. I do expect things to veer at least somewhat more in his direction once the lockdowns are over and the economy restarts. However, I think he needs something of a near full recovery, or clear signs towards one, to win reelection. 

ppNvz.png

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May 7th map: Only two significant polls have come out since the last update. One of them confirms that CO is out of Trump's reach by a large margin. The other shows BIden's support dropping in NV to only +4. Thus, while the EV count is the same, the depth of Biden's support has decreased in a key state: yyPzD.png

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@billay I suspect his endgame is to reopen the country and (ideally) get the economy back on track/recovering in time for the general election. It’s a shit plan in my opinion, but I can’t think of a better one in his situation. Recessions generally seem to be republicans’ Achilles heel.

 

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13 minutes ago, pilight said:

Seriously, the way we get a recession every time there's a Republican president you'd think people would stop believing they're better for the economy

I assume you mean in recent times.

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