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VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


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It's been almost a week since an update. There have been few polls, but considering that the Coronavirus is supposed to tank Trump, I'm resetting the tossup states that haven't had a poll in a week for Biden. Only OH, AZ, and FL have had recent polls. These are shown here:

ZPd6Q.png

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

It's been almost a week since an update. There have been few polls, but considering that the Coronavirus is supposed to tank Trump, I'm resetting the tossup states that haven't had a poll in a week for Biden. Only OH, AZ, and FL have had recent polls. These are shown here:

ZPd6Q.png

interesting to see biden lose florida but win ohio

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5 minutes ago, tzmb said:

interesting to see biden lose florida but win ohio

Yeah, I wonder if it has something to do with Trump making Florida his new "state of residence."

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17 minutes ago, tzmb said:

I think so, also look at Trump's approval by state on Morning Consult 

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/ Ohio has become somewhat opposed to Trump whereas Florida has stayed relatively slightly pro trump

Yeah, true. I used morning consult's tracking Trump fairly often. I just wish it also captured the favorability of Biden in the same states. 

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I think the bump that Trump has received from the Coronavirus could possibly be a bad thing for Biden. 

At this point the only Leadership that the people are seeing are from Trump, Sanders and other Senators (Dems and Reps)

The DEM leadership and Biden seems keen on losing the election. Biden should've been dominating the media this past week with proposals, criticism of Trump and show of Unity with Sanders. But he's nowhere to be found. 

Barring a recession, I dare say, 2020 is a Trump victory. 

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1 hour ago, CentristGuy said:

I think the bump that Trump has received from the Coronavirus could possibly be a bad thing for Biden. 

At this point the only Leadership that the people are seeing are from Trump, Sanders and other Senators (Dems and Reps)

The DEM leadership and Biden seems keen on losing the election. Biden should've been dominating the media this past week with proposals, criticism of Trump and show of Unity with Sanders. But he's nowhere to be found. 

Barring a recession, I dare say, 2020 is a Trump victory. 

What news are you reading? (I'm using TheHill most often, which is a centrist source). What bump for Trump? His polls are the same--no movement. Two of the three governors most cited as doing well in this crisis are Democrats, Cuomo and Newsom. DeWine is the GOP Gov. Meanwhile, DeSantis in Florida is getting the most negative press. 

I agree with what you are saying in regards to Biden. I think he has coronavirus or something. Sanders is raising millions to help the outbreak, none of it is going to his campaign. That's leadership. 

There will be a recession, so a Trump victory is unlikely, although not impossible. 

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40 minutes ago, vcczar said:

What news are you reading? (I'm using TheHill most often, which is a centrist source). What bump for Trump? His polls are the same--no movement. Two of the three governors most cited as doing well in this crisis are Democrats, Cuomo and Newsom. DeWine is the GOP Gov. Meanwhile, DeSantis in Florida is getting the most negative press. 

I agree with what you are saying in regards to Biden. I think he has coronavirus or something. Sanders is raising millions to help the outbreak, none of it is going to his campaign. That's leadership. 

There will be a recession, so a Trump victory is unlikely, although not impossible. 

I was referencing Trump's Approval Rating regarding the Virus. Though I don't think that would matter much in the election if a recession were to happen. 

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While there haven't been any state polls in a week, I can apply what I think happens if Trump loses the PV by only 3% vs. Biden. In this event, Trump wins the EC by flipping back AZ, PA, and WI from my previous map: KkPVZ.png

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33 minutes ago, vcczar said:

While there haven't been any state polls in a week, I can apply what I think happens if Trump loses the PV by only 3% vs. Biden. In this event, Trump wins the EC by flipping back AZ, PA, and WI from my previous map: KkPVZ.png

Color me absolutely floored if Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Ohio.

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40 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

Color me absolutely floored if Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Ohio.

Oops that's my mistake.

Update, as per @Reagan04's comment. I forgot to flip OH:

krpbp.png

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March 25th Map: First state poll in about 6 days has Biden winning Michigan. The AZ poll is less than a week old, so it still reflects AZ for Biden. I reverted the rest back to reflect Trump rising in the polls (momentum), which might help him in the tightest states.

For this map, Biden wins the PV by only 3%.

0mWeN.png 

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

March 25th Map: First state poll in about 6 days has Biden winning Michigan. The AZ poll is less than a week old, so it still reflects AZ for Biden. I reverted the rest back to reflect Trump rising in the polls (momentum), which might help him in the tightest states.

For this map, Biden wins the PV by only 3%.

0mWeN.png 

Virginia is probably going to be much closer this time without Tim Kaine

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15 minutes ago, tzmb said:

Virginia is probably going to be much closer this time without Tim Kaine

Actually that should be Blue 

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12 hours ago, tzmb said:

oh, that would put Biden at a win. Trump isn't in a great place right now.

Here's the corrected version:

N41OW.png

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March 26th Map: New state polls for the Rust Belt come out. WI is a tie in the poll, but I will give any ties to Trump in all situations. MI, PA, and OH are all within the margin of error, but the polls have Biden winning MI, and Trump winning OH and PA. The poll for AZ is now a week old, so I'm reverting it back to Trump for now, considering his approval is on the rise. 

While Trump's EC looks better in this map, and he's winning, Biden's PV lead margin goes from 3% to 4%. 

 

dDp8p.png

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April 1st Map: Both Trump's approval and head-to-head matchup vs Trump are starting to fall again, but only slightly. The latest WI poll has Biden winning by +3, which gives us this map. 

Trump still leads Biden in the EC, but Biden would win the PV:

O46R7.png

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April 5th Map: New MI poll has Biden and Trump tied. As stated, I'll award any state that is tied or even +2 Democrat to Trump. The WI poll is still new enough to keep this state blue. Biden would win the PV with this map. 

WPloX.png

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April 6th Map: New poll has Biden winning FL rather convincingly. The poll has Floridians favoring Biden, distrusting Trump but trusting DeSantis. The WI and MI polls are still recent enough to keep up here. Trump's approval is also falling back down to his norm. Biden is still winning the PV, as he has been in every one of these maps I've posted.:

1NkK0.png

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April 13th map: We have the first state polls in a week. Biden gets +1 in a new WI polls, but as per my policy that Biden need +3 to really win, this will flip back to Trump. Biden does get a decisive +9 in Michigan. While Biden does not take Utah, he loses by only -5 in that state. Florida's poll is over a week old, and as Biden's last poll lead wasn't decisive, it will flip back to Trump.

Biden would win the PV as always. It should be noted that Trump's approval has dropped from almost 46% down to almost 43% on average. Despite all signs showing Biden should crush Trump, the map still favors Trump:

JrYOy.png

 

 

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@vcczar It should be noted that you are prone to produce very optimistic maps for Trump. This makes sense since the last thing we want is a repeat of 2016's extremely Clinton-optimistic bias that held that Trump could never win.

And I get the need to balance that, but even then, I still think it's a bit much to say that Trump is the favorite in Hawaii.😉

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56 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar It should be noted that you are prone to produce very optimistic maps for Trump. This makes sense since the last thing we want is a repeat of 2016's extremely Clinton-optimistic bias that held that Trump could never win.

And I get the need to balance that, but even then, I still think it's a bit much to say that Trump is the favorite in Hawaii.😉

Hawaii was just an oversight on my part. I started the map all red and then filled in the blue. Here's the correction:

3dDnX.png

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