vcczar 1,229 Posted March 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 It's been almost a week since an update. There have been few polls, but considering that the Coronavirus is supposed to tank Trump, I'm resetting the tossup states that haven't had a poll in a week for Biden. Only OH, AZ, and FL have had recent polls. These are shown here: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tzmb 12 Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, vcczar said: It's been almost a week since an update. There have been few polls, but considering that the Coronavirus is supposed to tank Trump, I'm resetting the tossup states that haven't had a poll in a week for Biden. Only OH, AZ, and FL have had recent polls. These are shown here: interesting to see biden lose florida but win ohio Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, tzmb said: interesting to see biden lose florida but win ohio Yeah, I wonder if it has something to do with Trump making Florida his new "state of residence." Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tzmb 12 Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, vcczar said: Yeah, I wonder if it has something to do with Trump making Florida his new "state of residence." I think so, also look at Trump's approval by state on Morning Consult https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/ Ohio has become somewhat opposed to Trump whereas Florida has stayed relatively slightly pro trump Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, tzmb said: I think so, also look at Trump's approval by state on Morning Consult https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/ Ohio has become somewhat opposed to Trump whereas Florida has stayed relatively slightly pro trump Yeah, true. I used morning consult's tracking Trump fairly often. I just wish it also captured the favorability of Biden in the same states. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Centrist Emperor Kerzaris 50 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 I think the bump that Trump has received from the Coronavirus could possibly be a bad thing for Biden. At this point the only Leadership that the people are seeing are from Trump, Sanders and other Senators (Dems and Reps) The DEM leadership and Biden seems keen on losing the election. Biden should've been dominating the media this past week with proposals, criticism of Trump and show of Unity with Sanders. But he's nowhere to be found. Barring a recession, I dare say, 2020 is a Trump victory. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 1 hour ago, CentristGuy said: I think the bump that Trump has received from the Coronavirus could possibly be a bad thing for Biden. At this point the only Leadership that the people are seeing are from Trump, Sanders and other Senators (Dems and Reps) The DEM leadership and Biden seems keen on losing the election. Biden should've been dominating the media this past week with proposals, criticism of Trump and show of Unity with Sanders. But he's nowhere to be found. Barring a recession, I dare say, 2020 is a Trump victory. What news are you reading? (I'm using TheHill most often, which is a centrist source). What bump for Trump? His polls are the same--no movement. Two of the three governors most cited as doing well in this crisis are Democrats, Cuomo and Newsom. DeWine is the GOP Gov. Meanwhile, DeSantis in Florida is getting the most negative press. I agree with what you are saying in regards to Biden. I think he has coronavirus or something. Sanders is raising millions to help the outbreak, none of it is going to his campaign. That's leadership. There will be a recession, so a Trump victory is unlikely, although not impossible. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Centrist Emperor Kerzaris 50 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, vcczar said: What news are you reading? (I'm using TheHill most often, which is a centrist source). What bump for Trump? His polls are the same--no movement. Two of the three governors most cited as doing well in this crisis are Democrats, Cuomo and Newsom. DeWine is the GOP Gov. Meanwhile, DeSantis in Florida is getting the most negative press. I agree with what you are saying in regards to Biden. I think he has coronavirus or something. Sanders is raising millions to help the outbreak, none of it is going to his campaign. That's leadership. There will be a recession, so a Trump victory is unlikely, although not impossible. I was referencing Trump's Approval Rating regarding the Virus. Though I don't think that would matter much in the election if a recession were to happen. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2020 While there haven't been any state polls in a week, I can apply what I think happens if Trump loses the PV by only 3% vs. Biden. In this event, Trump wins the EC by flipping back AZ, PA, and WI from my previous map:Â Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Reagan04 661 Posted March 24, 2020 Report Share Posted March 24, 2020 33 minutes ago, vcczar said: While there haven't been any state polls in a week, I can apply what I think happens if Trump loses the PV by only 3% vs. Biden. In this event, Trump wins the EC by flipping back AZ, PA, and WI from my previous map:Â Color me absolutely floored if Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Ohio. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2020 40 minutes ago, Reagan04 said: Color me absolutely floored if Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Ohio. Oops that's my mistake. Update, as per @Reagan04's comment. I forgot to flip OH: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 March 25th Map: First state poll in about 6 days has Biden winning Michigan. The AZ poll is less than a week old, so it still reflects AZ for Biden. I reverted the rest back to reflect Trump rising in the polls (momentum), which might help him in the tightest states. For this map, Biden wins the PV by only 3%. Â Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tzmb 12 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, vcczar said: March 25th Map: First state poll in about 6 days has Biden winning Michigan. The AZ poll is less than a week old, so it still reflects AZ for Biden. I reverted the rest back to reflect Trump rising in the polls (momentum), which might help him in the tightest states. For this map, Biden wins the PV by only 3%. Â Virginia is probably going to be much closer this time without Tim Kaine Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 514 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, tzmb said: Virginia is probably going to be much closer this time without Tim Kaine Sorry, without who? (Couldn't resist...) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, tzmb said: Virginia is probably going to be much closer this time without Tim Kaine Actually that should be Blue Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tzmb 12 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 1 hour ago, vcczar said: Actually that should be Blue oh, that would put Biden at a win. Trump isn't in a great place right now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 12 hours ago, tzmb said: oh, that would put Biden at a win. Trump isn't in a great place right now. Here's the corrected version: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pilight 237 Posted March 26, 2020 Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 Biden won't win if he loses both Florida and Ohio Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted March 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2020 March 26th Map: New state polls for the Rust Belt come out. WI is a tie in the poll, but I will give any ties to Trump in all situations. MI, PA, and OH are all within the margin of error, but the polls have Biden winning MI, and Trump winning OH and PA. The poll for AZ is now a week old, so I'm reverting it back to Trump for now, considering his approval is on the rise. While Trump's EC looks better in this map, and he's winning, Biden's PV lead margin goes from 3% to 4%.  Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted April 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2020 April 1st Map: Both Trump's approval and head-to-head matchup vs Trump are starting to fall again, but only slightly. The latest WI poll has Biden winning by +3, which gives us this map. Trump still leads Biden in the EC, but Biden would win the PV: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted April 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2020 April 5th Map: New MI poll has Biden and Trump tied. As stated, I'll award any state that is tied or even +2 Democrat to Trump. The WI poll is still new enough to keep this state blue. Biden would win the PV with this map. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted April 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 April 6th Map: New poll has Biden winning FL rather convincingly. The poll has Floridians favoring Biden, distrusting Trump but trusting DeSantis. The WI and MI polls are still recent enough to keep up here. Trump's approval is also falling back down to his norm. Biden is still winning the PV, as he has been in every one of these maps I've posted.: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted April 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2020 April 13th map: We have the first state polls in a week. Biden gets +1 in a new WI polls, but as per my policy that Biden need +3 to really win, this will flip back to Trump. Biden does get a decisive +9 in Michigan. While Biden does not take Utah, he loses by only -5 in that state. Florida's poll is over a week old, and as Biden's last poll lead wasn't decisive, it will flip back to Trump. Biden would win the PV as always. It should be noted that Trump's approval has dropped from almost 46% down to almost 43% on average. Despite all signs showing Biden should crush Trump, the map still favors Trump: Â Â Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Reagan04 661 Posted April 13, 2020 Report Share Posted April 13, 2020 @vcczar It should be noted that you are prone to produce very optimistic maps for Trump. This makes sense since the last thing we want is a repeat of 2016's extremely Clinton-optimistic bias that held that Trump could never win. And I get the need to balance that, but even then, I still think it's a bit much to say that Trump is the favorite in Hawaii. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,229 Posted April 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Reagan04 said: @vcczar It should be noted that you are prone to produce very optimistic maps for Trump. This makes sense since the last thing we want is a repeat of 2016's extremely Clinton-optimistic bias that held that Trump could never win. And I get the need to balance that, but even then, I still think it's a bit much to say that Trump is the favorite in Hawaii. Hawaii was just an oversight on my part. I started the map all red and then filled in the blue. Here's the correction: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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