Jump to content
270soft Forum

VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election


Recommended Posts

Every Monday, I'm going to post a forecasting map based off polls, analyses, and such for the 2020 General Election. I will use only whoever is the Democratic Frontrunner vs. Trump. 

Map for 2/24/2020

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump: 269-269 tie!!! Sanders wins the Popular Vote. US House is Democrat but GOP has more state delegates, likely handing the victory to Trump.

Seems fitting for the first map. Sanders is saved by winning back that one odd Maine district, which likes Sanders a lot. The latest polls actually have Sanders winning WI, but it's a close margin and Trump was winning big in another recent poll. In all of these maps, when conflicted, I'll weigh in favor of Trump, since I think he's most likely to win in a margin of error situation. 

I will use this same thread to post updated maps. 

B8gvk.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 134
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • 2 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I'm not convinced that Trump will lose Florida or Arizona -- but even if he gets those states, we still win with 283.

I thinks Biden can win FL. He’s well liked there. AZ and NC will be harder. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this site is extremely bias towards Trump. FL is his even during the "Blue Wave" Republicans were successful in 18' and Bernies comments don't help.

 

Honestly the D's talking points is kinda confusing. This cycle they have pandered to the black vote and I get it during the primaries it's worked but Trump is going to win the south, the reason Trump won was because the Rust Belt, white middle class and lower class voters. IMO Biden is the presumptive nominee but he's not going to turn out alot of huge numbers in urban areas and the dem attack against the coal industry doesn't exactly help in areas of OH & WV. It's going to be another close election but I don;'t see Biden flipping WI, OH, or FL. Where as Bernie would be much more competitive in 2 of those 3 and would be better at turning out minority vote with the DNC behind him.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Wiw said:

No way is either of them going to flip Florida, if it's becoming increasingly conservative.

Have you visited there lately? Or do you believe Trump's resort is radiating psychic waves of growing conservative, background brainwashing energy?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Neither. I only heard they're becoming increasingly anti-LGBT.

Is that the sole definition of Conservativism to you? Here's another piece of news for you may not have considered. Florida has a very large Hispanic population. A lot of Hispanic are actually anti-LGBTQ. Machismo sub-culture is not just misogynistic and bullying and competitive between men, traditionally. But, Trump is not all popular with Hispanics. So, I'm willing to bet that mutual bigotry of the LGBTQ communities is not going to bring to Hispanics to the ballot box to vote for Trump.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Patine said:

Is that the sole definition of Conservativism to you? Here's another piece of news for you may not have considered. Florida has a very large Hispanic population. A lot of Hispanic are actually anti-LGBTQ. Machismo sub-culture is not just misogynistic and bullying and competitive between men, traditionally. But, Trump is not all popular with Hispanics. So, I'm willing to bet that mutual bigotry of the LGBTQ communities is not going to bring to Hispanics to the ballot box to vote for Trump.

 

17 minutes ago, Wiw said:

No way is either of them going to flip Florida, if it's becoming increasingly conservative.

 

11 hours ago, billay said:

I think this site is extremely bias towards Trump. FL is his even during the "Blue Wave" Republicans were successful in 18' and Bernies comments don't help.

 

Honestly the D's talking points is kinda confusing. This cycle they have pandered to the black vote and I get it during the primaries it's worked but Trump is going to win the south, the reason Trump won was because the Rust Belt, white middle class and lower class voters. IMO Biden is the presumptive nominee but he's not going to turn out alot of huge numbers in urban areas and the dem attack against the coal industry doesn't exactly help in areas of OH & WV. It's going to be another close election but I don;'t see Biden flipping WI, OH, or FL. Where as Bernie would be much more competitive in 2 of those 3 and would be better at turning out minority vote with the DNC behind him.

The more recent map is for Biden. I don't think Sanders (my preferred candidate) can win FL but Biden can. The state is very pro-Biden. He was landsliding his competition even during his worst polling days. As such, the state Democrats are more likely to be energized to vote for him than they would be for Sanders and more so than they were for Clinton in 2016. The state went for Obama/Biden twice. I agree that the state is getting more conservative (outside of the cities), but it isn't yet Ohio, which I think is permanently Red now. It's still a battleground state. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a map for March 7, which changes map slightly. Biden still is leading, but Trump flips MI and NH. I'll continue to update the GE map based off the latest state-by-state polls:

WPDbg.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

I am from Florida, this state isn't trending in any one direction. We're R+3 generally, if Biden is winning the NPV by at least 3% he's winning Florida.

Link to post
Share on other sites

March 9 Map for Biden vs. Trump. Trump has flipped AZ and PA since the last map. The state polls show some strength for Trump, but he's losing national polls by 6 pts. Generic Democrats are leading Generic Republicans +9. It's been about a week since a NH, FL, or NC poll, so I'll keep the latest results as they are. Despite this map, it seems unlikely to me that Biden will win both FL and NC, especially if losing NH, PA, MI, and WI. It seems a win in FL and NC would likely mean a win in these four states. 

gA4Rj.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • vcczar changed the title to VCCzar's Forecasting Maps for 2020 General Election

March 10th Map has Trump flipping Florida and taking the EC win. He still trails in the PV by a large margin. The Biden electability argument seems to be undermined by the latest state polls. Ever since taking a large lead over Sanders, Trump has improved his state polling. This isn't good for Democrats. Biden can fix this by making the other lanes in the Democratic Party happy--allow Warren and Sanders to submit a list of recommended VPs and have Biden pick from that list. 

Jrrzv.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Where are you seeing polls with Trump beating Biden in MI, PA, and WI? The ones that came out on Monday have Biden and Bernie ahead in all three:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

FiveThirtyEight includes RCP polls and includes others that RCP doesn't include, for whatever reason. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/24/2020 at 10:23 AM, vcczar said:

Every Monday, I'm going to post a forecasting map based off polls, analyses, and such for the 2020 General Election. I will use only whoever is the Democratic Frontrunner vs. Trump. 

Map for 2/24/2020

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump: 269-269 tie!!! Sanders wins the Popular Vote. US House is Democrat but GOP has more state delegates, likely handing the victory to Trump.

Seems fitting for the first map. Sanders is saved by winning back that one odd Maine district, which likes Sanders a lot. The latest polls actually have Sanders winning WI, but it's a close margin and Trump was winning big in another recent poll. In all of these maps, when conflicted, I'll weigh in favor of Trump, since I think he's most likely to win in a margin of error situation. 

I will use this same thread to post updated maps. 

B8gvk.png

 

I wonder if a result such as this would set up a faithless elector situation where it would allow Congress to elect someone besides Trump and Biden/Sanders

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I wonder if a result such as this would set up a faithless elector situation where it would allow Congress to elect someone besides Trump and Biden/Sanders

Probably. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

In a recent state poll, both Biden and Sanders are beating Trump in Wisconsin. This map shows WI flipping back to Dems. Biden vs. Trump (Mar 12). Biden would win the PV by a large margin despite losing the EC here. 

l44VE.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

March 13th map has Biden flipping AZ (by contrast, the same poll shows Trump crushing Sanders in AZ). Trump is still leading in this evolving map; however, he is losing in the PV significantly:

zLLg4.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Wiw said:

The solution is to move a good chunk of Democrats into a Republican-leaning state. That should tip the odds to their favour.

That was the strategy for Bleeding Kansas and for China when it got control of Tibet. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

March 16 map: Latest polls confirm Arizona favoring Biden (every AZ state poll in the last two weeks have Biden beating Trump here). In a shocker, the latest OH poll has Biden (and Sanders) beating Trump in @Actinguy's home state. Despite these, a new Florida polls has Trump still leading here. Nevertheless, my latest map has Biden winning the EC vs. Trump for the first time in a few maps. Biden has led in PV in every map. 

4B7z2.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...