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The case against Biden


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This is probably the best overall summary of the case against Biden I have read as of yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/joe-biden-electable-trump-2020-election

General election head-to-head polls suggest Biden is most electable. Yet there are a lot of other factors that suggest he has significant weaknesses. I tend to agree with Robinson - the electability argument for Biden depends on where the puck is now, not where it will be in Nov. 2020, and that is likely to change.

Will Biden's polling advantage persist, or perhaps even increase? Or will he be relentlessly hammered once he wins the nomination and then lose handily?

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

This is probably the best overall summary of the case against Biden I have read as of yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/joe-biden-electable-trump-2020-election

General election head-to-head polls suggest Biden is most electable. Yet there are a lot of other factors that suggest he has significant weaknesses. I tend to agree with Robinson - the electability argument for Biden depends on where the puck is now, not where it will be in Nov. 2020, and that is likely to change.

Will Biden's polling advantage persist, or perhaps even increase? Or will he be relentlessly hammered once he wins the nomination and then lose handily?

I've considered just about everything he's saying. I do think he is a liability if his campaign, DNC, etc., aren't prepared for these attacks, and especially if he ends up being noticeably more incoherent than Trump. They're both equally incoherent to me. 

I'm still mostly confident Biden won't win the nomination without a win or strong 2nd place in both IA and NH. I think his support collapses if he doesn't get this. I think if he wins one of these, he likely wins the election. 

I also think the impeachment thing is helping him as he is pitted against Trump in this almost as if we are already in a general election. I'm not sure if prolonging the time before Senate trial is, in part, an effort to help or hurt Biden. Possibly it isn't strategic to the IA primary. 

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35 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure if prolonging the time before Senate trial is

It is now looking like there's a chance the Senate won't vote directly on the articles of impeachment at all.

Perhaps I should have included that as an option in the Senate voting poll.

 

38 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm still mostly confident Biden won't win the nomination without a win or strong 2nd place in both IA and NH

Ya, I think he needs to do decent in both or his goose is cooked. 2 third places and I think that means someone else will emerge as the moderate option.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

It is now looking like there's a chance the Senate won't vote directly on the articles of impeachment at all.

Perhaps I should have included that as an option in the Senate voting poll.

 

Ya, I think he needs to do decent in both or his goose is cooked. 2 third places and I think that means someone else will emerge as the moderate option.

I can see both Dems and GOP accepting no trial because they can both spin this in their favor. 

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4 hours ago, admin_270 said:

This is probably the best overall summary of the case against Biden I have read as of yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/04/joe-biden-electable-trump-2020-election

General election head-to-head polls suggest Biden is most electable. Yet there are a lot of other factors that suggest he has significant weaknesses. I tend to agree with Robinson - the electability argument for Biden depends on where the puck is now, not where it will be in Nov. 2020, and that is likely to change.

Will Biden's polling advantage persist, or perhaps even increase? Or will he be relentlessly hammered once he wins the nomination and then lose handily?

He'll probably lose by a similar margin as Hillary Clinton. The most electable candidate would be Sanders, because although he has that socialist label attached to him, he's pretty effective in pivoting to broad issues that have majority support, or at least sound reasonable. In addition, he's able to take Trump to task on things like trade, which Clinton and Biden failed and will fail to do in a General Election. It will be close, but I think if Bernie is the nominee, he'll win. Biden won't excite enough voters and his record is way too easy to attack. The worst thing for Sanders is his 1980s Soviet stuff, which was so long ago and had no effect on how he governed. Anyways, just my hot take, lol.

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17 hours ago, Talique said:

He'll probably lose by a similar margin as Hillary Clinton. The most electable candidate would be Sanders, because although he has that socialist label attached to him, he's pretty effective in pivoting to broad issues that have majority support, or at least sound reasonable. In addition, he's able to take Trump to task on things like trade, which Clinton and Biden failed and will fail to do in a General Election. It will be close, but I think if Bernie is the nominee, he'll win. Biden won't excite enough voters and his record is way too easy to attack. The worst thing for Sanders is his 1980s Soviet stuff, which was so long ago and had no effect on how he governed. Anyways, just my hot take, lol.

Sanders did vote on the 1990's Crime bill and has a relative iffy position on guns that can be seen as lackluster; and I think you're underestimating how the attack ads of Sanders vacationing in the Soviet Union(an odd vacation spot lol) are a Republican dream. I love Sanders for reinvigorating the left, but I'm skeptical he's the most electable.  

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