Iowa prediction thread

[admin_270 833]

Happy New Year everyone! With almost exactly a month before the Iowa caucus, it's time for people to put down their Democratic party predictions.

You get 20 points if you accurately predict who comes in 1st, 10 points if you accurately predict who comes in 2nd, 5 points 3rd, 2 points 4th, and 1 point for 5th.

The winner(s) will get 1 year added to their Infinity subscription. Thread will close 5 pm, January 3rd, 2020.

 

[admin_270 833]

As of right now, RCP averages for Iowa are

1. Buttigieg 22%
2. Sanders 20%
3. Biden 18.8%
4. Warren 16%
5. Klobuchar 6.3%
6. Booker 2.8%
7. Steyer 2.5%
8. Yang 2.3%
9. Gabbard 2.0%
10. Bloomberg 1.3%
11. Castro 0.5%
12. Bennet 0.3%.

[Conservative Elector 2 333]

1. Buttigieg

2. Biden

3. Sanders

4. Warren

5. Klobuchar

[lolandrewlmao 0]

1. Warren

2. Sanders

3. Biden

4. Buttigieg

5. Klobuchar

[Hestia11 572]

1. Sanders

2. Buttigieg

3. Biden

4. Klobuchar

5. Warren

[TheLiberalKitten 296]

1.Biden

2.Buttigieg

3.Sanders

4.Warren

5.Klobuchar

[Rodja 51]

IA

1.Buttigieg

2.Sanders

3.Biden

4.Warren

5.Klobuchar

NH

1.Sanders

2.Buttigieg

3.Warren

4.Biden

5.Yang

 

[Actinguy 862]

Fun!

I hate to just follow the polls and predict that nothing interesting will happen — but that’s my read.

1. Buttigieg

2. Bernie

3. Biden

4. Warren

5. Klobuchar

[Herbert Hoover 199]

I'm following my gut, which says bear Iowa is going to be just about what the polls say it will be.

1. Buttigieg

2. Sanders

3. Biden

4. Warren

5. Klobuchar

[Kingthero 8]

1. Biden

2. Sanders

3. Buttigieg

4. Warren

5. Steyer

[pilight 237]

2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Happy New Year everyone! With almost exactly a month before the Iowa caucus, it's time for people to put down their predictions.

You get 20 points if you accurately predict who comes in 1st, 10 points if you accurately predict who comes in 2nd, 5 points 3rd, 2 points 4th, and 1 point for 5th.

The winner(s) will get 1 year added to their Infinity subscription. Thread will close 5 pm, January 3rd, 2020.

 

1 Donald Trump

2 Bill Weld

3 Joe Walsh

4 Mark Sanford

5 Tom Hoefling

[admin_270 833]

5 minutes ago, pilight said:

1 Donald Trump

2 Bill Weld

3 Joe Walsh

4 Mark Sanford

5 Tom Hoefling

I've updated the topic to specify the Democratic party caucus. 

[pilight 237]

16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I've updated the topic to specify the Democratic party caucus. 

[TheMiddlePolitical 98]

1.Sanders 

2.Buttigieg

3.Warren 
4.Biden
5.Yang

[TheMiddlePolitical 98]

3 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

1. Sanders

2. Buttigieg

3. Biden

4. Klobuchar

5. Warren

I’d almost expect Warren to dropout if this happened

[Patine 467]

3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Happy New Year everyone! With almost exactly a month before the Iowa caucus, it's time for people to put down their Democratic party predictions.

You get 20 points if you accurately predict who comes in 1st, 10 points if you accurately predict who comes in 2nd, 5 points 3rd, 2 points 4th, and 1 point for 5th.

The winner(s) will get 1 year added to their Infinity subscription. Thread will close 5 pm, January 3rd, 2020.

 

The winding Primary vote route, starting at Iowa and New Hampshire, and ending with (I don't even know the last States to vote, anymore) seems very unrepresentative and imbalanced to me. Iowa and New Hampshire get full vote of every candidate going into the Primary cycle, but the drop-out rate means later States get less actual candidates to vote for, until finally the last bunch of States usually get two stragglers, or one candidate by acclamation. The later States down the line get cheated by, and beholden to, decisions of earlier States they have no vote in effectively limiting their own choices. And these early States never rotate election-to-election, either - they're always the same, for some reason. What a scam of an unrepresentative Primary system. And then members of a given party unhappy with their nominee are constantly told "it was the choice of voters of that party." That's just malarkey, if you look at it realistically.

[jvikings1 40]

3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Happy New Year everyone! With almost exactly a month before the Iowa caucus, it's time for people to put down their Democratic party predictions.

You get 20 points if you accurately predict who comes in 1st, 10 points if you accurately predict who comes in 2nd, 5 points 3rd, 2 points 4th, and 1 point for 5th.

The winner(s) will get 1 year added to their Infinity subscription. Thread will close 5 pm, January 3rd, 2020.

 

1. Sanders

2. Buttigieg

3. Biden

4. Warren

5. Klobuchar

[admin_270 833]

27 minutes ago, Patine said:

they're always the same

IA and NH are small, middle of the road states. Helps candidates without $s or name recognition (to start) to compete, and so increases chances party will find best candidate for general election.

For example, Bloomberg trying to buy the nomination with a Super Tuesday strategy becomes more difficult.

[Patine 467]

27 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

IA and NH are small, middle of the road states. Helps candidates without $s or name recognition (to start) to compete, and so increases chances party will find best candidate for general election.

For example, Bloomberg trying to buy the nomination with a Super Tuesday strategy becomes more difficult.

But, what about the last bunch of States to vote, and how they never get much choice, if any...

[Reagan04 658]

1. Buttigieg

2. Biden

3. Sanders

4. Warren

5. Klobuchar

[admin_270 833]

18 minutes ago, Patine said:

But, what about the last bunch of States to vote, and how they never get much choice, if any...

Trade-off.

[Patine 467]

2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trade-off.

What do the voters in those latter-voting States get as part of their "trade-off" for being denied the fundamental and most meaningful reason to vote in a Primary?

[admin_270 833]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

What do the voters in those latter-voting States get as part of their "trade-off" for being denied the fundamental and most meaningful reason to vote in a Primary?

A (hopefully) better candidate for their party who didn't buy the election or coast to a win based on name recognition.

[Patine 467]

4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

A (hopefully) better candidate for their party who didn't buy the election or coast to a win based on name recognition.

I fail to comprehend the logic of what you're saying here. The plutocrats, whether as candidates, or buying, funding, and bribing them, will always have an inordinate and disproportionate amount of power and influence over the voters themselves until the campaign laws and other things (like the Citizens' United ruling) are clamped down on firmly by an Administration and Congress that value integrity, their constituents, and their Constitutionals mandate of power over their personal pocketbooks.

[Actinguy 862]

29 minutes ago, Patine said:

But, what about the last bunch of States to vote, and how they never get much choice, if any...

To my understanding, they actually choose to be last.

why, I don’t know.  But states are largely allowed to choose when they want to have their primary, after IA and NH (and potentially SC and NV, I’m not sure if those two are hard coded or not.)

Perhaps they want final say in case it comes down to a final 2 or 3 and they can play king (or queen) maker.

If I recall correctly, while it was clear a Trump would get the “most” votes in the 2016 Republican primary, it looked like it could come down to the wire on whether he would get “enough” votes.