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"Meet The Voters Who Will Decide the 2020 Election"

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According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 48% of American voters are committed to voting against Donald Trump, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.

And 34% say they are committed to voting for Trump, regardless of who the Democrat is.

That leaves 18% uncommitted for the general election so far.  Who are they?

"Squishy Republicans" or "Nominally Republicans" -- generally, young men who identify as independent or moderate.  

Diving into the data for this group in particular, Trump generally has a 55% approval rating with them, they believe Trump did something wrong in Ukraine but should not be impeached, and in congressional matchups, they prefer a generic Republican over a generic Democrat by a 20 point margin.

So...that's Republicans.  And yet they're not willing to endorse Trump -- at least, not yet.

For Trump to duplicate his 2016 popular vote, he'll need to win 2/3's of them.  To tie the Democrats current 48% popular vote support, he'll need to win 80% of them.

Of this group of undecided "squishy Republicans"...

40% are enthusiastic/comfortable with re-electing Trump.  59% have reservations or are uncomfortable about re-electing him -- including 21% who are "VERY uncomfortable" re-electing him.  

37% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Bernie.  59% have reservations or are uncomfortable.  34% are very uncomfortable.  

30% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Biden.  67% have reservations or are uncomfortable, including 32% who are very uncomfortable.

23% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Yang.  24% have reservations/uncomfortable, with 9% very uncomfortable.  (Notably, that leaves 53% of squishy Republicans who apparently have no opinion of Yang at all, at this point.)

18% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Bloomberg.  49% have reservations/uncomfortable, with 19% very uncomfortable.  

18% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Buttigieg.  32% have reservations/uncomfortable, with 17% very uncomfortable.  (50% apparently undecided)

17% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Warren.  60% have reservations/uncomfortable, 33% very uncomfortable.  

12% are enthusiastic/comfortable electing Klobuchar.  26% have reservations/uncomfortable, 12% very uncomfortable. (A whopping 62% apparently not paying much attention to Klobuchar yet.)

We can parse these numbers a lot of different ways.  The NBC article suggests Warren's numbers are the worst, apparently comparing the enthusiastic/comfortable to the reservations/uncomfortable and finding a 43% deficit.  That's one solid take.

Another take is that a whopping 2/3 of these "in play" voters are actually most concerned about Biden (67% reservations/uncomfortable/32% very uncomfortable).  That's surprising to me, as he's supposed to be the most electable one.  I imagine this largely has to do with this age/mental prowess in the debates.  

A third take is that Yang, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg are the least despised candidates for these voters -- but also the least known.  

And a fourth take is that Bloomberg, who has only recently declared and has yet to appear in a debate, is the least despised among the candidates who are actually known by more than 50% of the respondents.

Final take from me -- Trump has to get 66% of these voters if he wants to tie his 2016 popular vote totals -- but 59% have reservations or are uncomfortable/very uncomfortable re-electing him.



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