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Sen. Harris ending her campaign


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She and Beto are living proofs how momentum is easy thing to lose.In June she looked like she can win this thing.She was never among my favorite candidates but i didnt expect her to drop out before New Year.

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Harris says she withdrew because she ran out of money.

Her campaign raised $36 million as of Oct. 1st and had $10.5M in cash on hand as of then.

At that point, she had raised almost as much as Biden, and was 4th among candidates in fundraising.*

*If you include Steyer, 5th among candidates.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Harris says she withdrew because she ran out of money.

Her campaign raised $36 million as of Oct. 1st and had $10.5M in cash on hand as of then.

At that point, she had raised almost as much as Biden, and was 4th among candidates in fundraising.*

*If you include Steyer, 5th among candidates.

Yep -- but how much was she going to have to spend to become even a top four contender?

Biden doesn't necessarily have to raise much to remain in #1 contention thanks to name recognition and public ties to Obama's legacy.

Kamala had an uphill battle just to reach a consistent fourth, and I'm sure donors were abandoning her as a result.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Beto, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, Harris, ... All considered serious contenders at one point, none of which even made it to Iowa!

I donated to Hickenlooper and really would have loved him to be the President, but I think one of those 4 is not like the other :(

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59 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

https://medium.com/@KamalaHarris/i-am-suspending-my-campaign-today-6dca8cefb252

 

Wonder how the picture will continue to shape up. This seemed like a long time coming though.

 

48 minutes ago, Rodja said:

She and Beto are living proofs how momentum is easy thing to lose.In June she looked like she can win this thing.She was never among my favorite candidates but i didnt expect her to drop out before New Year.

 

29 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Yep -- but how much was she going to have to spend to become even a top four contender?

Biden doesn't necessarily have to raise much to remain in #1 contention thanks to name recognition and public ties to Obama's legacy.

Kamala had an uphill battle just to reach a consistent fourth, and I'm sure donors were abandoning her as a result.

 

2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Beto, Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, Harris, ... All considered serious contenders at one point, none of which even made it to Iowa!

The, a big supporter of the largest form of slavery practiced in the Modern U.S., a known of advocate of the crooked judiciary that screws over due process and the concept of "justice for all," as well, disproportionately hurting African-Americans through such policies, while deceptively touting her partially Black heritage as an electoral asset, dropping out doesn't make me sad at all. She's one of the infamous trope of a criminal with lawyer's credentials.

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Her campaign roll-out was so slick and well done, the day she announced, it looked as if she'd won the nomination already.  I thought she'd do way better than this, if you had asked me 10 months ago, to be honest.

But was the problem.  The general sense people had about Harris (from my observation) is that she was too slick - too "politiciany", meandering around directly answering questions instead of just answering them.  I think a lot of the older rules are getting thrown out the window, some in politics get that, and some don't.  Love him or hate him, Trump is a perfect example of this phenomenon.  I always got the sense that Harris was going to play by the older rules.

Her flip-flop on health care, the fizzled attack on Biden at the debate, and just the fact that she had members of her own family running her own campaign were all bad signs.  I never knew what she stood for, what the core message was or what her priorities would be.  She was too centrist to appeal to the lefties, and too far left to appeal to the centrists.  She was running on messages of equal justice for all, which conflicted with her record as a tough cop.

My guess is if Biden somehow flops over the finish line and wins the nomination, he'll pick her as VP.  She'd also be a decent choice for Buttigieg's VP.  And, of course, she could serve as AG or Supreme Court justice, where I think she has potential to be excellent.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Why?

They seem to get along quite well, personally.  They often speak fondly of each other, and he was silent just today when asked about the possibility of choosing her as VP.  That's an important, but often unspoken part of choosing potential VPs.

Plus, it complements Biden in many areas where he's weak.  I can elaborate on that if need be.

And it fits my theory that the Democratic ticket will not have two white men on it in 2020.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

It seems to me Biden's main weakness is that he needs to keep the grassroots left in the game. Harris doesn't appeal to those very much.

I think Biden also has weaknesses with his record and statements on minorities, and we're even seeing some signs of cracking in how much minority voters support him.  He's been coasting on having a black friend in the form of Barack Obama, but that's not going to last forever.

The strongest demographic the Democratic Party has is black women - they turn out something like 97% for Democrats.  They are about as close to a unanimous voting bloc as you can get.  Anything to help turn out these voters is great for the Democrats, and surely Biden's team knows this.  I think Harris - or maybe Susan Rice - are the only likely candidates Biden could pick from if he was trying to turn things up to 11 with this voter group.

Somewhat tied into that is his record on the Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas hearings.  I think Harris helps deflect from that too.  And given Biden's gaffes/rambling nonsense, I think it would be wise to pick from a pool of significantly younger candidates.

And I do think Harris is seen at least somewhat further to the left than Biden, at least enough to be acceptable to all but the most extreme of Democratic voters.  Even Biden has moved further to the left compared to how he used to be.  And the Democratic Party is not exactly majority progressive - there are more moderates who identify as Democrats than people often think.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The beginning of the end was here.

 

Yeah, Gabbard's attack worked better on Harris than on Buttigieg. 

I wonder where Harris's 4-5% will go. Apparently, the largest chunk of Harris supporters stated that Warren was their next choice. Biden was 2nd. Buttigieg 3rd. Sanders 4th. Warren has lost momentum, so I expect Biden and Buttigieg to benefit. They might add 2% each to their total % and Warren might get 1%. The poll which asked about 2nd choices was made when Warren had momentum. 

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@darkmoon72

Wasn't that attack on Biden by Harris at the June 27th debate? Her polling shot up after that, going from 7% on June 26th to 15% on July 4th, briefly becoming 2nd in polling.

Gabbard's attack came at the next debate, on July 31st. At that point, Harris' %s had dropped from 15% to 11%. But then shortly afterwards dropped to 8%, so it seems there was a causal connection.

So 1st, her debate performance where she shot up and stayed there for about 2 weeks, 2nd, slow deterioration of polling for the next 2 weeks, then 3rd Gabbard attack which leads to further sharp drop, 4th, continued slow drop in polls to withdrawing at about 3.5%.

Perhaps it's more accurate for me to say Gabbard's attack perpetuated her % drop, and made it much harder for her to come back. So you're probably right - something happened after the initial debate that was the beginning of Harris' failed bid.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@darkmoon72

Wasn't that attack on Biden by Harris at the June 27th debate? Her polling shot up after that, going from 7% on June 26th to 15% on July 4th, briefly becoming 2nd in polling.

Gabbard's attack came at the next debate, on July 31st. At that point, Harris' %s had dropped from 15% to 11%. But then shortly afterwards dropped to 8%, so it seems there was a causal connection.

So 1st, her debate performance where she shot up and stayed there for about 2 weeks, 2nd, slow deterioration of polling for the next 2 weeks, then 3rd Gabbard attack which leads to further sharp drop, 4th, continued slow drop in polls to withdrawing at about 3.5%.

Perhaps it's more accurate for me to say Gabbard's attack perpetuated her % drop, and made it much harder for her to come back. So you're probably right - something happened after the initial debate that was the beginning of Harris' failed bid.

You're correct about her initial polling bounce - people seemed to respond well, in the moment, to her attack on Biden.

But I remember over the next several days, the attack unraveled, and it got brought up multiple times until finally Harris found herself agreeing with Biden and taking the exact same position he had - that she was opposed to federally mandated busing (which itself hasn't been a real issue for the Democrats since the 1970s).  The fact that her campaign had "That little girl was me" T-shirts ready to go right after the debate also didn't help - I think voters saw it as a calculated attack, and over time, it backfired.  Warren was also starting to gain momentum at this point, which was more a case of unfortunate timing there, but it also closed off potential avenues for Harris trying to appeal to more leftward voters.

I'll agree with you that Gabbard's attack on her didn't help, and did some damage, as Harris was already on the way back down in the polls.  I think Harris's more general problem was that she was trying for a similar approach to O'Malley in 2016 - thread some sort of center-left needle, and appeal to both sides of the Democratic Party fault line.  But just like 2016, all the oxygen in the room was taken up by the solid moderates and solid progressives, with little room for people in between.

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3 minutes ago, darkmoon72 said:

But I remember over the next several days, the attack unraveled, and it got brought up multiple times until finally Harris found herself agreeing with Biden and taking the exact same position he had

Yes, she didn't handle obvious follow up questions about it well.

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3 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Harris says she withdrew because she ran out of money.

Do we think it was just this? It seemed SO sudden, to the point she didn't even have a video ready-- but a Medium article, which seems so last minute. Even the video she eventually did release seemed incredibly unrehearsed. I just have a feeling that something major happened behind the scenes for her to withdraw so suddenly and cut such a large staff + field team with no real warning.

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1 minute ago, lizphairphreak said:

Do we think it was just this? It seemed SO sudden, to the point she didn't even have a video ready-- but a Medium article, which seems so last minute. Even the video she eventually did release seemed incredibly unrehearsed. I just have a feeling that something major happened behind the scenes for her to withdraw so suddenly and cut such a large staff + field team with no real warning.

Just before Harris dropped out, she cancelled a fundraiser at the last moment, citing a "personal matter".  Take that for what it's worth.  Her sister was the campaign chairwoman, maybe it had something to do with her.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-cancels-new-york-fundraiser-as-2020-campaign-in-turmoil.html

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2 minutes ago, lizphairphreak said:

Do we think it was just this?

I wonder this as well.

Some have noted that she only had a few days to remove her name from the California primary ballot, or she might face an embarrassment there. This doesn't seem plausible to me.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I wonder this as well.

Some have noted that she only had a few days to remove her name from the California primary ballot, or she might face an embarrassment there. This doesn't seem plausible to me.

I think this has a large amount to do with it, but I'd think that would mean her withdrawal would've actually been smoother because it's a set deadline.

Maybe we'll never know. Or maybe the campaign really was that disorganized that the withdrawal was too.

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