Reagan04 661 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/us/politics/kirsten-gillibrand-2020-drop-out.amp.html&ved=2ahUKEwjgv9SuxabkAhVwTd8KHQHfCVgQiJQBMAN6BAgDEAM&usg=AOvVaw2xj1wHO_YXYpNsM9VKW_uV&cf=1 As per the prediction of several users, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has dropped out of the race. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Who is still running that won't make this round of debates? Bullock de Blasio Delaney Gabbard Messam Ryan Sestak Steyer Williamson Bennet My guess is the more conventional candidates are more likely to drop out after this than the less conventional. I would consider Bullock, Bennet, Gabbard, Ryan the more conventional. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 I guess every time a candidate drops out, the remaining candidates have a greater opportunity to get attention, so there's a counter-acting consideration. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,260 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, admin_270 said: Who is still running that won't make this round of debates? Bullock de Blasio Delaney Gabbard Messam Ryan Sestak Steyer Williamson Bennet My guess is the more conventional candidates are more likely to drop out after this than the less conventional. I would consider Bullock, Bennet, Gabbard, Ryan the more conventional. Gabbard isn’t conventional. She’s kind of like Warren and Sanders but with a more isolationist foreign policy and less of a focus on civil rights. However that’s kind of a generalization on my part. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Herbert Hoover 199 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, admin_270 said: I guess every time a candidate drops out, the remaining candidates have a greater opportunity to get attention, so there's a counter-acting consideration. I'd say Gabbard stays in until October at least. Here's who I expect to remain by Iowa and their general polling position: 1. Biden 2. Warren 3. Sanders 4. Buttigieg 5. Booker 6. Yang 7. O'Rourke 8. Gabbard 9. Delaney I'd expect the rest to drop out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 1 minute ago, vcczar said: Gabbard isn’t conventional. You're right, she's eclectic enough to make me put an asterisk next to that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hestia11 604 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Herbert Hoover said: I'd say Gabbard stays in until October at least. Here's who I expect to remain by Iowa and their general polling position: 1. Biden 2. Warren 3. Sanders 4. Buttigieg 5. Booker 6. Yang 7. O'Rourke 8. Gabbard 9. Delaney I'd expect the rest to drop out. Harris will stay in. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Yang is now polling in 6th according to the latest RCP average, ahead of O'Rourke and Booker. He now has a recent poll (Emerson) where he polled ahead of Buttigieg, in 5th. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,260 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Hestia11 said: Harris will stay in. @Herbert Hoover yeah I think Harris will be in. Delaney, O’Rourke, and maybe Booker will be out. The latter two if they aren’t double digits in IA, NH, SC, or NV by mid January. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 If Bernie or Warren dropped out, the other probably would be the front-runner in short order. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Herbert Hoover 199 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Hestia11 said: Harris will stay in. I forgot Harris. Whoops! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilentLiberty 230 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, admin_270 said: If Bernie or Warren dropped out, the other probably would be the front-runner in short order. Which is both funny and true. It's funny because both campaigns are in it for the long haul which really just might spite their agenda(s) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony_270 1,107 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said: Which is both funny and true. It's funny because both campaigns are in it for the long haul which really just might spite their agenda(s) Ya, for supporters of either, the best outcome might be for them to form a Non-Aggression Pact until IA and NH are done, and then whoever has the weaker numbers withdraw and endorse the other candidate. This allows time for the vote to consolidate before Super Tuesday and momentum for the candidate who will then go up in the polls. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ThePotatoWalrus 471 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 I love Mommy Gabbard. If she doesn't make it in i'm rioting and resisting arrest Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 862 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I say Steyer stays in despite missing this debate. He’s the closest to qualifying in October’s debate, and by that point people will be interested to see him on the stage for the first time. Gabbard is sure to drop out. Her campaign is already in debt. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 514 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Actinguy said: Gabbard is sure to drop out. Her campaign is already in debt. Oh, shucks! Gabbard is actually one of my very least favourite "viable" candidates (other than Trump), along with Harris, Williamson, Buttigieg, and O'Rourke. So, no big loss, anyways, if she does. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,260 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 3 hours ago, admin_270 said: If Bernie or Warren dropped out, the other probably would be the front-runner in short order. I think this is true. One good sign for Warren is that she’s actually the 2nd choice of many Sanders, Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg voters. Sanders is only a 2nd choice for manual warren voters. For whatever reason, his 2nd largest group of the Bernie as a 2nd choice is from Biden supporters. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ThePotatoWalrus 471 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Shitposter in chief. This man knows how to control the media. Once in a lifetime President. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 514 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said: Shitposter in chief. This man knows how to control the media. Once in a lifetime President. Well, the Republicans already had their sad day when they abandoned every single ideal and high ground they may have ever held, signed their long-term death warrant as party, and nominated Donald Trump for U.S. President at their National Convention in 2016. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilentLiberty 230 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Patine said: Well, the Republicans already had their sad day when they abandoned every single ideal and high ground they may have ever held, signed their long-term death warrant as party, and nominated Donald Trump for U.S. President at their National Convention in 2016. You keep saying that, maybe one day it'll come true Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 514 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said: You keep saying that, maybe one day it'll come true I firmly believe it already has - the fruits of the GOP nomination's foolish and reckless abandon to party just haven't been made manifest yet. I think if the Libertarians do become the new main right-wing party, at least they won't be (at first) so flagrantly corrupt, criminal, authoritarian, hawkish-for-corporate-profit-abroad, cloaked-in-secrecy-and-spy-culture, hypocritical morally, and, yes, even outright treasonous to their own people and nation as the GOP have become to the core as a party. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,260 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 9 hours ago, Patine said: Well, the Republicans already had their sad day when they abandoned every single ideal and high ground they may have ever held, signed their long-term death warrant as party, and nominated Donald Trump for U.S. President at their National Convention in 2016. I’m remembering when Gore Vidal responded the moment Obama won election in 2008. He said emphatically, “The Republican Party, is of today, as terminated as the Whig Party in 1852.” 2010 GOP swept Congress, was competitive in 2012. In 2016, the managed to win the EC with arguably the least favored nominee in US history (facing the next least favorable). In 2018, they still held the Senate. I don’t think they’re close to dying. Both major parties have abandoned ideals and evolved or devolved in the course of their lifetimes. I keep wanting them to collapse but they have to allow that as a team. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 862 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 hours ago, vcczar said: I’m remembering when Gore Vidal responded the moment Obama won election in 2008. He said emphatically, “The Republican Party, is of today, as terminated as the Whig Party in 1852.” 2010 GOP swept Congress, was competitive in 2012. In 2016, the managed to win the EC with arguably the least favored nominee in US history (facing the next least favorable). In 2018, they still held the Senate. I don’t think they’re close to dying. Both major parties have abandoned ideals and evolved or devolved in the course of their lifetimes. I keep wanting them to collapse but they have to allow that as a team. They're dying in the sense that the Republican Party is not what it was pre-Obama. It was eaten from the inside by the tea party, brought about by Sarah Palin (and, therefore, by John McCain). Trump is the result of that. The new Republican Party may be stronger than the old party was, at least for now, in terms of voter support. That's frightening in itself to me, as somebody who actually used to like a lot about the GOP until Palin, Trump, and others hijacked it. But the election results are strong, suggesting this new GOP may be around for the forseeable future, even if it seemingly has no connection to what came before. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
pilight 240 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 We've heard this before. In 1994 the Republicans were crowing that they had a "permanent majority". They were in the minority in both houses of congress by 2006 and in the six presidential elections since '94 they've won the popular vote once. In 2008 Democrats were ridiculing the GOP as a "regional party". Today that term much more accurately describes the Dems. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,260 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, pilight said: We've heard this before. In 1994 the Republicans were crowing that they had a "permanent majority". They were in the minority in both houses of congress by 2006 and in the six presidential elections since '94 they've won the popular vote once. In 2008 Democrats were ridiculing the GOP as a "regional party". Today that term much more accurately describes the Dems. How can the Dems be the more regional party? They control the house and have won the PV in every election in the 21st century, except in 2004. The Dems are easily more National than regional considering they win just about every urban area in the country. Likewise GOP isn’t regional either because it wins just about every rural area across the country. The battle is in the suburbs. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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