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"Swing" States


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By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada

Arizona

Minnesota

Iowa

Wisconsin

Michigan

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Florida

North Carolina

Virginia

New Hampshire

Maine

Georgia

Colorado

 

Thoughts?

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7 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada - Blue.

Arizona - Red.

Minnesota - Blue.

Iowa - Red.

Wisconsin - Hard to say without knowing the candidates. If we can get a midwestern on the Democrat ticket (Brown, Klobuchar, etc) or possibly even Biden, then blue.  Otherwise, I say coin flip.

Michigan - Blue.  I still don't understand what the fuck happened here in 2016.

Ohio - Red.

Pennsylvania - Blue.

Florida - Red.

North Carolina - Red.  

Virginia - Blue.

New Hampshire - Blue.

Maine - Blue.

Georgia - Red.

Colorado - Blue.

 

Thoughts?

 

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7 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada  70/30 Blue

Arizona 60/40 Red

Minnesota 55/45 Blue

Iowa 70/30 Red

Wisconsin 55/45 Blue

Michigan 60/40 Blue

Ohio 65/35 Red

Pennsylvania 60/40 Blue

Florida 55/45 Red

North Carolina 55/45 Red

Virginia 80/20 Blue

New Hampshire 60/40 Blue

Maine 90/10 Blue

Georgia 70/30 Red

Colorado 65/35 Blue

 

Thoughts?

 

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7 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada- Likely D

Arizona- Lean R

Minnesota- Lean D

Iowa - tossup

Wisconsin - tossup

Michigan - toss up

Ohio- lean R

Pennsylvania - lean D

Florida - tossup

North Carolina- lean R

Virginia- likely D

New Hampshire- lean D

Maine- lean D

Georgia- lean R

Colorado- likely D

 

Thoughts?

 

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Nevada - Blue (Lean)

Arizona - Red (Lean)

Minnesota Blue (Likely)

Iowa - Red (Likely)

Wisconsin - Tossup 

Michigan - Blue (Lean)

Ohio - Red (Likely)

Pennsylvania - Blue (Likely)

Florida - Red/Tossup

North Carolina - Red (Likely)

Virginia - Blue (Safe)

New Hampshire - Blue (Likely)

Maine - Blue (Likely)

Georgia - Red (Likely)

Colorado - Blue (Likely)

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14 hours ago, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada - likely D

Arizona - likely R

Minnesota - likely D

Iowa - likely R

Wisconsin - lean R

Michigan - likely D

Ohio - lean R

Pennsylvania - lean D 

Florida - lean R

North Carolina - likely R

Virginia - likely D

New Hampshire - lean D

Maine - likely D

Georgia - likely R

Colorado - likely D

 

Thoughts?

 

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On 2/14/2019 at 2:28 PM, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada - likely D

Arizona - lean R

Minnesota - likely D

Iowa - likely R

Wisconsin - lean R

Michigan - likely D

Ohio - likely R

Pennsylvania - likely D

Florida - lean R

North Carolina - likely R

Virginia - likely D

New Hampshire - likely D

Maine - likely D

Georgia - lean R

Colorado - likely D

 

Thoughts?

It obviously depends on who the Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees are, but these predictions are if Kamala Harris is the nominee (because I give her the highest chance of winning the primary right now) and a VP nominee who doesn't help a ton in any particular swing state.

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On 2/14/2019 at 2:28 PM, HonestAbe said:

Nevada (Likely D)

Arizona (Likely R)

Minnesota (Likely D)

Iowa (Likely R)

Wisconsin (Tossup)

Michigan (Lean D)

Ohio (Safe R)

Pennsylvania (Tossup)

Florida (Tossup)

North Carolina (Tossup)

Virginia (Safe D)

New Hampshire (Lean D)

Maine (Lean D)

Georgia (Likely R)

Colorado (Safe D)

 

Nothing too crazy here.

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Nevada - DEM

Arizona - REP

Minnesota - DEM (gone Dem 11 straight elections, no reason to expect a change)

Iowa - REP

Wisconsin - DEM

Michigan - DEM

Ohio - This is the bellwether.  Ohio has gone to the election winner in each of the last 14 presidential elections .  - DEM

Pennsylvania - DEM

Florida - REP

North Carolina - REP

Virginia - DEM

New Hampshire - DEM

Maine - DEM

Georgia - REP

Colorado - DEM

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On 2/14/2019 at 1:28 PM, HonestAbe said:

By most measures the following are a list of states that are in play in a competitive election.  There are some other states that certainly we could see flip in '20 that went Blue/Red in '16 beyond this list, but almost certainly would only occur in a major victory for one side or the other, and likely wouldn't swing in a competitive election year. 

So out of this list, long before we even know the two candidates, which states are you calling Blue, which states are you calling Red in '20.

 

Nevada- Likely D

Arizona- Lean R

Minnesota- Likely D

Iowa- Lean R

Wisconsin- Tossup (Tilt D if I had to pick)

Michigan- Lean D

Ohio- Likely R

Pennsylvania- Tossup (Tilt D)

Florida- Tossup (Tilt R)

North Carolina- Likely R

Virginia- Solid D

New Hampshire- Lean D

Maine- Likely D

Georgia- Likely R

Colorado- Solid D

 

Thoughts?

 

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On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 2:28 PM, HonestAbe said:

Nevada - lean D

Arizona - lean R (tossup)

Minnesota - lean D

Iowa - lean R

Wisconsin - tilt D (tossup)

Michigan - tilt D (tossup)

Ohio - likely R

Pennsylvania - tilt D (tossup)

Florida - lean R (tossup)

North Carolina - lean R

Virginia - likely D

New Hampshire - tilt D (tossup)

Maine - lean D

Georgia - likely R

Colorado - likely D

 

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