2020 Scenario for download here

[Patine 513]

On ‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 12:33 PM, Sunnymentoaddict said:

The Democratic ticket was Beto/Amy Klobachar. A perfect ticket where Beto can focus on the sunbelt, and Klobachar focus on the midwest. Interesting tidbits: Ohio barely went for the Democratic Party, while Texas easily voted for the former Congressman. Georgia was decided by a couple thousand votes, and the once longtime swingstate- Missouri- went 61% Trump. The Democratic Party's strongest state was California with 74.3%. Trump's best state was Indiana with 69%(West Virginia was 61.8).

Realistically, they'd likely BOTH fail to carry their home States - an unprecedented, and very dubious, statistic in U.S. Presidential electoral history if it did end up happening.

[Guest]

18 hours ago, Patine said:

Realistically, they'd likely BOTH fail to carry their home States - an unprecedented, and very dubious, statistic in U.S. Presidential electoral history if it did end up happening.

I doubt Klobuchar will lose her home state.

[Patine 513]

7 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

I doubt Klobuchar will lose her home state.

Sorry, I meant both O'Rourke and Trump. I don't believe it's ever occurred that both leading candidates for PRESIDENT ever had that dubious honour. Sorry for the lack of clarification.

[Harris/Ernst 2020 0]

I played through it twice. Once in the primaries as Bernie, which I lost to Biden and continued as Biden. This was the end result:

Honestly I thought Trump was too strong. He never maintained less than an 8 point lead on momentum on me. Could be when I skipped a couple of weeks after I lost as Bernie to the convention. 

My Second play though was in the general only and as Beto. I had the upperhand on momentum but never took a lead in votes. Which is somewhat realistic seeing as it's hard to beat an incumbent President. 

Overall I think it's good, just think Trump might be a little too strong. Also couldn't choose Harris as a VP option for Beto

 

[Sunnymentoaddict 39]

6 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I played through it twice. Once in the primaries as Bernie, which I lost to Biden and continued as Biden. This was the end result:

Honestly I thought Trump was too strong. He never maintained less than an 8 point lead on momentum on me. Could be when I skipped a couple of weeks after I lost as Bernie to the convention. 

My Second play though was in the general only and as Beto. I had the upperhand on momentum but never took a lead in votes. Which is somewhat realistic seeing as it's hard to beat an incumbent President. 

Overall I think it's good, just think Trump might be a little too strong. Also couldn't choose Harris as a VP option for Beto

 

I can only imagine the anger in the nation if Trump wins the presidency despite someone else receiving well over 50% of the vote. 

[Harris/Ernst 2020 0]

I can see both scenarios happening. More so the bottom one with Montana and Colorado flipped.

[AmericanChaos 0]

On 11/23/2018 at 4:54 PM, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I could actually see the second scenario happening, but with a smaller Democrat winning %.

Me too, honestly. 

 

[AmericanChaos 0]

I was bored and ran it through the primaries and general, with several moderate Republicans running against Trump. Trump still won. The Democrats primary was much more exciting. For most of the race I thought O'Rorke would win. Then towards the end I thought Booker would, after he took the lead. Then Harris took the lead and was endorsed by Booker. This gave her more delegates than O'Rourke. Harris led Trump most of the general, and had turned Utah, Georgia, and Louisiana blue and they remained blue until election day. 

These were the results. I was really confused af. The only race that was undecided going into election day was PA. I figured Trump would lose by a close margin. 
Also yay me for somehow garnering 50,000 votes. 

[TheMiddlePolitical 99]

12 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I played through it twice. Once in the primaries as Bernie, which I lost to Biden and continued as Biden. This was the end result:

Honestly I thought Trump was too strong. He never maintained less than an 8 point lead on momentum on me. Could be when I skipped a couple of weeks after I lost as Bernie to the convention. 

My Second play though was in the general only and as Beto. I had the upperhand on momentum but never took a lead in votes. Which is somewhat realistic seeing as it's hard to beat an incumbent President. 

Overall I think it's good, just think Trump might be a little too strong. Also couldn't choose Harris as a VP option for Beto

 

Too strong,seriously? I think Trumps current rate is either exactly right,or weak. Look at @Sunnymentoaddict results +8 for O’Rourke point...I think Trumps range right now for 2020 PV wise..his high is +3 and low is -5...not -8. Your’s is a great realistic result..I think @vcczar did a great job,and really don’t think Trump needs to be nerfed at ALL.

[Harris/Ernst 2020 0]

8 hours ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

Too strong,seriously? I think Trumps current rate is either exactly right,or weak. Look at @Sunnymentoaddict results +8 for O’Rourke point...I think Trumps range right now for 2020 PV wise..his high is +3 and low is -5...not -8. Your’s is a great realistic result..I think @vcczar did a great job,and really don’t think Trump needs to be nerfed at ALL.

I'm mainly referencing to his strength in certain states, like Florida, and Ohio, though I do believe he should be ahead just not by as much as he is right now, especially with Florida now restoring voting rights to felons.

[Harris/Ernst 2020 0]

This is where I would put the current strength of each state right at this moment.

[Sunnymentoaddict 39]

2 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I'm mainly referencing to his strength in certain states, like Florida, and Ohio, though I do believe he should be ahead just not by as much as he is right now, especially with Florida now restoring voting rights to felons.

I feel Ohio is lean Republican at this point. It has a large white working class population, and Brown did worse than his fellow Midwestern  Senate Democrats in the midterms. 

 

Florida is weird since there's an ever growing large population of retirees; but also young minorites, and so on. I feel the favorability mechanic will fix this issue. 

[Harris/Ernst 2020 0]

I agree he is ahead in Ohio, but I wouldn't put him roughly 10 points ahead, maybe like 4-5, I also would make Texas a little bit stronger for the GOP.

[AmericanChaos 0]

11 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

This is where I would put the current strength of each state right at this moment.

Okay but imagine the chaos in 2020 if the map falls this way, and the three toss-ups here go to Trump and the results are 269-269. The House would end up voting for Trump due to more states having a majority of Republicans in its delegation, even though more Reps are democrats because of huge populous states like California and New York. The senate would undoubtedly vote for Pence, causing a huge uproar. Or imagine the House voting for the Democrat in this case because of Trump's growing unpopularity and Pence being voted in by the Senate. Dem Pres, Repub VP. This could get messy lol.

 

[vcczar 1,227]

41 minutes ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

I agree he is ahead in Ohio, but I wouldn't put him roughly 10 points ahead, maybe like 4-5, I also would make Texas a little bit stronger for the GOP.

A lot of my % were made to help facilitate accurate results. I find Trump consistently losing OH and FL. I see Democrats strangely losing WA often. I justify a GOP lean in Florida for two reasons--Republicans have the Gov, both Senators, majority of US Reps, and I believe the legislature, and as we've seen, the GOP seems to enjoy restricting voting. I don't think FL has enough felons to help Democrats, considering a Democrat can energize felons to go to the polls. I think Trump has also changed his state of residence to Florida, as seen by his frequent trips to FL as opposed to NY. I think he could get a slight bonus for that. I'm fairly certain PA, MI, WI will go back to Dems in 2020, but I doubt OH or FL does.  

[TheMiddlePolitical 99]

14 hours ago, Harris/Ernst 2020 said:

This is where I would put the current strength of each state right at this moment.

I'd make MI and PA Tossups...on the simple fact he won them but otherwise solid map (I think NC should be a shade darker,and Oh,IA)

[Patine 513]

31 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I'd make MI and PA Tossups...on the simple fact he won them but otherwise solid map (I think NC should be a shade darker,and Oh,IA)

The reasons he won those two States (and a couple of others) in 2016 probably won't be present in 2020, or will at least be highly mitigated. It wasn't just because he was Donald Trump that he won there, but also to a significant degree who is opponent was in 2016, and certain situations politically and economically that may not necessarily repeat themselves in 2020, or at least not in the same way.

[Hestia11 594]

Something's broken with the Green Party, I believe. All undecided voters pretty much go either their way or to Democrats in the closing days. They won Missouri, and picked up 16% in Georgia as well as 8% in Florida and 10% in Ohio. Same goes with Libertarians getting 25% in New Mexico. 

[vcczar 1,227]

8 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

Something's broken with the Green Party, I believe. All undecided voters pretty much go either their way or to Democrats in the closing days. They won Missouri, and picked up 16% in Georgia as well as 8% in Florida and 10% in Ohio. Same goes with Libertarians getting 25% in New Mexico. 

Maybe @admin_270 has a solution. He can use the same file I posted for my question about saved games not loading. 

[Caprice 0]

13 hours ago, vcczar said:

Maybe @admin_270 has a solution. He can use the same file I posted for my question about saved games not loading. 

I think favorability is the solution to this.

[Guest]

On 11/28/2018 at 10:31 AM, Hestia11 said:

Something's broken with the Green Party, I believe. All undecided voters pretty much go either their way or to Democrats in the closing days. They won Missouri, and picked up 16% in Georgia as well as 8% in Florida and 10% in Ohio. Same goes with Libertarians getting 25% in New Mexico. 

The thing that usually caused that from my testing was a massive negative momentum hit to the other parties and positive momentum for the Greens. Third party AI will target swing states because the percentages are technically closer to them - 50-49-1 in Ohio for example is 48 points down while 65-34-1 in Vermont is 64 down and will be ignored despite the fact the Greens are much closer to Vermont with their positions than Ohio.  

[Guest]

Just downloaded and spectated for the first time using the default matchups from my scenario. Kokesh and the Greens are far too strong with 3 command and strategic. The Republicans and Democrats also need more funds, they both went bankrupt a few weeks in.

[vcczar 1,227]

7 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

Just downloaded and spectated for the first time using the default matchups from my scenario. Kokesh and the Greens are far too strong with 3 command and strategic. The Republicans and Democrats also need more funds, they both went bankrupt a few weeks in.

Thanks for the feedback!

[Guest]

Just now, vcczar said:

Thanks for the feedback!

No problem. Now give me some!

[vcczar 1,227]

13 minutes ago, SirLagsalott said:

No problem. Now give me some!

I will win I have time. Really busy for the best 4 weeks, which is why I haven’t been posting often. How much more money did you give Dems and Reps? I’m using the 2016 numbers.