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My 2020 Scenario


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I've been chipping away at a 2020 scenario for the past few months. I'll outline what I've got so far:

Candidates

Republican

Pres. Donald Trump (on)

Gov. Larry Hogan (on)

Mr. Don Blankenship (on - added 11/14/2018)

Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake (on - added 11/16/2018)

Sen. Mitt Romney (off)

Sen. Rand Paul (off)

Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (off)

Gov. Charlie Baker (off)

Amb. John Huntsman (off)

Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (off)

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(Trump usually dispatches Hogan fairly easily due to superior campaign strength. I gave Hogan a boost in open-primary states, but he's far behind in Republican-only contests. Several endorsers are already close to backing him such as Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker, and Phil Scott.)

Democratic

(note: it was really hard to keep updating the number of candidates as new ones emerged while still being able to play the primaries without waiting half a minute for each day)

Sen. Bernie Sanders (on)

Sen. Joe Biden (on)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (on)

Sen. Kamala Harris (on)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (on)

Sen. Cory Booker (on)

Sen. Tim Kaine (on)

Rep. Eric Swalwell (on)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (on)

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (on)

Gov. Steve Bullock (on)

Fmr. Myr. Michael Bloomberg (on)

Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (on)

Mr. Michael Avenatti (on)

Mr. Tom Steyer (on)

State Sen. Richard Ojeda (on - added 11/14/2018)

Sen. Chris Murphy (off)

Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro (off)

Gov. John Bel Edwards (off)

Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (off)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (off)

Mrs. Oprah Winfrey (off - added 11/14/2018)

Fmr. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (off - added 11/19/2018)

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(I made all the percentages in early September and I've been updating them only for new candidates - I need to do a total rework of what I have.)

Libertarian

Mr. Adam Kokesh (on)

Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld (on)

Mr. Austin Petersen (off)

Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (off)

Green

Mr. Ajamu Baraka (on)

Ms. Rosario Dawson (off)

Dr. Jill Stein (off)

Better For America

Mr. Evan McMullin (off)

Mr. Mark Cuban (off)

Mr. Mark Zuckerberg (off)

 

I've added all the newly elected Senators and Governors as endorsers, and boosted surrogates significantly. National momentum effects from most endorsers have been removed and I instead made their surrogates more critical. Newspapers can be used for favorable spin and editorials, party chairs will fundraise for their nominee, and high-profile but failed candidates such as Beto O'Rourke and Andrew Gillum can provide some help in their respective states. I'll update primary dates when they're finally decided, because many states have yet to declare their dates. I already moved up California to Super Tuesday.

EDIT: ignore the below image - for some reason i'm not allowed to remove it

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4 hours ago, SirLagsalott said:

 

(I made all the percentages in early September and I've been updating them only for new candidates

The percentages of some to me are a little weird. I doubt Sen. Brown would be ahead of Warren or Sanders in popularity. Is this after a few months of campaigning?

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14 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

The percentages of some to me are a little weird. I doubt Sen. Brown would be ahead of Warren or Sanders in popularity. Is this after a few months of campaigning?

Warren and Sanders cut into each others' support a lot. But fair, I'm definitely going to be changing percentages at some point.

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On 11/13/2018 at 10:25 AM, SirLagsalott said:

image.thumb.png.4ee0c5009079667266ebb28b63e5cd35.png

I've been chipping away at a 2020 scenario for the past few months. I'll outline what I've got so far:

Candidates

Republican

Pres. Donald Trump (on)

Gov. Larry Hogan (on)

Sen. Mitt Romney (off)

Sen. Rand Paul (off)

Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (off)

Gov. Charlie Baker (off)

Amb. John Huntsman (off)

Fmr. Amb. Nikki Haley (off)

image.png.0ffb7a571ed156c3a69995848f042439.png

(Trump usually dispatches Hogan fairly easily due to superior campaign strength. I gave Hogan a boost in open-primary states, but he's far behind in Republican-only contests. Several endorsers are already close to backing him such as Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker, and Phil Scott.)

Democratic

(note: it was really hard to keep updating the number of candidates as new ones emerged while still being able to play the primaries without waiting half a minute for each day)

Sen. Bernie Sanders (on)

Sen. Joe Biden (on)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (on)

Sen. Kamala Harris (on)

Sen. Sherrod Brown (on)

Sen. Cory Booker (on)

Sen. Tim Kaine (on)

Rep. Eric Swalwell (on)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (on)

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (on)

Gov. Steve Bullock (on)

Fmr. Myr. Michael Bloomberg (on)

Fmr. Rep. John Delaney (on)

Mr. Michael Avenatti (on)

Mr. Tom Steyer (on)

Sen. Chris Murphy (off)

Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro (off)

Gov. John Bel Edwards (off)

Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (off)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (off)

image.png.cff6a43071f20b1bc29ed370ac00b575.png

(I made all the percentages in early September and I've been updating them only for new candidates - I need to do a total rework of what I have.)

Libertarian

Mr. Adam Kokesh (on)

Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld (on)

Mr. Austin Petersen (off)

Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (off)

Green

Ms. Rosario Dawson (on)

Dr. Jill Stein (off)

Better For America

Mr. Evan McMullin (off)

Mr. Mark Cuban (off)

Mr. Mark Zuckerberg (off)

 

I've added all the newly elected Senators and Governors as endorsers, and boosted surrogates significantly. National momentum effects from most endorsers have been removed and I instead made their surrogates more critical. Newspapers can be used for favorable spin and editorials, party chairs will fundraise for their nominee, and high-profile but failed candidates such as Beto O'Rourke and Andrew Gillum can provide some help in their states. I'll update primary dates when they're finally decided, because many states have yet to declare their dates. I already moved up California to Super Tuesday.

Looks good. How did you decide that Rosario Dawson is a candidate and that Hogan is the default challenger of Trump?

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

Looks good. How did you decide that Rosario Dawson is a candidate and that Hogan is the default challenger of Trump? 

I put Rosario Dawson in as a stronger candidate for the Green Party because she was a notable Stein endorsement in 2016. Hogan is in because I feel he's more likely to run and win more support than others such as Baker and Romney. Romney would be running for the third time, have potential allegations of carpetbagging from Massachusetts to Utah, and won't win over as many independents due to the fact he moved rightward during 2012. Hogan always refused to rule out running and I might be personally biased a bit because I live close enough to Maryland that I get his ads.

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1 minute ago, SirLagsalott said:

I put Rosario Dawson in as a stronger candidate for the Green Party because she was a notable Stein endorsement in 2016. Hogan is in because I feel he's more likely to run and win more support than others such as Baker and Romney. Romney would be running for the third time, have potential allegations of carpetbagging from Massachusetts to Utah, and won't win over as many independents due to the fact he moved rightward during 2012. Hogan always refused to rule out running and I might be personally biased a bit because I live close enough to Maryland that I get his ads.

I have Kasich and Flake as most likely to run in my 2020 scenario, since they have said they are considering running. They've also been more nationally vocal against Trump than Hogan. 

Interesting about Dawson as a candidate. I doubt she'll run. Seems like Stein has sort of taken over the party as a Jill Stein Party rather than a party that is allowed to have other candidates for president. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I have Kasich and Flake as most likely to run in my 2020 scenario, since they have said they are considering running. They've also been more nationally vocal against Trump than Hogan. 

Interesting about Dawson as a candidate. I doubt she'll run. Seems like Stein has sort of taken over the party as a Jill Stein Party rather than a party that is allowed to have other candidates for president. 

Flake is going to get annihilated if he runs but I've been planning to add him at some point. Dawson might not run but I like to include stronger potential candidates for parties that would perform better than the generic nominees. Stein should hopefully lose the convention if she runs again - she has some pretty heavy allegations of collusion against Russia, including a lot of public proof of it such as attending RT events with Michael Flynn and others. I think her time has come with presidential runs. It's probably more likely that Ajamu Baraka will emerge as the Green nominee, though I haven't been following their politics a whole lot.

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Having some weird forum issue where I literally can't remove this outdated picture of the Republican primaries that I recently replaced with a new one. It's enormous and glued to the bottom of the post and I can't remove it.

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