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2048 Hypothetical Future Scenarios Revisited


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Just now, Jinsu Kim said:

Where will China and Korea go?

China is on the ascendance due to the break-up, politically, of the U.S. and EU into separate and sovereign successor states (as is mentioned earlier in this post), but Chinese President (and Communist Party Chairman and General Secretary) Li Gueyjong decided not to overextend China's precarious military position on some over-ambitious and highly risky military ploy to take advantage, but has instead held the global economic stability by using the Yuan Rimibi (which is, due to typical Chinese draconian economic stability laws, the most stable currency in the world at this time) to replace the U.S. Dollar (which is now effectively being printed, and valued and banked, between five independent nations) as the world basket and pegging tradable currency, and has maintained amicable trade deals with the U.S. and EU successor states. He calls this his "Golden Dragon over Storm Dragon policy." His (and his nation's) expansionistic ambitions have thus far been contained to annexing Taiwan and Mongolia, both of whom were heavily economically hit, and were offered stability and autonomy, and, in the case of Taiwan, the oblique phrase, "all since 1949 will be forgiven and forgotten." As for Korea, Kim Jong-un died in his '40's due to dietary complications, and his sister, Kim Yo-Jang, took over, but lacked the autocracy of her brother, father, and grandfather, and a council of generals and high party secretaries and ministers offer "advise that would be highly unwise to ignore," on many issues. Three unification conventions between North and South have been, but all three have broken down over numerous issues. While no military conflict has occurred, and a solid peace treaty has been hammered out, the two nations remain divided and aloof, and the neutral zone still stands, but tensions have stood down somewhat.

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You may have a very good point there. Especially with the greater urbanization of much of the State's population. I'll like have to make a re-evaluation (but these ideas in total are not a "finished p

What will be done about the other Communist countries: Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba? What about Russia? What parties will there be in Russia? Who will be the power there? United Russia? Communist Party? Ultra-nationalist LDPR? Democratic forces like Yabloko? What about Igor Strelkov's party?  (A poll seems to have found Igor Strelkov beating Putin 64-36). What is the future of Ukraine and Russia? What parties will be in Israel and how many? What will be done about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? What about satire candidates like Deez Nuts, Vermin Supreme, Jimmy McMillan, Official Monster Raving Loony Party? Will distrust of politicians cause them to receive support? Will there be war or peace? How about terrorism? Abortion? Will UBI be more high profile? What will the role of religion be? Will the world be more internationalist? What will be the future of the UN? Will Alaska and Hawaii become independent? What system of elections will there be?

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12 minutes ago, Jinsu Kim said:

What will be done about the other Communist countries: Laos, Vietnam, and Cuba? What about Russia? What parties will there be in Russia? Who will be the power there? United Russia? Communist Party? Ultra-nationalist LDPR? Democratic forces like Yabloko? What about Igor Strelkov's party?  (A poll seems to have found Igor Strelkov beating Putin 64-36). What is the future of Ukraine and Russia? What parties will be in Israel and how many? What will be done about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? What about satire candidates like Deez Nuts, Vermin Supreme, Jimmy McMillan, Official Monster Raving Loony Party? Will distrust of politicians cause them to receive support? Will there be war or peace? How about terrorism? Abortion? Will UBI be more high profile? What will the role of religion be? Will the world be more internationalist? What will be the future of the UN? Will Alaska and Hawaii become independent? What system of elections will there be?

First, Laos and Vietnam (and most of Southeast Asia except Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore) still need decisions made about them. Cuba (and the rest of the Caribbean nations, as well as U.S., UK, French, and Dutch dependencies there) have formed a federally-based Caribbean Federation as a political union, and the Communist Party of Cuba has merged with other far-left parties and labour and revolutionary movements in other Caribbean nations and polities to form hard socialist party within. The Communist Party, under it's new leader, Yuri Marcenko, won control of government based on economic collapse and playing the mythologized and nostalgic "command economy prosperity and one of two superpowers," view of the Cold War to the hilt. An Afghan warlord named Nahir Khan has rejuvenated the Caliphate ideal and brought a lot of (though not all) of the Islamic world under his sway, especially with the collapse of petroleum market and economy in 2030's. Israel is part of a loose alliance (not a political or trade union, but a military alliance, more akin to NATO in nature) called the Mediterranean Alliance with nations like Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Tunisia, Turkey, and even Iran, allied against the far-right regime in France (see earlier in the thread), a new increased sphere of influence under Marcenko's regime through various methods called the European Socialist States Union (ESSU), and this new Caliphate. Israel's politics have diverged sharply to Revisionist Zionist parties in an "under siege" mentality - especially no longer relying on U.S. military or political support. Alaska is part of the Western North American Federation successor state to the U.S. (with a big chunk of Canada), though a geographical extremity, and the Alaska Independence Party has increased it's support profile. Hawaii, too, is being considered and uncertain. The UN is de facto defunct, but exists on paper, but practically unfunded and powerless, though some of it's well-known and popular organs have become independent operating NGO's in their own and acquired their own sources of funding and negotiating access and operation rights in various countries. There is no global war, though regional wars are more common due to lack of a UN and major power interventions. "Islamist" terrorism, as a tactic, has actually been reduced, actually, as this new Caliphate has military power to fight conventionally, and a nuclear arsenal of it's own inherited from Pakistan, though new groups have sprung up all over who could be labelled terrorists, but whose goals and agendas are definitely not "Islamist," and in fact many are new, and some quite strange. Abortion would vary by nation, like today. UBI might exist in a few nations, but many others would have parties and groups who promoted it more seriously. Religion, also, would vary by nation. More cosmopolitan and networked, culturally, but, ironically, more balkanized, politically, would be more a more accurate term than more "internationalist."

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5 hours ago, Wiw said:

What happened to the UN? What of NATO, for that matter? Is there another Cold War going on?

The UN exists on paper, but has no funding, and no power. At best, it is a neutral forum to sit and talk in a non-binding manner between nations. Some of the most popular organs of the UN (like UNICEF, the WHO, and others) have effectively become independent NGO's who have acquired their own sources of funding, and their own negotiated agreements with various nations to operate in their borders. NATO could not survive the political splintering of the U.S. and EU intact, remotely, and lost any true purpose or incentive to carry on existing. A "Cold War" situation would be inaccurate complete - more like a "Belle Epogue/High Imperialism" type era with advanced technology, Cold War aversion to major power conflict (even above the Belle Epogue era's such aversion), and allies and proxy states instead of colonies and protectorates.

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10 hours ago, Patine said:

The UN exists on paper, but has no funding, and no power. At best, it is a neutral forum to sit and talk in a non-binding manner between nations. Some of the most popular organs of the UN (like UNICEF, the WHO, and others) have effectively become independent NGO's who have acquired their own sources of funding, and their own negotiated agreements with various nations to operate in their borders. NATO could not survive the political splintering of the U.S. and EU intact, remotely, and lost any true purpose or incentive to carry on existing. A "Cold War" situation would be inaccurate complete - more like a "Belle Epogue/High Imperialism" type era with advanced technology, Cold War aversion to major power conflict (even above the Belle Epogue era's such aversion), and allies and proxy states instead of colonies and protectorates.

I've heard that the UN is one of the most dysfunctional organizations (don't know if that's true though)...

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So, my fictitious and hypothetical 2048 future scenario set that is planned - the timeline leading up to will be presented in on this thread in due time - focuses on electoral scenarios for the following nations and other polities, on or closely around, the 2048 year of the setting's premise.

-United States of America - "Rump" successor nation after political fracturing which includes the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Rust Belt States, as well as Maryland, Delaware, Iowa, and the District of Columbia, plus the Canadian Provinces of Ontario and the four Maritime Provinces, and governance over U.S. Colonies, Mining Settlements, Bases, and Stations on Antarctica, the Moon, and Mars established prior to break-up.

-Christian States of America - American successor nation made up of the original Confederate States of the 1860's (including Oklahoma), as well as Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, and Kansas.

-Western North American Federation - American/Canadian successor nation made up of the Pacific Northwest, and Great Plains States (except Kansas, but fully including Minnesota), as well as Alaska, and the four Western Canadian Provinces and Yukon and Northwest Territories.

-Republic of California - Independent republic made up of the States of California and Nevada.

-Utah - Independent and singular nation under semi-theocratic Mormon governance.

-Republic of Quebec - An independent nation with the current borders - except Nunavik - but having been sold St. Pierre-et-Miquelon by France.

-Inuit Nunangat - Independent nation of vast majority Inuit population including the current Territory of Nunavut, the nation in the Danish Realm of Greenland, Nunavik and Nunatsiavut in the northern parts of what is now Quebec and Labrador, and  Inuvialuit Nunangit Sannaiqtuaq in what is now the north coast of Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and with claims on, desires to acquire, the Alaska Native Corporations assigned to Inuit and Yupik groups, and the Yupik settlements on the east coasts of the Russian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

-Caribbean Confederation - A federally arranged nation consisting of all sovereign Caribbean island nations, as well as current British, French, Dutch, and American island dependencies in the Caribbean Sea, plus Belize and the Guianas.

-United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland

-Republic of Scotland

-Portuguese Republic

-Kingdom of Spain

-Basque Free State

-Swiss Confederation

-Federal Republic of Germany

-Kingdom of Denmark

-Kingdom of Norway

-Kingdom of Sweden

-Sami Free Sovereignty

-Republic of Iceland

-Republic of Italy

-Republic of Malta

-Hellenic Republic

-Republic of Cyprus

-Republic of Turkey

-State of Israel

-Republic of Tunisia

-Islamic Republic of Iran

-Republic of India

-Federation of Australasia

-Kingdom of Thailand

-Kingdom of Cambodia

-Korean Transitional Unity Government

-Japan

-Kingdom of Hawaii

-Federation of Greater Melanesia

-Republic of Fiji

-Lunar Assembly

-Martian Congress

The layout of South American and African nations is still being fine-tuned, and, as electoral scenarios go, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland, and Hungary are special cases.

More updates to come!

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I feel like Nevada would have some issues being in the “Republic of California”. If they joined voluntarily, maybe it should be called “The Pacific States of America”?

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2 hours ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

So what happened in Hawaii and Japan in your timeline? :D

Hawaii, after the political fracturing of the United States into successor nations at the very end of the 2030's, very start of the 2040's (timeline is coming soon) returned to the pre-Dole coup Hawaiian Constitutional Monarchy as a more symbolic aspect of national unity, like Juan Carlos becoming King of Spain after Francisco Franco's death in 1975, though several parties would like to establish a Republic (these parties are just sharply at odds on other issues). And, unlike the arbitrary, elitist, and royal-accountability-only role it had the pre-Dole coup Hawaiian Kingdom, the Kuhina Nui functions like a standard Westminster or other Constitutional Parliamentary Responsible Government Prime Minister. American Samoa has willingly "politically associated," with Hawaii.

Japan, feeling insecure about less seeming guarantee of military support against hostile nations in the Pacific Rim by old Cold War-originated military alliances with the U.S., has pushed even further at the re-armament campaigns Abe is currently mulling, and is determined to be a top class world naval power - which Japan has not been since the Second World War. The Japanese economy is also heavily pushing innovation as a huge focus to advance forward. And, the Emperor of Japan, Tajahito, who was not in the direct, expected line of succession, but inherited due to an unexpected Imperial Family accidental tragedy, and thus was not prepared for the role by upbringing, is engaging in a massive philanthropic campaign separate the Japanese Government - given his mandatory apolitical role.

2 hours ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

And Korea as well :D

The North Korean economy completely collapses, and even it's iron-fisted leadership is unable to manage or control the situation. Serious and urgent unification talks are made between Seoul and Pyongyang, arbitrated and brokered by both China and Japan, and a "Transitional Unity Government," is prepared with peninsular-scale elections of unprecedented nature - and a lot of pitfalls...

1 hour ago, Zenobiyl said:

I feel like Nevada would have some issues being in the “Republic of California”. If they joined voluntarily, maybe it should be called “The Pacific States of America”?

The nation in question is not a Federal one, like the "Rump," U.S., or the Christian States of America, or the Western North American Federation, but Unitary, with the first-tier administrative sub-divisions being the Counties within California and Nevada. Though, maybe some naming convention could be thought to give recognition, however.

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7 hours ago, Patine said:

@WVProgressive @Dr. Insano @Sunnymentoaddict @vcczar @jvikings1 @Actinguy @SilentLiberty @Rodja @Conservative Elector 2   @Ido @Wiw @jnewt  @jdm06ltd @Natalie, @admin_270  @Hestia11 @TheLiberalKitten @LegolasRedbard @victorraiders @lizarraba @Harris/Ernst 2020 @wolves @RI Democrat @TheMiddlePolitical @darkmoon72 @Herbert Hoover @CentristGuy @Ishan @TheNeck @Zenobiyl @Palpatine @Berg2036 @King of the North

So, my fictitious and hypothetical 2048 future scenario set that is planned - the timeline leading up to will be presented in on this thread in due time - focuses on electoral scenarios for the following nations and other polities, on or closely around, the 2048 year of the setting's premise.

-United States of America - "Rump" successor nation after political fracturing which includes the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Rust Belt States, as well as Maryland, Delaware, Iowa, and the District of Columbia, plus the Canadian Provinces of Ontario and the four Maritime Provinces, and governance over U.S. Colonies, Mining Settlements, Bases, and Stations on Antarctica, the Moon, and Mars established prior to break-up.

-Christian States of America - American successor nation made up of the original Confederate States of the 1860's (including Oklahoma), as well as Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, and Kansas.

-Western North American Federation - American/Canadian successor nation made up of the Pacific Northwest, and Great Plains States (except Kansas, but fully including Minnesota), as well as Alaska, and the four Western Canadian Provinces and Yukon and Northwest Territories.

-Republic of California - Independent republic made up of the States of California and Nevada.

-Utah - Independent and singular nation under semi-theocratic Mormon governance.

-Republic of Quebec - An independent nation with the current borders - except Nunavik - but having been sold St. Pierre-et-Miquelon by France.

-Inuit Nunangat - Independent nation of vast majority Inuit population including the current Territory of Nunavut, the nation in the Danish Realm of Greenland, Nunavik and Nunatsiavut in the northern parts of what is now Quebec and Labrador, and  Inuvialuit Nunangit Sannaiqtuaq in what is now the north coast of Yukon and the Northwest Territories, and with claims on, desires to acquire, the Alaska Native Corporations assigned to Inuit and Yupik groups, and the Yupik settlements on the east coasts of the Russian Chukotka Autonomous Okrug.

-Caribbean Confederation - A federally arranged nation consisting of all sovereign Caribbean island nations, as well as current British, French, Dutch, and American island dependencies in the Caribbean Sea, plus Belize and the Guianas.

-United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland

-Republic of Scotland

-Portuguese Republic

-Kingdom of Spain

-Basque Free State

-Swiss Confederation

-Federal Republic of Germany

-Kingdom of Denmark

-Kingdom of Norway

-Kingdom of Sweden

-Sami Free Sovereignty

-Republic of Iceland

-Republic of Italy

-Republic of Malta

-Hellenic Republic

-Republic of Cyprus

-Republic of Turkey

-State of Israel

-Republic of Tunisia

-Islamic Republic of Iran

-Republic of India

-Federation of Australasia

-Kingdom of Thailand

-Kingdom of Cambodia

-Korean Transitional Unity Government

-Japan

-Kingdom of Hawaii

-Federation of Greater Melanesia

-Republic of Fiji

-Lunar Assembly

-Martian Congress

The layout of South American and African nations is still being fine-tuned, and, as electoral scenarios go, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland, and Hungary are special cases.

More updates to come!

@WVProgressive @Dr. Insano @Sunnymentoaddict @vcczar @jvikings1 @Actinguy @SilentLiberty @Rodja @Conservative Elector 2   @Ido @Wiw @jnewt  @jdm06ltd @Natalie, @admin_270  @Hestia11 @TheLiberalKitten @LegolasRedbard @victorraiders @lizarraba @Harris/Ernst 2020 @wolves @RI Democrat @TheMiddlePolitical @darkmoon72 @Herbert Hoover @CentristGuy @Ishan @TheNeck @Zenobiyl @Palpatine @Berg2036 @King of the North

Forgot to mention (outside of the in-development South American and Sub-Saharan African elections scenarios, the special electoral cases of Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, and Hungary, and the limited but extant plans for the Antarctic Settlements, the following nine:

-Binational Republic of Sri Lanka and Tamil Eelam

-People's Secular Republic of Bangladesh

-Republic of Nepal

-Kingdom of Bhutan

-Mongolia

-Federation of Greater MICRONESIA (should replace Federation of Greater MELANESIA)

-Free Russian State (capital in Krasnoyarsk, and only existing in parts of Siberia)

-Chinese Special Administrative Zones of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan

-Central Tibetan Administration (Government-in-Exile) Diaspora-Elected Assembly located in Dharamshala, India

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@WVProgressive @Dr. Insano @Sunnymentoaddict @vcczar @jvikings1 @Actinguy @SilentLiberty @Rodja @Conservative Elector 2   @Ido @Wiw @jnewt  @jdm06ltd @Natalie, @admin_270  @Hestia11 @TheLiberalKitten @LegolasRedbard @victorraiders @lizarraba @Harris/Ernst 2020 @wolves @RI Democrat @TheMiddlePolitical @darkmoon72 @Herbert Hoover @CentristGuy @Ishan @TheNeck @Zenobiyl @Palpatine @Berg2036 @King of the North @ThePotatoWalrus @MysteryKnight @Edouard @MBDemSoc

So, some further ideas for this whole setting in a general sense.

-Virtuacom, a massive technology conglomerate that rose to massive proportions and bought-out, took-over, or irrelevated most of the former U.S.-centred tech giants (and currently owns all land in the area today called Silicon Valley, which it uses as it's corporate headquarters, testing and development labs, and private training institute base area) during the economic tumult after the Petroleum Market Crash in the 2030's and a massive Chinese-centred giant tech giant (far bigger and more expansive than the modern Huawei and affiliated outfits) are, by far and large, the predominant giants in communications and software fields, though cottage-industry, hacker, and pirate software and platforms are overtaking their prominence as seen even in the current day.

-As said above, the UN and EU are effectively and de facto irrelevant and powerless by this point, but still formally exist on paper.

-The break-up of the U.S. into seven sovereign nations had the acrimonious and controversial element that the (Rump) United States kept the nuclear launch codes (similar to how Russia did when the USSR broke up), the Federal Reserve, all foreign military assets (in the process of being downsized and cut-back, at that time, as it was), the Permanent Security Council Seat in the UN (dwindling in value as is), and control and sovereignty of all Lunar, Martian, Antarctic, and other stations, bases, and colonies "outside the sphere of the Earth and the traditional six inhabited Continents and all islands attendant." This was not at all liked at the time, but the offer by then President Matt Shaw to allow all who wanted to go their own way to do so peacefully (and the nation was otherwise about to actually fall into civil war), meant that very few pushed the issue at the time.

-The shift in political and economic power, globally, has led to the Chinese Yuan eclipsing the U.S. Dollar as the "global currency standard," but, mercifully - or perhaps ominously - the PRC Government has not seized many other more frightening opportunities it realistically could at this time.

-Bizarre and (often apocalyptic) cults have sprung up everywhere, with far more prominence, frequency, and popularity than in a long time, but still, collectively, command the hearts of only a small minority of the world's population - just a larger minority than it normal.

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I might've gotten this wrong, but I've drawn up this map of North America in this scenario.

E5Fl96bh.png

There's a few states I'm not entirely sure about.

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6 hours ago, Wiw said:

I might've gotten this wrong, but I've drawn up this map of North America in this scenario.

E5Fl96bh.png

There's a few states I'm not entirely sure about.

Remarkably close, there. Nunavut is part of an Inuit Circumpolar Nation with Greenland, and is trying to negotiate control of Nunavik in Northern Quebec, Nunatsiavut in Northern Labrador, Inuvialuit in the Northern coastal and islands regions of the NWT, the 34 villages of three Regional Settlement Corporations of  Iñupiat Nunaŋat on Alaska's North Coast, and various Yupik settlements in both Alaska and Russia, and POSSIBLY Chukchi settlements in Russia and Aleut settlements in Alaska (though those last two groups always have very mixed feeling about being lumped into a "Greater Inuit Cultural Sphere," despite VERY STRONG linguistic and cultural (and probably historic) similarities - but nothing in terms of political union has been solidified in this regard other than Nunavut and Greenland's status as the heart of this whole affair. Newfoundland and Labrador is part of the "rump," United States, has a strong independentist party. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are part of a larger Caribbean Federation - a Federal nation of most modern Caribbean island nations, and U.S., British, French, and Dutch dependencies, as well as Bermuda, Belize, and the Guianas, while Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are part of a Federation of Greater Micronesia. Arizona, New Mexico, and American Samoa are being carefully debated between a few possibilities. But, otherwise, not bad at all.

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On 6/4/2020 at 6:22 AM, Wiw said:

I might've gotten this wrong, but I've drawn up this map of North America in this scenario.

E5Fl96bh.png

There's a few states I'm not entirely sure about.

Virginia is getting increasingly liberal and Democratic lately - I'm not so sure they'd go with the rest of the South in the event of this sort of breakup.

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2 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Virginia is getting increasingly liberal and Democratic lately - I'm not so sure they'd go with the rest of the South in the event of this sort of breakup.

You may have a very good point there. Especially with the greater urbanization of much of the State's population. I'll like have to make a re-evaluation (but these ideas in total are not a "finished product" yet).

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So, to disengage from the General Forum chat quagmire, and because scenario creation has always been my main interest here, ideally, anyways, I am restarting this package of fictional, hypothetical future scenarios around a fictional view of the world in 2048. I have new and refined ideas ready to add to the mix.

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