TheMiddlePolitical 98 Posted March 11, 2018 Report Share Posted March 11, 2018 States with no candidates include CA no rep, MN no rep, MI no rep, HW no rep, NY no rep, NJ no rep, MD no rep, CT no rep, RI no rep, MA no rep, NE no dem, WY no dem, WA no rep CA(R): Rocky De La Fuente,Power 1,Why not? this is the only declared republican on the wiki page and he is intresting, he has ran very unsucessful bids for the presidency multiple times,and until we can have non partisan elections this will do. De La Fuente 32%,Feinstein 68% MN(R): Michelle Bachman,Power 3,This race could be very interesting, Even though I think many people will completely overlook this race but i honestly think Bachman will make it interesting, this is down my list of "dark horse" elections along with Texas. Bachman 48 Smith 52 MI(R): Justin Amash,Power 2, He isn't even officially declared,but I think he is going to,and will win the nomination, This race will only be even in the same ballfield of "competitive" because Trump won here. Amash 41% Stabenow 59% HW(R): Linda Lingle,Power 1,Only cause she ran last election,no Republican has even declared, she got 37% last election,though If she would run again id expect a similar defeat. Lingle 30%,Hirano 70% NY(R): Rick Lazio,Power 2,I think this would be a good candidate to put up against Gillibrand,Though I see him facing an easy defeat,Though note at age 41 he lost to Clinton 55-43 which I'd say is honestly impressive. Lazio 42% Gillibrand 58% NJ(R): Christ Christie,Power 4,I know,I know this isn't likely but he never declined running,and is listed as a potential candidate. Even though he's unpopular,I think he'd be the closest out of all other potential canidates. Christie 46% Merandez 54% MD(R):Micheal Steele,Power 3,He has a chair on the RNC,and was close in his last senate attempt,could be intresting. Steele 44% Cardin 56% CT(R):Mathew Corey,Power 1,Meh nothing exciting here,Murphy will dominate.Corey 31% Murphy 69% RI(R):Robert Flanders,Power 1,Declared candidate,I believe he will be the nominee. Flanders 25% Whitehouse 75% MA(R):Geoff Deihl,Power 2,Probably isn't really going to give a challenge to Warren. Deihl 35% Warren 65% NE(D):Jane Raybould,Power 2,why isn't this race getting any more talk? I know its a solid R at the moment but Fischer was only polling at 42% in a H2H against Raybould,look for this to be closer than expected. Raybould 46% Fischer 54% WY(D):Garry Trauner,Power 1,nothing special here easy Republican hold. Trauner 24% Barrasso 76% WA(R):Dino Rossi,Power 1,No announcment of running but gave a good challenge a few years back, Rossi 39% Cantwell 61% UT(D):Jenny Wilson,Power 1,Basically the only canidate who is declared and polling in the H2H, Wilson 21% Romney 79% MAINE(R):Paul Lepage,Power 4,Inc Governor of Maine could give King a real challenge. Lepage 47 King 53 VT(R):John MacGovern,Power 1,No ones beating Bernie. MacGovern 20% Sanders 80% NM(R):Susana Martinez,Power 4,Incumbent New Mexico Gov, Martinez 49 Heinrich 51 MN(S)(R):Kurt Daudt,Power 3,Good canidate to face Klocabaur ,Daudt 45 Klokabaur 55 Other Changes to 2018 Base Scenario Rick Scott-Power 3 to 4 Ohio Changed % to Dem 53 Rep 47 Pennsylvania Changed % Dem 53 Rep 47 Tennessee Changed % Rep 56 Dem 44 Texas Changed % Rep 54 Dem 46 Changed Ted Cruz Power From 3 to 4 Changed Virginia % Dem 53 Rep 47 Changed West Virginia % Dem 52 Rep 48 Changed Wisconsin Republican candidate to Kelli Ward power 2 Changed Wisconsin % to Dem 53 Rep 47 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheMiddlePolitical 98 Posted May 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 V2 Updates: MN(2)(S)-Changed Republican Candidate to Karin Housley---Changed % to REP 46% DEM 54% MS(2) Added to ON Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith Democrat Mike Espy REP 54% DEM 46% MAI-Republican Changed from Paul Lepage to Eric Brakey KING 57% Brakey 43% IN-Republican Change to Mike Braun MI Republican changed to John James WA changed to republican running NONE Wisiconsin changed republican to Leah Vukmir REP 45 DEM 55 WV Changed candidate to Patrick Morrisey New Mexico changed Republican to Mike Rich REP 42 Dem 58 Hawaii Republican changed to Thomas Edward White New Jersey Republican changed to Bob Hugin REP 42 DEM 58 MN(1) Republican changed to Jim Newberger I will do a FINAL update after all the primaries thank you everyone for the suggestions:) Updated is here on campaign page: http://campaigns.270soft.com/2018/03/11/updated-2018-senate-scenario-with-all-rep-and-dems-having-a-candidateand-updated-stats-v-1-0/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 444 Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 On 2018-03-10 at 5:27 PM, TheMiddlePolitical said: States with no candidates include CA no rep, MN no rep, MI no rep, HW no rep, NY no rep, NJ no rep, MD no rep, CT no rep, RI no rep, MA no rep, NE no dem, WY no dem, WA no rep CA(R): Rocky De La Fuente,Power 1,Why not? this is the only declared republican on the wiki page and he is intresting, he has ran very unsucessful bids for the presidency multiple times,and until we can have non partisan elections this will do. De La Fuente 32%,Feinstein 68% MN(R): Michelle Bachman,Power 3,This race could be very interesting, Even though I think many people will completely overlook this race but i honestly think Bachman will make it interesting, this is down my list of "dark horse" elections along with Texas. Bachman 48 Smith 52 MI(R): Justin Amash,Power 2, He isn't even officially declared,but I think he is going to,and will win the nomination, This race will only be even in the same ballfield of "competitive" because Trump won here. Amash 41% Stabenow 59% HW(R): Linda Lingle,Power 1,Only cause she ran last election,no Republican has even declared, she got 37% last election,though If she would run again id expect a similar defeat. Lingle 30%,Hirano 70% NY(R): Rick Lazio,Power 2,I think this would be a good candidate to put up against Gillibrand,Though I see him facing an easy defeat,Though note at age 41 he lost to Clinton 55-43 which I'd say is honestly impressive. Lazio 42% Gillibrand 58% NJ(R): Christ Christie,Power 4,I know,I know this isn't likely but he never declined running,and is listed as a potential candidate. Even though he's unpopular,I think he'd be the closest out of all other potential canidates. Christie 46% Merandez 54% MD(R):Micheal Steele,Power 3,He has a chair on the RNC,and was close in his last senate attempt,could be intresting. Steele 44% Cardin 56% CT(R):Mathew Corey,Power 1,Meh nothing exciting here,Murphy will dominate.Corey 31% Murphy 69% RI(R):Robert Flanders,Power 1,Declared candidate,I believe he will be the nominee. Flanders 25% Whitehouse 75% MA(R):Geoff Deihl,Power 2,Probably isn't really going to give a challenge to Warren. Deihl 35% Warren 65% NE(D):Jane Raybould,Power 2,why isn't this race getting any more talk? I know its a solid R at the moment but Fischer was only polling at 42% in a H2H against Raybould,look for this to be closer than expected. Raybould 46% Fischer 54% WY(D):Garry Trauner,Power 1,nothing special here easy Republican hold. Trauner 24% Barrasso 76% WA(R):Dino Rossi,Power 1,No announcment of running but gave a good challenge a few years back, Rossi 39% Cantwell 61% UT(D):Jenny Wilson,Power 1,Basically the only canidate who is declared and polling in the H2H, Wilson 21% Romney 79% MAINE(R):Paul Lepage,Power 4,Inc Governor of Maine could give King a real challenge. Lepage 47 King 53 VT(R):John MacGovern,Power 1,No ones beating Bernie. MacGovern 20% Sanders 80% NM(R):Susana Martinez,Power 4,Incumbent New Mexico Gov, Martinez 49 Heinrich 51 MN(S)(R):Kurt Daudt,Power 3,Good canidate to face Klocabaur ,Daudt 45 Klokabaur 55 Other Changes to 2018 Base Scenario Rick Scott-Power 3 to 4 Ohio Changed % to Dem 53 Rep 47 Pennsylvania Changed % Dem 53 Rep 47 Tennessee Changed % Rep 56 Dem 44 Texas Changed % Rep 54 Dem 46 Changed Ted Cruz Power From 3 to 4 Changed Virginia % Dem 53 Rep 47 Changed West Virginia % Dem 52 Rep 48 Changed Wisconsin Republican candidate to Kelli Ward power 2 Changed Wisconsin % to Dem 53 Rep 47 I'm surprised you can't come up with a more prominent California Republican than someone who ran as a Third Party candidate (but probably the least odious candidate, period, in the GE, across the board, however) in 2016... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheMiddlePolitical 98 Posted May 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Patine said: I'm surprised you can't come up with a more prominent California Republican than someone who ran as a Third Party candidate (but probably the least odious candidate, period, in the GE, across the board, however) in 2016... I'll have him changed for the final version V3, but come on you gotta love the guy, on the ballot for Senator for Florida AND California, lol Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheMiddlePolitical 98 Posted May 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 V3 (FINAL) update VT: Removed Republican candidate Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Patine 444 Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said: I'll have him changed for the final version V3, but come on you gotta love the guy, on the ballot for Senator for Florida AND California, lol Oh, definitely. He would have been the "least of all evils" candidate in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election in the actual General Election of all running (Democratic, Republican, Third Party, or Independent) that I could have, in all good conscience, brought myself to have actually voted for had I lived in the U.S. and been entitled to vote... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheMiddlePolitical 98 Posted June 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2018 V3 added republicans(and changed some),changed some %'s and power's. Made Kevin De Leon his own party (so he could face Feinstein) He of course sides with the Democrats. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Berg2036 47 Posted July 20, 2018 Report Share Posted July 20, 2018 I think Mn(2) is closer than 54% - 46% its truly a tossup even though none of the handicappers have it anything close to that. With Tim Pawlenty on the ballot for governor and Trumps Rally in Duluth last month which spurred a huge uptick in fundraising for Pete Stauber and Housely who according to her campaign raised more than a million. Also Tina Smith is quite unknown across that state, as is Housley but who ever gets onto the airwaves first will be the next senator and as for cash on hand that are practically tied, unlike MN(1) where Jim Newberger probably has not even raised more than $200,000. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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