Historical Scenario Commission Election Updates!

[vcczar 1,224]

1 hour ago, thr33 said:

This is kind of cool. In how many other races that you've done so far has the obvious frontrunner sat out by default? Those might be fun scenarios I'd be very interested in playing

I think there are a few. 

[vcczar 1,224]

I've changed the general election bonuses to reflect different matchups vs. Reagan (or other Republican)

Republicans are extremely difficult to defeat unless Ron Paul is somehow the candidate. I just ran a simulation of Ted Kennedy vs. Ron Paul. Kennedy wins with 297 EVs and 52.8% of the vote. 

A Kennedy vs. Reagan matchup still isn't close, even though it allows a closer matchup than Reagan vs. Mondale. Kennedy starts with a 9% deficit, and with only 8 states (123 EVs). In the simulation, Kennedy performed better than Mondale, but still lost. Reagan got 55% of the vote and 424 EVs. 

If Gary Hart is the frontrunner, then he has a 9% deficit just as Kennedy does, but he controls only 6 states for 53 EVs against Reagan. 

If Jesse Jackson is the frontrunner, then you also get a 9% deficit, but Jackson controls 6 states and 108 EVs against Reagan. 

Kennedy is Reagan's toughest opponent from the General Election. 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I've changed the general election bonuses to reflect different matchups vs. Reagan (or other Republican)

Republicans are extremely difficult to defeat unless Ron Paul is somehow the candidate. I just ran a simulation of Ted Kennedy vs. Ron Paul. Kennedy wins with 297 EVs and 52.8% of the vote. 

A Kennedy vs. Reagan matchup still isn't close, even though it allows a closer matchup than Reagan vs. Mondale. Kennedy starts with a 9% deficit, and with only 8 states (123 EVs). In the simulation, Kennedy performed better than Mondale, but still lost. Reagan got 55% of the vote and 424 EVs. 

If Gary Hart is the frontrunner, then he has a 9% deficit just as Kennedy does, but he controls only 6 states for 53 EVs against Reagan. 

If Jesse Jackson is the frontrunner, then you also get a 9% deficit, but Jackson controls 6 states and 108 EVs against Reagan. 

Kennedy is Reagan's toughest opponent from the General Election. 

Very interesting. I like this idea

[populist86 7]

31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I've changed the general election bonuses to reflect different matchups vs. Reagan (or other Republican)

Republicans are extremely difficult to defeat unless Ron Paul is somehow the candidate. I just ran a simulation of Ted Kennedy vs. Ron Paul. Kennedy wins with 297 EVs and 52.8% of the vote. 

A Kennedy vs. Reagan matchup still isn't close, even though it allows a closer matchup than Reagan vs. Mondale. Kennedy starts with a 9% deficit, and with only 8 states (123 EVs). In the simulation, Kennedy performed better than Mondale, but still lost. Reagan got 55% of the vote and 424 EVs. 

If Gary Hart is the frontrunner, then he has a 9% deficit just as Kennedy does, but he controls only 6 states for 53 EVs against Reagan. 

If Jesse Jackson is the frontrunner, then you also get a 9% deficit, but Jackson controls 6 states and 108 EVs against Reagan. 

Kennedy is Reagan's toughest opponent from the General Election. 

Very cool, thanks.

Do you think 84 is one of the most difficult, but winnable elections you've worked on (without exploits)? Which other campaigns do you think are as tough (I'm sure some are close to impossible, like 72)?

[vcczar 1,224]

36 minutes ago, thr33 said:

Very cool, thanks.

Do you think 84 is one of the most difficult, but winnable elections you've worked on (without exploits)? Which other campaigns do you think are as tough (I'm sure some are close to impossible, like 72)?

Any of the landslide elections will be difficult to win as the historical losing side--1984, 1972, 1964, 1944, 1940, 1936, 1932, 1928, 1924, 1920, 1904, 1872, 1836, 1820 (what-if someone ran against Monroe), and all the earlier elections, except for 1796 and 1800. 

[Patine 469]

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Any of the landslide elections will be difficult to win as the historical losing side--1984, 1972, 1964, 1944, 1940, 1936, 1932, 1928, 1924, 1920, 1904, 1872, 1836, 1820 (what-if someone ran against Monroe), and all the earlier elections, except for 1796 and 1800. 

Although, notably, 1932 is unique among the ones you listed, in that it was a sitting, incumbent President who lost in a landslide there.

[vcczar 1,224]

6 minutes ago, Patine said:

Although, notably, 1932 is unique among the ones you listed, in that it was a sitting, incumbent President who lost in a landslide there.

May 2020 replicate that. 

[vcczar 1,224]

@TheLiberalKitten

I just finished adjusting the endorser values and positions. I'll probably be done making changes tomorrow, and then I can send you the update file to post, and then I'll post the updated 1984. 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

@TheLiberalKitten

I just finished adjusting the endorser values and positions. I'll probably be done making changes tomorrow, and then I can send you the update file to post, and then I'll post the updated 1984. 

Okay! Looking forward to it! 

[vcczar 1,224]

@TheLiberalKitten

I've attached the 1988 scenario to this post. I'll do a further update when I do the "final" updates to all the scenarios, but it will be awhile until I get back to 1988, since I'll start from 1788 when I get to that round of updates. 

If you could add the following, or something similar to it, when you update your campaign page, I would appreciate it:

"This scenario was updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on November 12, 2017 and can be downloaded here:        "

Let me know when you update your page and I'll make the announcement for the release of 1984 and 1988. 

 

United States - 1988v2.0.zip

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

24 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@TheLiberalKitten

I've attached the 1988 scenario to this post. I'll do a further update when I do the "final" updates to all the scenarios, but it will be awhile until I get back to 1988, since I'll start from 1788 when I get to that round of updates. 

If you could add the following, or something similar to it, when you update your campaign page, I would appreciate it:

"This scenario was updated by the Historical Scenario Commission on November 12, 2017 and can be downloaded here:        "

Let me know when you update your page and I'll make the announcement for the release of 1984 and 1988. 

 

United States - 1988v2.0.zip

I'm on it 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

@vcczar there we go. it's been updated

[vcczar 1,224]

2 hours ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

@vcczar there we go. it's been updated

I forgot to mention that the 1988 election is the first election I remember. Updating this was sort of like a return to very old memories, especially when adding events. I was in elementary school, and our teacher made us "vote" for president. Me and my best friend were the only people in this Texas classroom to vote for Dukakis over Bush. I remember voting for him primarily because I felt sorry that no one was voting for him--I had zero political interests or political understanding at that age. In the cafeteria, I remembered a classmate wore a "From George to George" T-Shirt that had Washington and Bush on it. I remember seeing Jesse Jackson on TV, and liking the passion he had when he spoke. I remember thinking it would be weird to say President Bush, after having always said and heard President Reagan while growing up. The next election, 1992, was the first election in which I had any political awareness. 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I forgot to mention that the 1988 election is the first election I remember. Updating this was sort of like a return to very old memories, especially when adding events. I was in elementary school, and our teacher made us "vote" for president. Me and my best friend were the only people in this Texas classroom to vote for Dukakis over Bush. I remember voting for him primarily because I felt sorry that no one was voting for him--I had zero political interests or political understanding at that age. In the cafeteria, I remembered a classmate wore a "From George to George" T-Shirt that had Washington and Bush on it. I remember seeing Jesse Jackson on TV, and liking the passion he had when he spoke. I remember thinking it would be weird to say President Bush, after having always said and heard President Reagan while growing up. The next election, 1992, was the first election in which I had any political awareness. 

1988 for me was always my favorite. I recently just ordered a book about it as I want to learn more about it as it was before my time. The first election I remember has to be 2008. I'm very young lol

But it was the first I got into. 

[Patine 469]

20 minutes ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

1988 for me was always my favorite. I recently just ordered a book about it as I want to learn more about it as it was before my time. The first election I remember has to be 2008. I'm very young lol

But it was the first I got into. 

1988 was the first U.S. Presidential election I clearly remember (even though I was only 12 years old). In fact, I remember greatly favouring Dukakis over Bush because Dukakis had a "cool" last name and Bush had a "loser" last name - as I said, I was quite young. I remember Jesse Jackson in the Democratic Primaries - he was quite the speaker. My friends and I all were convinced he must be related to the Jackson family of singers. Notably, however, media coverage of that election was incredibly sparse compared to 21st Century elections. You didn't get 25 updates on it every day!

[Bruce Fischer 1]

54 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I forgot to mention that the 1988 election is the first election I remember. Updating this was sort of like a return to very old memories, especially when adding events. I was in elementary school, and our teacher made us "vote" for president. Me and my best friend were the only people in this Texas classroom to vote for Dukakis over Bush. I remember voting for him primarily because I felt sorry that no one was voting for him--I had zero political interests or political understanding at that age. In the cafeteria, I remembered a classmate wore a "From George to George" T-Shirt that had Washington and Bush on it. I remember seeing Jesse Jackson on TV, and liking the passion he had when he spoke. I remember thinking it would be weird to say President Bush, after having always said and heard President Reagan while growing up. The next election, 1992, was the first election in which I had any political awareness. 

 

43 minutes ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

1988 for me was always my favorite. I recently just ordered a book about it as I want to learn more about it as it was before my time. The first election I remember has to be 2008. I'm very young lol

But it was the first I got into. 

 

18 minutes ago, Patine said:

1988 was the first U.S. Presidential election I clearly remember (even though I was only 12 years old). In fact, I remember greatly favouring Dukakis over Bush because Dukakis had a "cool" last name and Bush had a "loser" last name - as I said, I was quite young. I remember Jesse Jackson in the Democratic Primaries - he was quite the speaker. My friends and I all were convinced he must be related to the Jackson family of singers. Notably, however, media coverage of that election was incredibly sparse compared to 21st Century elections. You didn't get 25 updates on it every day!

2008 is the first I remember any of, 2012 is the first one I had any opinions on, and 2016 was the first I truly cared about and invested myself in. I clearly remember my mom telling 8-year-old me during the 2008 Democratic primaries that the next President would either be a woman or an African-American man; even though she was a Republican (who eventually, I recently found out, voted for Obama), she had little faith in McCain, it would seem. I remember thinking that comment was cool.

As a kid, I felt the same way about Obama that you seem to have felt about Jesse Jackson (who I think would have been a good President too). He was a very good speaker and had the "cool" factor due to his youth. This appealed to me even as a child who didn't care about politics.

[populist86 7]

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

I forgot to mention that the 1988 election is the first election I remember. Updating this was sort of like a return to very old memories, especially when adding events. I was in elementary school, and our teacher made us "vote" for president. Me and my best friend were the only people in this Texas classroom to vote for Dukakis over Bush. I remember voting for him primarily because I felt sorry that no one was voting for him--I had zero political interests or political understanding at that age. In the cafeteria, I remembered a classmate wore a "From George to George" T-Shirt that had Washington and Bush on it. I remember seeing Jesse Jackson on TV, and liking the passion he had when he spoke. I remember thinking it would be weird to say President Bush, after having always said and heard President Reagan while growing up. The next election, 1992, was the first election in which I had any political awareness. 

We did the same thing when I was in kindergarten for the 92 election. I voted for Perot. I think Bush actually had the most votes in our class (in NY).

[vcczar 1,224]

Update: The original creator of the 1992 election made a far from complete scenario, and the updating will take much longer than anticipated. Also, I'm wondering if I can send my 1996 file to @TheLiberalKitten to see if the Govs and Sens are accurate on it, since I think it's a copy of the 1992 scenario. For 1992, so far, I've added candidates, set their positions, abilities, surrogates, etc. I've also changes some of the issues and issue stances, and I've added events. 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Update: The original creator of the 1992 election made a far from complete scenario, and the updating will take much longer than anticipated. Also, I'm wondering if I can send my 1996 file to @TheLiberalKitten to see if the Govs and Sens are accurate on it, since I think it's a copy of the 1992 scenario. For 1992, so far, I've added candidates, set their positions, abilities, surrogates, etc. I've also changes some of the issues and issue stances, and I've added events. 

Go for it. I'll give it a check. 

[vcczar 1,224]

@TheLiberalKitten

Thanks! Here it is: 

1996-BetaEndorserCheck.zip

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@TheLiberalKitten

Thanks! Here it is: 

1996-BetaEndorserCheck.zip

I'll check it right away! 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

The endorsers are way off. They're from 2004, not 1992. I'll fix them.

[vcczar 1,224]

1 hour ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

The endorsers are way off. They're from 2004, not 1992. I'll fix them.

Thanks. That means the 1992 ones might be off, too. When I'm done with 1992, I'll send that one to you to double check, while I work on 1996. I don't know why people publish half-made scenarios. This is the main reason why I initially was only going to update scenarios through 1956. 

[TheLiberalKitten 300]

4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Thanks. That means the 1992 ones might be off, too. When I'm done with 1992, I'll send that one to you to double check, while I work on 1996. I don't know why people publish half-made scenarios. This is the main reason why I initially was only going to update scenarios through 1956. 

I know! That's why when I made 1988 I tried to make it as complete as possible. 

Sure thing. I'm adding the Governors and Senators now. I should be able to finish by the weekend, unless I have a lot of homework. 

[vcczar 1,224]

2 minutes ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

I know! That's why when I made 1988 I tried to make it as complete as possible. 

Sure thing. I'm adding the Governors and Senators now. I should be able to finish by the weekend, unless I have a lot of homework. 

Thanks