RI Democrat Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 I've started working on a PI-compatible version of my Europe 2019 scenario where voters are choosing the European Council President, and the trickiest part is coming up with some reasonable coalitions of parties for the primaries and the general election that won't result in either (a) somebody regularly winning an electoral college majority with less than 30% of the popular vote or (b) almost every election ending with "Congress" choosing a winner. I know that the two-round popular vote feature is on the way, but I'd rather come up with a scenario that works either way. Those of you familiar with the current groupings in the European Parliament will presumably agree that this isn't possible if they each start out as their own party. (You can read more about them at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament.) So I'm considering a few different combinations and was hoping you all might give me some feedback. Combination 1 Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and GUE-NGL) Centrists & Liberals for Europe (ALDE & a few other centrists such as Emmanuel Macron) Alliance of European Conservatives (EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF) European Communist Alliance (Marxists/communists, currently non-inscrits) European Nationalist Movement (Neo-fascists / extreme nationalists, also currently non-inscrits) The main drawback to this is that it's hard to imagine the generally pro-European conservatives of EPP agreeing to work with, or share a primary with, some of the more radical Eurosceptics in EFDD or ENF. Basically, you'd have Angela Merkel and Marine LePen in the same party. Combination 2 Socialist Coalition (GUE-NGL and Marxists/communist non-inscrits) Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and center/center-left ALDE members) Democrats for Europe (EPP and center-right ALDE members) European Freedom Alliance (ECR, EFDD, ENF - more of a uniformly nationalist/eurosceptic grouping) European Nationalist Movement (the same neo-fascist / extreme nationalist non-inscrits) These coalitions would probably be a little more ideologically coherent, but the Socialist Coalition could end up stuck as spoilers and you might start to see the problems I alluded to above, i.e. lack of electoral college winners and/or winners with an extremely low popular vote tally. Combination 3 Left Alternative (GUE-NGL, G-EFA, some of the more radical PASD members like Benoit Hamon, and one or two Marxists/communists starting out way behind in primaries) Progressives and Democrats for Europe (PASD moderates, most of ALDE, possibly a few centrist EPP members like the Dutch CDA) Alliance of European Conservatives (most of EPP and ECR) European Freedom Alliance (EFDD, ENF, and a few neo-fascists/extremists also starting out way behind in primaries) This would really be scrambling the parties quite a bit, though perhaps you could see something like this happening if they really were competing in a presidential/electoral college system instead of a parliamentary one. I suspect that this version of the Freedom Alliance would be largely electorally DOA, however. What do you all think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 you could develop it with popular vote and wait for two-round and then release it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patine Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 54 minutes ago, RI Democrat said: I've started working on a PI-compatible version of my Europe 2019 scenario where voters are choosing the European Council President, and the trickiest part is coming up with some reasonable coalitions of parties for the primaries and the general election that won't result in either (a) somebody regularly winning an electoral college majority with less than 30% of the popular vote or (b) almost every election ending with "Congress" choosing a winner. I know that the two-round popular vote feature is on the way, but I'd rather come up with a scenario that works either way. Those of you familiar with the current groupings in the European Parliament will presumably agree that this isn't possible if they each start out as their own party. (You can read more about them at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament.) So I'm considering a few different combinations and was hoping you all might give me some feedback. Combination 1 Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and GUE-NGL) Centrists & Liberals for Europe (ALDE & a few other centrists such as Emmanuel Macron) Alliance of European Conservatives (EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF) European Communist Alliance (Marxists/communists, currently non-inscrits) European Nationalist Movement (Neo-fascists / extreme nationalists, also currently non-inscrits) The main drawback to this is that it's hard to imagine the generally pro-European conservatives of EPP agreeing to work with, or share a primary with, some of the more radical Eurosceptics in EFDD or ENF. Basically, you'd have Angela Merkel and Marine LePen in the same party. Combination 2 Socialist Coalition (GUE-NGL and Marxists/communist non-inscrits) Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and center/center-left ALDE members) Democrats for Europe (EPP and center-right ALDE members) European Freedom Alliance (ECR, EFDD, ENF - more of a uniformly nationalist/eurosceptic grouping) European Nationalist Movement (the same neo-fascist / extreme nationalist non-inscrits) These coalitions would probably be a little more ideologically coherent, but the Socialist Coalition could end up stuck as spoilers and you might start to see the problems I alluded to above, i.e. lack of electoral college winners and/or winners with an extremely low popular vote tally. Combination 3 Left Alternative (GUE-NGL, G-EFA, some of the more radical PASD members like Benoit Hamon, and one or two Marxists/communists starting out way behind in primaries) Progressives and Democrats for Europe (PASD moderates, most of ALDE, possibly a few centrist EPP members like the Dutch CDA) Alliance of European Conservatives (most of EPP and ECR) European Freedom Alliance (EFDD, ENF, and a few neo-fascists/extremists also starting out way behind in primaries) This would really be scrambling the parties quite a bit, though perhaps you could see something like this happening if they really were competing in a presidential/electoral college system instead of a parliamentary one. I suspect that this version of the Freedom Alliance would be largely electorally DOA, however. What do you all think? I actually think the European Parliament, in the case of the EU, is a more interesting election, because, in the EU, there's a whole bunch of national parties grouped loosely into 10-20 European Parties and Parliamentary Groups (with a few parties sitting alone). This means a European Parliament election actually takes the whole thrum and zeitgeist of the political scene in the EU at that time into perspective, whereas, by nature, a President of Council ends up being highly unrepresentative, or only representative of a minority of political factions, and, in the end, representing only one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Patine said: I actually think the European Parliament, in the case of the EU, is a more interesting election, because, in the EU, there's a whole bunch of national parties grouped loosely into 10-20 European Parties and Parliamentary Groups (with a few parties sitting alone). This means a European Parliament election actually takes the whole thrum and zeitgeist of the political scene in the EU at that time into perspective, whereas, by nature, a President of Council ends up being highly unrepresentative, or only representative of a minority of political factions, and, in the end, representing only one of them. he did one for chancellor forever he just feels that doing it using FPTP would be a bit of a stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patine Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Just now, NYrepublican said: he did one for chancellor forever he just feels that doing it using FPTP would be a bit of a stretch. I'd forgotten about that one. So many scenarios put out, one can lose track. My apologies, RI Democrat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 #2 And like @NYrepublican said, you could do 2 round popular vote when that is released Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Democrat Posted July 12, 2017 Author Share Posted July 12, 2017 I agree, actually - the parliamentary scenario is more in line with European politics and the one I preferred working on. I decided to do this one too partly because it seemed like interest in the parliamentary one was relatively low due to it being on K4E. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Democrat Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties. Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment: Socialist Coalition Jean-Luc Melenchon Pablo Iglesias Alexis Tsipras Andros Kyprianou Dimitris Koutsoumpas Nathalie Arthaud Union of European Progressives Martin Schulz Antonio Costa Stefan Lofven Benoit Hamon Renate Kunast Nicola Sturgeon Margarethe Vestager Miro Cerar Democrats for Europe Angela Merkel Mariano Rajoy Donald Tusk Fredrik Reinfeldt Juha Sipila Mark Rutte Guy Verhofstadt European Freedom Alliance Jaroslaw Kaczynski Marine LePen Matteo Salvini Geert Wilders Jimmie Akesson (also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP) European Nationalist Movement Gabor Vona Udo Voigt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patine Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, RI Democrat said: I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties. Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment: Socialist Coalition Jean-Luc Melenchon Pablo Iglesias Alexis Tsipras Andros Kyprianou Dimitris Koutsoumpas Nathalie Arthaud Union of European Progressives Martin Schulz Antonio Costa Stefan Lofven Benoit Hamon Renate Kunast Nicola Sturgeon Margarethe Vestager Miro Cerar Democrats for Europe Angela Merkel Mariano Rajoy Donald Tusk Fredrik Reinfeldt Juha Sipila Mark Rutte Guy Verhofstadt European Freedom Alliance Jaroslaw Kaczynski Marine LePen Matteo Salvini Geert Wilders Jimmie Akesson (also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP) European Nationalist Movement Gabor Vona Udo Voigt What about Volen Siderov and Marian Kotleba (even though Vona and Kotleba greatly dislike each other) as ENM candidates? Oh, and don't forget Alexandria Mussolini (you-know-who from Italy's own granddaughter, in fact) as either EFA or possibly ENM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 5 hours ago, RI Democrat said: I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties. Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment: Socialist Coalition Jean-Luc Melenchon Pablo Iglesias Alexis Tsipras Andros Kyprianou Dimitris Koutsoumpas Nathalie Arthaud Union of European Progressives Martin Schulz Antonio Costa Stefan Lofven Benoit Hamon Renate Kunast Nicola Sturgeon Margarethe Vestager Miro Cerar Democrats for Europe Angela Merkel Mariano Rajoy Donald Tusk Fredrik Reinfeldt Juha Sipila Mark Rutte Guy Verhofstadt European Freedom Alliance Jaroslaw Kaczynski Marine LePen Matteo Salvini Geert Wilders Jimmie Akesson (also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP) European Nationalist Movement Gabor Vona Udo Voigt I'd put Orban with the EFA. Beppe Grillo could be another option for EFA (leader of the 5 Star Movement; could possibly become Prime Minister after the next election in 2018). Like Patine mentioned, Volen Siderov could be included, but I'd put him with EFA. Like Patine also mentioned, Marian Kotleba for the ENM. Roberto Fiore, chair of the Alliance for Peace and Freedom, in the EU Parliament for ENM. Nikolaos Michaloliakos, leader and Founder of Golden Dawn, for ENM. Udo Voigt, former leader of the National Democratic Party of Germany and their first and only MEP, for ENM. Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, for Socialist Coalition. Béla Kovács, member of Jobbik and leader of Alliance of European National Movements, for ENM. Gábor Vona, leader of Jobbik and one of its founders, for ENM. Jussi Halla-aho, leader of the Finns Party and MEP, for EFA. Jan Zahradil, President of Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe and MEP, for EFA. Frauke Petry, leader of AfD, for EFA. Norbert Hofer and Heinz-Christian Strache, of the Freedom Party of Austria, for EFA. Matteo Renzi; former Prime Minister of Italy, candidate for Prime Minister for the 2018 election, and Secretary of the Democratic Party; for UEP. François Bayrou, MoDem in France, for DfE or UEP Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout la France, for EFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 I remember @Thatsmyusername had a UN project going and then he disappeared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patine Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Just now, NYrepublican said: I remember @Thatsmyusername had a UN project going and then he disappeared. I had a plan at some point along the line to do a UN election of sorts, but it would be an elected General Assembly using those political party international organizations I'd dug up (plus a few that don't exist but would be plausible to fill some gaps) in a similar way to how European Parliament parties bridge EU member national parties. But, given I didn't think it was a realistic idea, I wouldn't do a single apex executive office on a global scale for direct election myself. And, I would do an elected General Assembly election by CI likely, not PMI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Democrat Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 Thanks for the suggestions - I could definitely use some more possibilities for some of the more "fringe" parties. About Grillo, I'm reluctant to use him for EFA because his party seems to be kind of an ideological big tent, not consistently right wing, and arguably even left wing on some issues. What I might do with him is to make him an endorser on the Corruption issue, which seems to be one of the issues he tends to stress. I'll probably do the same with Emmanuel Macron and have him endorse on the center-right position on Economic Regulation. I'm not sure whether he'd be in the Progressives or the Democrats otherwise, and he probably wouldn't be interested in taking on an arguably less prestigious and powerful position after less than two years as President of France. As for Gerry Adams, I guess I figure there would still be too many uncomfortable questions about Sinn Fein's historical ties to the IRA for him to be elected to a Europe-wide position like Council President. Though I might add Enda Kenny as an option for the Democrats now that he's resigned as Taoiseach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Democrat Posted July 14, 2017 Author Share Posted July 14, 2017 Siderov is a good suggestion too. Though who the hell starts a political party and names it "Attack"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, RI Democrat said: Thanks for the suggestions - I could definitely use some more possibilities for some of the more "fringe" parties. About Grillo, I'm reluctant to use him for EFA because his party seems to be kind of an ideological big tent, not consistently right wing, and arguably even left wing on some issues. What I might do with him is to make him an endorser on the Corruption issue, which seems to be one of the issues he tends to stress. I'll probably do the same with Emmanuel Macron and have him endorse on the center-right position on Economic Regulation. I'm not sure whether he'd be in the Progressives or the Democrats otherwise, and he probably wouldn't be interested in taking on an arguably less prestigious and powerful position after less than two years as President of France. As for Gerry Adams, I guess I figure there would still be too many uncomfortable questions about Sinn Fein's historical ties to the IRA for him to be elected to a Europe-wide position like Council President. Though I might add Enda Kenny as an option for the Democrats now that he's resigned as Taoiseach. The 5 Star Movement does have some positions on the left (such as its environmentalist stance), but it is in the EFDD with UKIP and is Eurosceptic. The FN (Marine Le Pen) and PVV (Geert Wilders) also have some positions on the left (Le Pen more than Wilders) when it comes to economics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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