Jump to content
270soft Forum

Europe 2019


RI Democrat

Recommended Posts

I've started working on a PI-compatible version of my Europe 2019 scenario where voters are choosing the European Council President, and the trickiest part is coming up with some reasonable coalitions of parties for the primaries and the general election that won't result in either (a) somebody regularly winning an electoral college majority with less than 30% of the popular vote or (b) almost every election ending with "Congress" choosing a winner. I know that the two-round popular vote feature is on the way, but I'd rather come up with a scenario that works either way. Those of you familiar with the current groupings in the European Parliament will presumably agree that this isn't possible if they each start out as their own party. (You can read more about them at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament.)

So I'm considering a few different combinations and was hoping you all might give me some feedback.

Combination 1
Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and GUE-NGL)
Centrists & Liberals for Europe (ALDE & a few other centrists such as Emmanuel Macron)
Alliance of European Conservatives (EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF)
European Communist Alliance (Marxists/communists, currently non-inscrits)
European Nationalist Movement (Neo-fascists / extreme nationalists, also currently non-inscrits)

The main drawback to this is that it's hard to imagine the generally pro-European conservatives of EPP agreeing to work with, or share a primary with, some of the more radical Eurosceptics in EFDD or ENF. Basically, you'd have Angela Merkel and Marine LePen in the same party.

Combination 2
Socialist Coalition (GUE-NGL and Marxists/communist non-inscrits)
Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and center/center-left ALDE members)
Democrats for Europe (EPP and center-right ALDE members)
European Freedom Alliance (ECR, EFDD, ENF - more of a uniformly nationalist/eurosceptic grouping)
European Nationalist Movement (the same neo-fascist / extreme nationalist non-inscrits)

These coalitions would probably be a little more ideologically coherent, but the Socialist Coalition could end up stuck as spoilers and you might start to see the problems I alluded to above, i.e. lack of electoral college winners and/or winners with an extremely low popular vote tally.

Combination 3
Left Alternative (GUE-NGL, G-EFA, some of the more radical PASD members like Benoit Hamon, and one or two Marxists/communists starting out way behind in primaries)
Progressives and Democrats for Europe (PASD moderates, most of ALDE, possibly a few centrist EPP members like the Dutch CDA)
Alliance of European Conservatives (most of EPP and ECR)
European Freedom Alliance (EFDD, ENF, and a few neo-fascists/extremists also starting out way behind in primaries)

This would really be scrambling the parties quite a bit, though perhaps you could see something like this happening if they really were competing in a presidential/electoral college system instead of a parliamentary one. I suspect that this version of the Freedom Alliance would be largely electorally DOA, however.

What do you all think?

Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I've started working on a PI-compatible version of my Europe 2019 scenario where voters are choosing the European Council President, and the trickiest part is coming up with some reasonable coalitions of parties for the primaries and the general election that won't result in either (a) somebody regularly winning an electoral college majority with less than 30% of the popular vote or (b) almost every election ending with "Congress" choosing a winner. I know that the two-round popular vote feature is on the way, but I'd rather come up with a scenario that works either way. Those of you familiar with the current groupings in the European Parliament will presumably agree that this isn't possible if they each start out as their own party. (You can read more about them at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament.)

So I'm considering a few different combinations and was hoping you all might give me some feedback.

Combination 1
Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and GUE-NGL)
Centrists & Liberals for Europe (ALDE & a few other centrists such as Emmanuel Macron)
Alliance of European Conservatives (EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF)
European Communist Alliance (Marxists/communists, currently non-inscrits)
European Nationalist Movement (Neo-fascists / extreme nationalists, also currently non-inscrits)

The main drawback to this is that it's hard to imagine the generally pro-European conservatives of EPP agreeing to work with, or share a primary with, some of the more radical Eurosceptics in EFDD or ENF. Basically, you'd have Angela Merkel and Marine LePen in the same party.

Combination 2
Socialist Coalition (GUE-NGL and Marxists/communist non-inscrits)
Union of European Progressives (PASD, G-EFA, and center/center-left ALDE members)
Democrats for Europe (EPP and center-right ALDE members)
European Freedom Alliance (ECR, EFDD, ENF - more of a uniformly nationalist/eurosceptic grouping)
European Nationalist Movement (the same neo-fascist / extreme nationalist non-inscrits)

These coalitions would probably be a little more ideologically coherent, but the Socialist Coalition could end up stuck as spoilers and you might start to see the problems I alluded to above, i.e. lack of electoral college winners and/or winners with an extremely low popular vote tally.

Combination 3
Left Alternative (GUE-NGL, G-EFA, some of the more radical PASD members like Benoit Hamon, and one or two Marxists/communists starting out way behind in primaries)
Progressives and Democrats for Europe (PASD moderates, most of ALDE, possibly a few centrist EPP members like the Dutch CDA)
Alliance of European Conservatives (most of EPP and ECR)
European Freedom Alliance (EFDD, ENF, and a few neo-fascists/extremists also starting out way behind in primaries)

This would really be scrambling the parties quite a bit, though perhaps you could see something like this happening if they really were competing in a presidential/electoral college system instead of a parliamentary one. I suspect that this version of the Freedom Alliance would be largely electorally DOA, however.

What do you all think?

I actually think the European Parliament, in the case of the EU, is a more interesting election, because, in the EU, there's a whole bunch of national parties grouped loosely into 10-20 European Parties and Parliamentary Groups (with a few parties sitting alone). This means a European Parliament election actually takes the whole thrum and zeitgeist of the political scene in the EU at that time into perspective, whereas, by nature, a President of Council ends up being highly unrepresentative, or only representative of a minority of political factions, and, in the end, representing only one of them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Patine said:

I actually think the European Parliament, in the case of the EU, is a more interesting election, because, in the EU, there's a whole bunch of national parties grouped loosely into 10-20 European Parties and Parliamentary Groups (with a few parties sitting alone). This means a European Parliament election actually takes the whole thrum and zeitgeist of the political scene in the EU at that time into perspective, whereas, by nature, a President of Council ends up being highly unrepresentative, or only representative of a minority of political factions, and, in the end, representing only one of them.

he did one for chancellor forever he just feels that doing it using FPTP would be a bit of a stretch.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NYrepublican said:

he did one for chancellor forever he just feels that doing it using FPTP would be a bit of a stretch.

I'd forgotten about that one. So many scenarios put out, one can lose track. My apologies, RI Democrat.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, actually - the parliamentary scenario is more in line with European politics and the one I preferred working on. I decided to do this one too partly because it seemed like interest in the parliamentary one was relatively low due to it being on K4E.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties.

Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment:

Socialist Coalition
Jean-Luc Melenchon
Pablo Iglesias
Alexis Tsipras
Andros Kyprianou
Dimitris Koutsoumpas
Nathalie Arthaud

Union of European Progressives
Martin Schulz
Antonio Costa
Stefan Lofven
Benoit Hamon
Renate Kunast
Nicola Sturgeon
Margarethe Vestager
Miro Cerar

Democrats for Europe
Angela Merkel
Mariano Rajoy
Donald Tusk
Fredrik Reinfeldt
Juha Sipila
Mark Rutte
Guy Verhofstadt

European Freedom Alliance
Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Marine LePen
Matteo Salvini
Geert Wilders
Jimmie Akesson
(also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP)

European Nationalist Movement
Gabor Vona
Udo Voigt

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties.

Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment:

Socialist Coalition
Jean-Luc Melenchon
Pablo Iglesias
Alexis Tsipras
Andros Kyprianou
Dimitris Koutsoumpas
Nathalie Arthaud

Union of European Progressives
Martin Schulz
Antonio Costa
Stefan Lofven
Benoit Hamon
Renate Kunast
Nicola Sturgeon
Margarethe Vestager
Miro Cerar

Democrats for Europe
Angela Merkel
Mariano Rajoy
Donald Tusk
Fredrik Reinfeldt
Juha Sipila
Mark Rutte
Guy Verhofstadt

European Freedom Alliance
Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Marine LePen
Matteo Salvini
Geert Wilders
Jimmie Akesson
(also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP)

European Nationalist Movement
Gabor Vona
Udo Voigt

What about Volen Siderov and Marian Kotleba (even though Vona and Kotleba greatly dislike each other) as ENM candidates? Oh, and don't forget Alexandria Mussolini (you-know-who from Italy's own granddaughter, in fact) as either EFA or possibly ENM.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, RI Democrat said:

I've started working on a Combination 2 scenario. There won't be as many choices of leader as in the parliamentary scenario, as that would make the primaries ridiculously complicated, so I'm concentrating on the ones with more governing experience. I'll admit that I'm more familiar with the current and former heads of state of the larger Western countries, so if anyone can think of some alternatives from smaller and Eastern countries that would make sense as a primary candidate, feel free to make suggestions. I'm also trying to keep the number of candidates proportional to the size of their faction within the parties.

Here's who I'm contemplating at the moment:

Socialist Coalition
Jean-Luc Melenchon
Pablo Iglesias
Alexis Tsipras
Andros Kyprianou
Dimitris Koutsoumpas
Nathalie Arthaud

Union of European Progressives
Martin Schulz
Antonio Costa
Stefan Lofven
Benoit Hamon
Renate Kunast
Nicola Sturgeon
Margarethe Vestager
Miro Cerar

Democrats for Europe
Angela Merkel
Mariano Rajoy
Donald Tusk
Fredrik Reinfeldt
Juha Sipila
Mark Rutte
Guy Verhofstadt

European Freedom Alliance
Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Marine LePen
Matteo Salvini
Geert Wilders
Jimmie Akesson
(also contemplating putting Viktor Orban here even though his party is in EPP)

European Nationalist Movement
Gabor Vona
Udo Voigt

I'd put Orban with the EFA.

Beppe Grillo could be another option for EFA (leader of the 5 Star Movement; could possibly become Prime Minister after the next election in 2018).

Like Patine mentioned, Volen Siderov could be included, but I'd put him with EFA.

Like Patine also mentioned, Marian Kotleba for the ENM.

Roberto Fiore, chair of the Alliance for Peace and Freedom, in the EU Parliament for ENM.

Nikolaos Michaloliakos, leader and Founder of Golden Dawn, for ENM.

Udo Voigt, former leader of the National Democratic Party of Germany and their first and only MEP, for ENM.

Gerry Adams, leader of Sinn Fein, for Socialist Coalition.

Béla Kovács, member of Jobbik and leader of Alliance of European National Movements, for ENM.

Gábor Vona, leader of Jobbik and one of its founders, for ENM.

Jussi Halla-aho, leader of the Finns Party and MEP, for EFA.

Jan Zahradil, President of Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe and MEP, for EFA.

Frauke Petry, leader of AfD, for EFA.

Norbert Hofer and Heinz-Christian Strache, of the Freedom Party of Austria, for EFA.

Matteo Renzi; former Prime Minister of Italy, candidate for Prime Minister for the 2018 election, and Secretary of the Democratic Party; for UEP.

François Bayrou, MoDem in France, for DfE or UEP

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of Debout la France, for EFA.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NYrepublican said:

I remember @Thatsmyusername had a UN project going and then he disappeared.

I had a plan at some point along the line to do a UN election of sorts, but it would be an elected General Assembly using those political party international organizations I'd dug up (plus a few that don't exist but would be plausible to fill some gaps) in a similar way to how European Parliament parties bridge EU member national parties. But, given I didn't think it was a realistic idea, I wouldn't do a single apex executive office on a global scale for direct election myself. And, I would do an elected General Assembly election by CI likely, not PMI.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the suggestions - I could definitely use some more possibilities for some of the more "fringe" parties. About Grillo, I'm reluctant to use him for EFA because his party seems to be kind of an ideological big tent, not consistently right wing, and arguably even left wing on some issues. What I might do with him is to make him an endorser on the Corruption issue, which seems to be one of the issues he tends to stress. I'll probably do the same with Emmanuel Macron and have him endorse on the center-right position on Economic Regulation. I'm not sure whether he'd be in the Progressives or the Democrats otherwise, and he probably wouldn't be interested in taking on an arguably less prestigious and powerful position after less than two years as President of France.

As for Gerry Adams, I guess I figure there would still be too many uncomfortable questions about Sinn Fein's historical ties to the IRA for him to be elected to a Europe-wide position like Council President. Though I might add Enda Kenny as an option for the Democrats now that he's resigned as Taoiseach.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

Thanks for the suggestions - I could definitely use some more possibilities for some of the more "fringe" parties. About Grillo, I'm reluctant to use him for EFA because his party seems to be kind of an ideological big tent, not consistently right wing, and arguably even left wing on some issues. What I might do with him is to make him an endorser on the Corruption issue, which seems to be one of the issues he tends to stress. I'll probably do the same with Emmanuel Macron and have him endorse on the center-right position on Economic Regulation. I'm not sure whether he'd be in the Progressives or the Democrats otherwise, and he probably wouldn't be interested in taking on an arguably less prestigious and powerful position after less than two years as President of France.

As for Gerry Adams, I guess I figure there would still be too many uncomfortable questions about Sinn Fein's historical ties to the IRA for him to be elected to a Europe-wide position like Council President. Though I might add Enda Kenny as an option for the Democrats now that he's resigned as Taoiseach.

The 5 Star Movement does have some positions on the left (such as its environmentalist stance), but it is in the EFDD with UKIP and is Eurosceptic.  The FN (Marine Le Pen) and PVV (Geert Wilders) also have some positions on the left (Le Pen more than Wilders) when it comes to economics.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...