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Here's another thing that could use your feedback -- candidate strengths!

My 2020 election assumes that even Republicans are getting tired of Trump and, since Democrats are nearly as unpopular as Republicans as a whole, that Republicans challenging Trump is a realistic possibility. Trump approval rating is about 34% in this. He is facing likely impeachment (but probably not removal). Democrats have failed to excite their base, and have failed to win over reluctant Trump voters. Outside of Trump's base, Republicans hope for a change. Both primaries, and the general election as well, are tossups. 

Those interested in helping me with candidate strength for this scenario can use my template and make their own amendments: 

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY STRENGTH

Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls):

none

Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15% to 25% in the polls): 

Fmr Sec. Hillary Clinton of NY (possibly controls NY, AR, and every state she won in the 2016 primaries)

Fmr VP Joe Biden of DE (controls DE, possibly PA, and possibly every state Clinton carried in the 2016 primaries)

Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT (controls VT, possibly NH, OR, WA, ND, SD, ID, AK, WI, OK, NE, KS, WY, WV)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of MA (controls MA, possibly ME, RI, CT, as well as the possible Sanders states listed above)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY (possibly controls NY, possibly CT, PA, NJ, with strength in IL and other states with massive cities)

Sen. Al Franken of MN (controls MN, possibly ND, SD, MI, WI, IA, with strength in CA, NY)

Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5% to 10% in the polls)

Gov. Gavin Newsom of CA (possibly controls CA, has strength in WA, OR)

Sen. Sherrod Brown of OH (controls OH, possibly MI) 

Sen. Kamala Harris of CA (possibly controls CA, may have some strength in states with a high African-American demographic)

Sen. Cory Booker of NJ (controls NJ, may have strength in states with a large African-American population)

Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls):

Fmr Starbucks CEO & billionaire Howard Schultz of WA (possibly controls WA, and with some strength in Starbucks-heavy states)

CEO and billionaire Tom Steyer of CA (some strength in CA)

Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring); like 3% to 5% in the polls):

Sen. Martin Heinrich of NM (possibly controls NM)

Sen. Terry McAuliffe of VA (controls VA)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of NY (possibly controls NY, may have some strength in CT and NJ)

Gov. Steve Bullock of MT (controls MT, and possibly states similar to MT)

Gov. John Bel Edwards of LA (controls LA, and possibly other Southern states)

Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): 

Mayor Eric Garcetti of CA (some strength in CA)

Rep. Seth Moulton of MA (some strength in MA)

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of HI (possibly controls HI)

Fmr Rep. Alan Grayson of FL (some strength in FL)

Rep. Julian Castro of TX (possibly controls TX, with some strength in NM, AZ)

Mayor Pete Buttigieg of IN (possibly controls IN)

Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls)

Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley of MD (possibly controls MD) 

Fmr Gov. Lincoln Chafee of RI (has strength in RI)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY STRENGTH

Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls):

Pres. Donald Trump of NY (controls about every state, except the states in which politicians of his own party are most outspoken)

Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15-25% in the polls):

Fmr Gov. John Kasich of OH (controls OH, has strength in every relatively liberal state)

Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5-10% in the polls)

Sen. Rand Paul of KY (controls KY, has strength in states that voted heavily for a Libertarian)

Sen. Ted Cruz of TX (controls TX, possibly controls evangelical-heavy states outside the Midwest)

Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls):

None

Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring; likely 3 to 5% in the polls):

Sen. Jon Huntsman of UT (controls UT)

Sen. Susan Collins of ME (controls ME, possibly other New England states)

Fmr Gov. Susana Martinez of NM (controls NM)

Sen. Marco Rubio of FL (controls FL, possibly some strength in moderate-to-conservative states outside the Midwest)

Sen Tom Cotton of AR (controls AR)

Sen. Ben Sasse of NE (Controls NE)

Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): 

None

Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (possibly controls SC, with some strength in AZ, thanks to John McCain)

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  • 3 weeks later...
49 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

@vcczar add in Grace Meng for tier 4.She's democratic national committee vice-chairwoman now so she may run then.

Reminds me of the Ray Stevens song. It's the 43rd Annual Convention of the Grand Mystic Royal Order of the Nobles of the Alibaba Temple of the Shrine. Except for you, it's the 1st Annual Convention of the Grand Mystic Royal Order of the Nobles of the Alibaba Temple of Grace Meng. Seriously, she isn't as relevant as you think bro.

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21 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Reminds me of the Ray Stevens song. It's the 43rd Annual Convention of the Grand Mystic Royal Order of the Nobles of the Alibaba Temple of the Shrine. Except for you, it's the 1st Annual Convention of the Grand Mystic Royal Order of the Nobles of the Alibaba Temple of Grace Meng. Seriously, she isn't as relevant as you think bro.

She's more relevant than whoever your representative is.(Unless it's Elijah Cummings in which case I take that back)

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46 minutes ago, NYrepublican said:

She's more relevant than whoever your representative is.(Unless it's Elijah Cummings in which case I take that back)

I had never heard of her before you started talking about her to be honest.

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1 hour ago, NYrepublican said:

She's more relevant than whoever your representative is.(Unless it's Elijah Cummings in which case I take that back)

All representatives are irrelevant except for like 5.

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16 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

All representatives are irrelevant except for like 5.

In truth, I don't think a single Rep can be much more than VP. Their campaign strength is very limited. Sanders would never have gotten as much attention unless he was a Senator. I think one really has to be an incumbent or former president, incumbent or former VP, Sec of State, Gov or Fmr Gov, Sen or Fmr Sen. or a billionaire CEO, or possibly Speaker to really have a shot at the presidency. Reps (non-speakers) generally run to get more name recognition for a potential run at higher office. This isn't to say that a Rep wouldn't make a good president, but it is unlikely they can really come from behind to secure a nomination. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

In truth, I don't think a single Rep can be much more than VP. Their campaign strength is very limited. Sanders would never have gotten as much attention unless he was a Senator. I think one really has to be an incumbent or former president, incumbent or former VP, Sec of State, Gov or Fmr Gov, Sen or Fmr Sen. or a billionaire CEO, or possibly Speaker to really have a shot at the presidency. Reps (non-speakers) generally run to get more name recognition for a potential run at higher office. This isn't to say that a Rep wouldn't make a good president, but it is unlikely they can really come from behind to secure a nomination. 

I believe, if I recall correctly, Garfield (barring his demise) was the only U.S. President who was elected right from the House of Representatives. Though wasn't Polk the Speaker of the House as his last ELECTED position before being President, and had a Cabinet post or some such in between, or am I mistaken?

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6 minutes ago, Patine said:

I believe, if I recall correctly, Garfield (barring his demise) was the only U.S. President who was elected right from the House of Representatives. Though wasn't Polk the Speaker of the House as his last ELECTED position before being President, and had a Cabinet post or some such in between, or am I mistaken?

Garfield was actually a Senator-elect when he was selected as a dark horse candidate in the convention. Yes, Polk was a speaker, and also a dark horse candidate. Both were inoffensive compromise candidates picked by the convention, but not by the voters. 

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On 7/2/2017 at 11:00 PM, vcczar said:

Here's another thing that could use your feedback -- candidate strengths!

My 2020 election assumes that even Republicans are getting tired of Trump and, since Democrats are nearly as unpopular as Republicans as a whole, that Republicans challenging Trump is a realistic possibility. Trump approval rating is about 34% in this. He is facing likely impeachment (but probably not removal). Democrats have failed to excite their base, and have failed to win over reluctant Trump voters. Outside of Trump's base, Republicans hope for a change. Both primaries, and the general election as well, are tossups. 

Those interested in helping me with candidate strength for this scenario can use my template and make their own amendments: 

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY STRENGTH

Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls):

none

Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15% to 25% in the polls): 

Fmr Sec. Hillary Clinton of NY (possibly controls NY, AR, and every state she won in the 2016 primaries)

Fmr VP Joe Biden of DE (controls DE, possibly PA, and possibly every state Clinton carried in the 2016 primaries)

Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT (controls VT, possibly NH, OR, WA, ND, SD, ID, AK, WI, OK, NE, KS, WY, WV)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of MA (controls MA, possibly ME, RI, CT, as well as the possible Sanders states listed above)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY (possibly controls NY, possibly CT, PA, NJ, with strength in IL and other states with massive cities)

Sen. Al Franken of MN (controls MN, possibly ND, SD, MI, WI, IA, with strength in CA, NY)

Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5% to 10% in the polls)

Gov. Gavin Newsom of CA (possibly controls CA, has strength in WA, OR)

Sen. Sherrod Brown of OH (controls OH, possibly MI) 

Sen. Kamala Harris of CA (possibly controls CA, may have some strength in states with a high African-American demographic)

Sen. Cory Booker of NJ (controls NJ, may have strength in states with a large African-American population)

Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls):

Fmr Starbucks CEO & billionaire Howard Schultz of WA (possibly controls WA, and with some strength in Starbucks-heavy states)

CEO and billionaire Tom Steyer of CA (some strength in CA)

Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring); like 3% to 5% in the polls):

Sen. Martin Heinrich of NM (possibly controls NM)

Sen. Terry McAuliffe of VA (controls VA)

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of NY (possibly controls NY, may have some strength in CT and NJ)

Gov. Steve Bullock of MT (controls MT, and possibly states similar to MT)

Gov. John Bel Edwards of LA (controls LA, and possibly other Southern states)

Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): 

Mayor Eric Garcetti of CA (some strength in CA)

Rep. Seth Moulton of MA (some strength in MA)

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of HI (possibly controls HI)

Fmr Rep. Alan Grayson of FL (some strength in FL)

Rep. Julian Castro of TX (possibly controls TX, with some strength in NM, AZ)

Mayor Pete Buttigieg of IN (possibly controls IN)

Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls)

Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley of MD (possibly controls MD) 

Fmr Gov. Lincoln Chafee of RI (has strength in RI)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY STRENGTH

Tier 1 (Clear front-runner, controls nearly every state; likely 25-50% in the polls):

Pres. Donald Trump of NY (controls about every state, except the states in which politicians of his own party are most outspoken)

Tier 2 (Realistic primary victor; has a national presence that expands beyond their region; likely 15-25% in the polls):

Fmr Gov. John Kasich of OH (controls OH, has strength in every relatively liberal state)

Tier 3 (Upset candidate, has the traits to build a national presence, a powerful office, and the upside of being a fresh face; likely 5-10% in the polls)

Sen. Rand Paul of KY (controls KY, has strength in states that voted heavily for a Libertarian)

Sen. Ted Cruz of TX (controls TX, possibly controls evangelical-heavy states outside the Midwest)

Tier 4 (Wild Card outsider candidate, has unique traits to build a national presence, and being a fresh face; likely 5% in the polls):

None

Tier 5 (Has the qualities of the tier 3 candidates, but lacks the excitement that the tier 3 candidate or the wild card candidate can bring; likely 3 to 5% in the polls):

Sen. Jon Huntsman of UT (controls UT)

Sen. Susan Collins of ME (controls ME, possibly other New England states)

Fmr Gov. Susana Martinez of NM (controls NM)

Sen. Marco Rubio of FL (controls FL, possibly some strength in moderate-to-conservative states outside the Midwest)

Sen Tom Cotton of AR (controls AR)

Sen. Ben Sasse of NE (Controls NE)

Tier 6 (Has little national presence, holds a relatively weaker office, might not even win their state; likely 1% in the polls): 

None

Tier 7 (Has a little national presence, and has quality experience, but is neither a fresh face or has what it takes to be an upset candidate; likely 1% in the polls)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (possibly controls SC, with some strength in AZ, thanks to John McCain)

where pence?

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

In truth, I don't think a single Rep can be much more than VP. Their campaign strength is very limited. Sanders would never have gotten as much attention unless he was a Senator. I think one really has to be an incumbent or former president, incumbent or former VP, Sec of State, Gov or Fmr Gov, Sen or Fmr Sen. or a billionaire CEO, or possibly Speaker to really have a shot at the presidency. Reps (non-speakers) generally run to get more name recognition for a potential run at higher office. This isn't to say that a Rep wouldn't make a good president, but it is unlikely they can really come from behind to secure a nomination. 

fmr gov? harold stassen) and newsom cant be on there he may not win in 2018 is he even running yet?

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1 hour ago, Presidentinsertname said:

where pence?

Pence isn't going to run against Trump, even if Trump is impeached and his approval is at 20%. 

Newsom is Jerry Brown's successor, and has been for years. No way he doesn't become governor in a near one-party state. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Pence isn't going to run against Trump, even if Trump is impeached and his approval is at 20%. 

Newsom is Jerry Brown's successor, and has been for years. No way he doesn't become governor in a near one-party state. 

well what if trump dont run for a second term and newsom may not anything can happen. He could go for the senate for all we know.

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10 minutes ago, Presidentinsertname said:

well what if trump dont run for a second term and newsom may not anything can happen. He could go for the senate for all we know.

There is a chance Trump may not seek re-election for health issues. That was, in fact, the premise of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election in the timeline of events of my Fictional Future Scenario Series, if you recall?

 

15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Pence isn't going to run against Trump, even if Trump is impeached and his approval is at 20%. 

Newsom is Jerry Brown's successor, and has been for years. No way he doesn't become governor in a near one-party state. 

 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

Pence isn't going to run against Trump, even if Trump is impeached and his approval is at 20%. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Pence distanced himself from Trump if this happened though (maybe even to the point of not being on a Trump ticket for a 2nd time).

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14 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Pence distanced himself from Trump if this happened though (maybe even to the point of not being on a Trump ticket for a 2nd time).

I think Pence not staying on at VP is more likely than not, if Trump continues behaving the way that he has. I wouldn't be surprised if he seeks a Senate seat or something if one opens up before 2024. I think if Pence steps down, Trump will pick someone more similar to him, or at least a mainstream Republican that has pretty much accepted Trump and hasn't opposed him in public. If he chooses to go high profile, he selects another CEO or big name non-politician as VP, or he tries to take a GOP superstar like Rubio or Cruz. These two have been surprisingly supportive of Trump. 

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