Jump to content
270soft Forum

2016 Multi-Party US Election


Recommended Posts

I've started making a multi-party 2016 US Election for a hypothetical popular vote/2 round election. 

The parties and numbers for the parties are based primarily on primary totals, with some adjustments. 

Clinton and Sanders's parties are slightly stronger than the Republicans, because under this parliamentary system, and because of the number of candidates, the Republicans are more fragmented. However, in a Round 2 of voting, they will have a strong chance of victory, provided Trump, Cruz, etc, get past Clinton or Sanders. All the conservative parties exceed the support of the liberal parties. 

The liberal parties are not the only parties that benefit from this fragmentation, Libertarians are a viable party, with a lead in a few states, and McMullin's independent party controls Utah. 

Overall, Clinton, Sanders and Trump are all easily within securing the top two spots. Cruz has a solid outside chance, if two of the top 3 falter. Rubio, Johnson, and Kasich would probably only enter the top 2 if a human is controlling them. 

The parties included are (in order of national support):

Democrats, led by Hillary Clinton

Democratic Socialists, led by Bernie Sanders

Populists, led by Donald Trump

Conservatives, led by Ted Cruz

Republicans, led by Marco Rubio [His party controls Congress, despite low favorability]

Libertarians, led by Gary Johnson

Centrist Republicans, led by John Kasich

Green, led by Jill Stein

Independents, led by Evan McMullin

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, republicaninnyc said:

I'm looking forward to all those two-round campaigns ocne a sneak peek of it is available.(Then I may do Russia 1996)

I already have plans for Russia 1996. I even have a map with the Federal Subjects as they were divided at that time (they've been reorganized a few times since), flags for all the Federal Subjects, candidate portraits, party logos, and a decent starting list of issues and the candidates' platforms (some of which were educated guesses on some issues). It just got stalled quite a while ago because of lack of polling information that I could find.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Patine said:

I already have plans for Russia 1996. I even have a map with the Federal Subjects as they were divided at that time (they've been reorganized a few times since), flags for all the Federal Subjects, candidate portraits, party logos, and a decent starting list of issues and the candidates' platforms (some of which were educated guesses on some issues). It just got stalled quite a while ago because of lack of polling information that I could find.

Once I finish my Israel 1996 and a yet to be unveiled PMI project I'll probably get to work on it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, republicaninnyc said:

Once I finish my Israel 1996 and a yet to be unveiled PMI project I'll probably get to work on it.

As I pointed out, you may find hard polling information harder than you did for Israel 1996. I certainly couldn't find any good sources. I couldn't even find final results by Federal Subject for either the first or second round, only nation-wide results per party.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Patine said:

As I pointed out, you may find hard polling information harder than you did for Israel 1996. I certainly couldn't find any good sources. I couldn't even find final results by Federal Subject for either the first or second round, only nation-wide results per party.

I just hard-coded the values for Israel 1996 based on what I know about Israeli politics(I plan to update it to accurately reflect the starting dates). Parliamentary results may help you model it for Russia 1996.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, republicaninnyc said:

I just hard-coded the values for Israel 1996 based on what I know about Israeli politics(I plan to update it to accurately reflect the starting dates). Parliamentary results may help you model it for Russia 1996.

Possibly, but the 1995 State Duma elections had a bunch of parties who didn't put up a candidate in the 1996 Presidential election win seats, and two parties who did run in the Presidential election who had no seats in the State Duma, plus Yeltsin, who ultimately won, and four other candidates, were Independents (and Yeltsin, not having his own parliamentary party, unlike Putin, had to play the various parties against each other to get his legislative agendas through) and thus it would next to impossible to track their personal support by the 1995 parliamentary results.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Patine said:

Possibly, but the 1995 State Duma elections had a bunch of parties who didn't put up a candidate in the 1996 Presidential election win seats, and two parties who did run in the Presidential election who had no seats in the State Duma, plus Yeltsin, who ultimately won, and four other candidates, were Independents (and Yeltsin, not having his own parliamentary party, unlike Putin, had to play the various parties against each other to get his legislative agendas through) and thus it would next to impossible to track their personal support by the 1995 parliamentary results.

you russian scenario have regions finished??

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, victorraiders said:

you russian scenario have regions finished??

It has a map with the Federal Subjects at the time of the election, and the flags for the Federal Subjects, and they're populations at the time are online, but, I have no  polling information, or even real information on partisan or issues leaning tendencies by Federal Subject - I just can't find such information, and not for lack of trying.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Patine said:

It has a map with the Federal Subjects at the time of the election, and the flags for the Federal Subjects, and they're populations at the time are online, but, I have no  polling information, or even real information on partisan or issues leaning tendencies by Federal Subject - I just can't find such information, and not for lack of trying.

i sure about russian party platforms and republicanny asked for my creation scenario of russian,but for now i don't complete all regions

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, victorraiders said:

i sure about russian party platforms and republicanny asked for my creation scenario of russian,but for now i don't complete all regions

I myself have a version from quite a while ago with pretty much everything except polling, regional issue centres, starting campaign funds (having funds and costs in rubles leads to ridiculously high numbers), endorsers, and events. And, because it was a while ago, the format of the sitting scenario is obsolete, though it could potentially be mined for graphics and data.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I like this. Someone made a free for all a while ago but it didn't have the two round popular vote system, which would make this version a lot more interesting. (Theirs almost always went to Congress.)

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, vcczar said:

I've started making a multi-party 2016 US Election for a hypothetical popular vote/2 round election. 

The parties and numbers for the parties are based primarily on primary totals, with some adjustments. 

Clinton and Sanders's parties are slightly stronger than the Republicans, because under this parliamentary system, and because of the number of candidates, the Republicans are more fragmented. However, in a Round 2 of voting, they will have a strong chance of victory, provided Trump, Cruz, etc, get past Clinton or Sanders. All the conservative parties exceed the support of the liberal parties. 

The liberal parties are not the only parties that benefit from this fragmentation, Libertarians are a viable party, with a lead in a few states, and McMullin's independent party controls Utah. 

Overall, Clinton, Sanders and Trump are all easily within securing the top two spots. Cruz has a solid outside chance, if two of the top 3 falter. Rubio, Johnson, and Kasich would probably only enter the top 2 if a human is controlling them. 

The parties included are (in order of national support):

Democrats, led by Hillary Clinton

Democratic Socialists, led by Bernie Sanders

Populists, led by Donald Trump

Conservatives, led by Ted Cruz

Republicans, led by Marco Rubio [His party controls Congress, despite low favorability]

Libertarians, led by Gary Johnson

Centrist Republicans, led by John Kasich

Green, led by Jill Stein

Independents, led by Evan McMullin

 

 

 

I am currently working on a map where each Congressional District has roughly 300k constiuants; could serve as a ground work for a parlimentary style game.

 

Also another party you can add- though might overlap with Populist- is "Conservative Democrats/Blue Dogs" like Joe Manchin and Jon Tester. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Patine said:

I myself have a version from quite a while ago with pretty much everything except polling, regional issue centres, starting campaign funds (having funds and costs in rubles leads to ridiculously high numbers), endorsers, and events. And, because it was a while ago, the format of the sitting scenario is obsolete, though it could potentially be mined for graphics and data.

upload in one site for my view this scenario

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...