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2020 Election Candidate Strength


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For my 2020 election, I'm trying to gather various opinions on candidate strengths in each state. I have already updated and set polls, but want to get second opinions. If you have the time and desire, please answer the following questions. 

Who is likely to have more support in July 2019 during the primary polls in the following states? Please do not select people that you hope or want to be winning in the polls at the time. Select only those that you think are more likely to be winning in the polls, regardless of whether or not you like the candidate. 

1. Alabama

Dem: Booker, Warren, Clinton, Biden, or Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, or Cruz

2. Arizona

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Julian Castro

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Susana Martinez

3. Alaska

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins, Rand Paul

4. Arkansas

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Tom Cotton

5. California

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Eric Garcetti, Jim Steyer

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins, Susana Martinez, Marco Rubio

6. Colorado

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul, Jon Huntsman

7. Connecticut

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins

8. Delaware 

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, O'Malley, McAuliffe

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

9. Florida

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Alan Grayson

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio

10. Georgia

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Lindsey Graham

11. Hawaii

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio

12. Idaho

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Steve Bullock, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

13. Illinois

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio

14. Indiana

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Peter Buttigieg, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

15. Iowa

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Steve Bullock, Terry McAuliffe, Al Franken, Kirstin Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Rand Paul

16. Kansas

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Ben Sasse

17. Kentucky

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Sherrod Brown

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

18. Louisiana

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, John Bel Edwards 

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Tom Cotton

19. Maine

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Susan Collins

20. Maryland

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Terry McAuliffe, Martin O'Malley

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham

21. Massachusetts

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Seth Moulton, Cuomo, Gillibrand

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins

22. Michigan

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Al Franken, Sherrod Brown

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

23. Minnesota 

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Amy Klobuchar

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio

24. Mississippi 

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

25. Missouri

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Tom Cotton, Ben Sasse

26. Montana

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump. Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul, Jon Huntsman

27. Nebraska

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Ben Sasse

28. Nevada

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Kamala Harris, Martin Heinrich, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul, Jon Huntsman, Susana Martinez

29. New Hampshire

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Terry McAuliffe, Booker, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Tulsi Gabbard, Sherrod Brown

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Jon Huntsman, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham

30. New Jersey

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Al Franken, Cuomo, Gillibrand

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

31. New Mexico

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Julian Castro, Martin Heinrich

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susana Martinez

32. New York

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio

33. North Carolina

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Terry McAuliffe

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Lindsey Graham

34. North Dakota

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

35. Ohio

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Sherrod Brown, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

36. Oklahoma

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

37. Oregon

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Jeff Merkley, Howard Schultz, Tulsi Gabbard

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul, 

38. Pennsylvania

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Booker, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Terry McAuliffe

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

39. Rhode Island

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Cuomo, Gillibrand, Lincoln Chafee, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins

40. South Carolina

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Terry McAuliffe

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Lindsey Graham

41. South Dakota

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

42. Tennessee

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Sherrod Brown

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

43. Texas

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Julian Castro

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susana Martinez

44. Utah

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Jon Huntsman

45. Vermont

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins

46. Virginia

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Terry McAuliffe

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Rubio

47. Washington

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker, Jeff Merkley, Al Franken, Howard Schultz

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Susan Collins

48. West Virginia

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Terry McAuliffe

Rep: Trump. Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

49. Wisconsin

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Al Franken

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

50. Wyoming

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Steve Bullock

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rand Paul

51. Washington DC

Dem: Biden, Warren, Clinton, Sanders, Booker

Rep: Trump, Kasich, Cruz

 

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I'll give some suggestions for the Republicans because I know them better.

1. Trump would probably still have high levels of support.  Cruz would be next, and Kasich would be a lot lower.

2. This depends on how well Trump deals with the immigration issue;  If he kept his promises, then he would probably have a similar level of support as 2016.  If not, some of his support would probably go to Cruz.  Martinez and Kasich would split the more moderate voter base.  Martinez would probably be a little higher than Kasich because of her appeal to the Hispanic population.  Graham would probably be in mid to low single digits.

3. Cruz and Rand would be at the top for Alaska.  I would lean towards Cruz because he won it in 2016, but it wouldn't be much of a lean.

4. Cotton is relatively popular in Arkansas and would probably lead in the polls.  Cruz and Trump would be fighting for 2nd.

5. This is more difficult because there isn't much of a 2016 precedent.  I would think that Rubio would be the most popular.

6. Rand would probably be in the lead in Colorado while Cruz would be in 2nd.

7. Trump followed by Kasich and Collins

8. Trump with Kasich and Cruz pretty far back and close to each other.

9. If Trump was vulnerable enough to be primaried, Rubio would probably be ahead.  Trump and Cruz would be fighting for second.

10. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio fighting for the top spot.  Kasich further behind.  Graham in the mid-low single digits.

I'll do it in increments of 10.

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