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2020 US Scenario Update


2020 Scenario Candidates  

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  1. 1. Of the following Democrats in my scenario, who would you most likely vote for in the primary if forced to vote for one of them?

    • Sen. Elizabeth Warren of MA
    • Sen. Cory Booker of NJ
    • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of NY
    • Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT
    • Fmr VP. Joe Biden of DE
    • Fmr Sec. Hillary Clinton of NY
    • Sen. Al Franken of MN
    • Gov. Andrew Cuomo of NY
    • Sen. Kamala Harris of CA
    • Sen. Sherrod Brown of OH
    • Gov. Gavin Newsom of CA
    • Fmr CEO Howard Schultz of WA
    • Gov. Terry McAuliffe of VA
    • Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley of MD
    • Sen. Martin Heinrich of NM
    • Fmr Sec. Julian Castro of TX
    • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of HI
    • Fmr Rep. Alan Grayson of FL
    • Mayor Pete Buttigieg of IN
  2. 2. Of the following Republicans in my scenario, who would you most likely vote for in the primary if forced to vote for one of them?

    • Pres. Donald Trump of NY (FL?)
    • Sen. Lindsey Graham of SC
    • Sen. Rand Paul of KY
    • Fmr Gov. John Kasich of OH
    • Sen. Marco Rubio of FL
    • Fmr Gov. Susana Martinez of NM
    • Sen. Ted Cruz of TX
    • Sen. Jon Huntsman of UT
    • Sen. Tom Cotton of AR
    • Sen. Ben Sasse of NE
    • Sen. Susan Collins of ME
  3. 3. Would you most likely vote for your preferred Republican or Democrat from the previous two questions?

    • I'd vote for my preferred Democrat
    • I'd vote for my preferred Republican

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I've made some updates to by 2020 scenario. 

1) Added several Democrats -- Andrew Cuomo, Terry McAuliffe, Bernie Sanders. 

2) I've altered the Democratic primary %, primarily decreasing Cory Booker and Sherrod Brown, which makes Elizabeth Warren more of a front-runner. 

3) Increased undecided voters in the primary from 20% to 40%. This is based on current polls desiring "Other" or "Undecided" over likely/possible candidates. As this scenario assumes Trump's presidency will be viewed unfavorably, even by many Republicans, I have made their undecided voters also at 40%, which should allow an insurgent campaign by Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz or John Kasich a little more hope. 

I still have not updated the events. 

I may make some changes to the issues. 

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Update: I've updated the Dem and Rep % for the general election map. When all the candidates are on, the map is now 217 to 215 (Dem adv) with the rest of the states as toss-ups. Dems also lead with 3 million votes in the popular vote, which amounts to about 1.5% lead in the polls. 

Trump and Kasich are the only ON Reps

I've switched up the ON Dems. I won't announce them, because I'm planning on probably redoing who I have ON and who I have OFF. I also think I've made Bernie Sanders too weak for the start date that he's on. I will probably add some more Democrats, including Lincoln Chafee, who says he's considering running again. 

I am also planning on having multiple start dates, including a very early start date--Perhaps July 2019, Oct 2019, Dec 2019 and Jan 2020. Each will have different start % for the candidates, based on how I see their support going. Naturally, high profile candidates with national recognition will start high, while change candidates and candidates charismatic to their party base will increase over time. By January, frontrunners will have taken a lot of attacks, causing the lead pollster of Dec to possibly drop or get within striking distance. Iowa and New Hampshire may be a weak area for the front runners. 

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While I'm closer to Susan Collins' positions I prefer Marco Rubio personally, having met him and attended one of his rallies. I'm not a fan of any of the Democrats, but I put Heinrich because he seems like the closest to a moderate as far as I'm aware.

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Any plans to add Amy Klobuchar? She's been floated as a potential candidate as well. I know there's only so many of the dozens of "potential" candidates that can be included. However, she seems pretty likely!


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