Jump to content
270soft Forum

I'm making a 1992 scenario


Recommended Posts

One thing that I use sometimes when trying to gauge the polling data for a region when there's a long break between polls (or no polls at all) is this:

Let's say in Fictional State, Bush got 40%, Clinton 30%, Perot 30%. Those were the results on election day and the region was never polled. If the national polling on election day was 40% Bush 40% Clinton 20% Perot, but when the scenario starts in September, the national polling was 35% Bush 35% Clinton and 30% Perot, I adjust the state results by the change. Between September and November, hypothetical Perot lost 10 points while Bush and Clinton gained 5. So the fictional state would overstate Perot's performance by 10 points, Bush and Clinton's percentages would both be 5 lower. ThereforeĀ  Bush 35, Clinton 25, Perot 40.

Sorry if I explained that poorly. If you need clarification feel free to ask.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Create New...