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2016 with primaries as Illuminati (spectator), detailed


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Technical notes: I will be using Jonathan Kudelka's latest scenario and I will be playing as Illuminati. Despite my Illuminati powers, I won't be using them to influence the election because, plot twist! I already did from the get go by choosing the candidates :D It'll be interesting to see what the AI will do and which states will be heavily contested. The last time I did this it was a quick one between Trump and Clinton and Hillary lost everywhere but Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Another technical note: I will remember to save all the time and if I don't get the dreaded error message and actually make it to Election Night, I will also make an election night timeline using graphics that I will make if there's enough demand for it, though I will still post the final in-game electoral map and key results afterwards. I will disclose all technicalities before election night but I will not alter the results. Election night timeline, if requested, will be provided by The Illuminati's very own news network: FXCNNBC News. 

Anyway, I will start on December 31st and here are the candidates that I picked, as I was advised by the top Illuminati:

GOP:
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Rand Paul (Undecided)
Chris Christie (Undecided)
Mike Huckabee (Undecided)
Carly Fiorina (Undecided)
John Kasich
Rick Santorum (Undecided)

Democratic:
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Al Gore (Undecided)
Joe Biden (Undecided)
Michelle Obama (Undecided)

Libertarian:
Gary Johnson
Austin Petersen
John McAfee
Darryl Perry

Green:
Jill Stein
Bill Kreml

Independent:
Evan McMullin (undecided)

And of course, yours truly: The Illuminati.

May the odds be ever in your favor! 

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(Note: If you want to see any detail, perhaps a candidate's platform or theme or anything that I'm not showing you, just let me know.)

 

Happy New Year, y'all! This is Not Illuminati, FXCNNBC's political analyst. Let us end 2015 by presenting our latest maps based on polls taken in the past week. 

In our electoral college ratings map, the Democrats are up by 1% in national polls while Republicans are projected to win the Electoral College if the Presidential Election was held today. 

Dec 31 Gen.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Among the Republican candidates, Donald Trump seems to be the current favorite. We will see how long that's going to hold.

Dec 31 GOP.PNG

Among the Dems, Hillary Clinton seems to be the favorite but Bernie Sanders isn't far behind. Who will prevail? (I see you Wisconsin and Utah. What are you up to??)

Dec 31 Dem.PNG

And finally, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein seem to be the favorites in the Libertarian and Green parties, respectively. There's no word yet if Evan McMullin is going to run in the general election, but concerned Republicans and Democrats alike can only hope. I'm your political analyst Mordechai, totally Not Illuminati, and that's it for today. Back to you, Rachel Megyn!

Rachel Megyn: Thanks, Mo! And now Miley Cyrus...  

 

 

 

 

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January 1st - 7th partisan news bits! (Inspired by this year's very toxic headlines, rephrased from the game's actual news stories. Not all news stories are shown. This is also probably going to be the most news I'd post here as I won't really focus much on that except when scandals and interesting things happen.)

1/1/2016 

Gore Puts Forward Vision For Income Taxes On The Middle Class. Is it gonna blow up in his face like his 2000 attempt to be POTUS?
Does John Kasich have a backbone on religious issues? Noisy protesters say otherwise! 

1/2/16
John Kasich talks Military Policies on The Kelly File, Rand Paul talks Religion and Government on Fox Business!
Ted Cruz is making gains in polls nationwide!
*loud gasps from the right*HILLARY CLINTON ENDORSED BY SOROS! 
Jeb Bush (literally??) hits Trump on campaign trail! 

1/3
Mike Huckabee apparently has a vision for leadership! (according to him, at least)

1/4
DONALD TRUMP CALLS JEB BUSH A WASTE!
Huckabee looks uncomfortable on Good Morning America--DOESN'T KNOW WHAT THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IS!
Jeb Bush's campaign is falling apart, weeks before Iowa!

1/5
Ted Cruz to working class Americans: unions suck! Speech backfires, backlash ensues! 
Michelle Obama talks about pensions in her first ever public appearance this year!

1/6
Michelle Obama to Veterans: I will cut military spending. Speech backfires, backlash ensues!
Noisy protesters who really hate Rubio interrupt his event!

1/7
SCANDAL: Daryl Perry hates Israel? EXCLUSIVE ON FXCNNBC! 
Which side is FLOTUS on? Terrorism speech backfires!
Chris Christie brags about his position on the War on Drugs, promises to block bridges to cut interstate drug routes!
Ted Cruz hits Trump's lack of issue familiarity! Trump to Cruz: Uh, what is familiarity? Stop using big words! 

I will post Crystal Ball ratings and latest polls soon as it's way past my bedtime. Illuminati members need sleep, too! 
 

 

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8 hours ago, Mordechai said:

January 1st - 7th partisan news bits! (Inspired by this year's very toxic headlines, rephrased from the game's actual news stories. Not all news stories are shown. This is also probably going to be the most news I'd post here as I won't really focus much on that except when scandals and interesting things happen.)

1/1/2016

Gore Puts Forward Vision For Income Taxes On The Middle Class. Is it gonna blow up in his face like his 2000 attempt to be POTUS?
Does John Kasich have a backbone on religious issues? Noisy protesters say otherwise!

1/2/16
John Kasich talks Military Policies on The Kelly File, Rand Paul talks Religion and Government on Fox Business!
Ted Cruz is making gains in polls nationwide!
*loud gasps from the right*HILLARY CLINTON ENDORSED BY SOROS! 
Jeb Bush (literally??) hits Trump on campaign trail!

1/3
Mike Huckabee apparently has a vision for leadership! (according to him, at least)

1/4
DONALD TRUMP CALLS JEB BUSH A WASTE!
Huckabee looks uncomfortable on Good Morning America--DOESN'T KNOW WHAT THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IS!
Jeb Bush's campaign is falling apart, weeks before Iowa!

1/5
Ted Cruz to working class Americans: unions suck! Speech backfires, backlash ensues! 
Michelle Obama talks about pensions in her first ever public appearance this year!

1/6
Michelle Obama to Veterans: I will cut military spending. Speech backfires, backlash ensues!
Noisy protesters who really hate Rubio interrupt his event!

1/7
SCANDAL: Daryl Perry hates Israel? EXCLUSIVE ON FXCNNBC! 
Which side is FLOTUS on? Terrorism speech backfires!
Chris Christie brags about his position on the War on Drugs, promises to block bridges to cut interstate drug routes!
Ted Cruz hits Trump's lack of issue familiarity! Trump to Cruz: Uh, what is familiarity? Stop using big words!

I will post Crystal Ball ratings and latest polls soon as it's way past my bedtime. Illuminati members need sleep, too! 
 

 

The Illuminati doesn't openly run in elections under it's own name and banner. That defeats the whole idea... :P

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Hello, I am FXCNNBC's political analyst and we will review notable pundits' predictions! 

If the general election was held today, it'll be an easy win for any Republican! Is this the year that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two blue states that have been targeted by Republicans for over a decade, go red? But wait! Is Georgia a toss up this year? It is, of course, too early to call like we say on election night. 

jan 7 general.PNG

In the GOP primaries, Trump is still the favorite but Cruz is about to catch up.

jan 7 gop.PNG\

In the Democratic primaries, it is still Clinton's game but some Democrats are urging former Vice President and 2000 Presidential loser, Al Gore, to run. He is, of course, in Florida still looking for those missing ballots and cannot be reached for comments.

/Country roads.. take me home... to the place... I belong ~~~ West Virginia! Sanders, momma! Take me home... country roads/

jan 7 dem.PNG

In the minor parties, Johnson and Stein are still the favorites but who really cares about them, right?

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And now, let's see what Professor Sabato's Crystal Ball says! 

In the Dem primaries, it isn't a surprise that he projects that Clinton will get the nomination but Michelle Obama isn't far behind, that's if she decided to run.

Sabato 1-7 Dem.PNG

 

In the GOP, it is Ted Cruz who is in the lead, but Trump isn't far behind either! Will Teddy hold onto his momentum?

Sabato 1-7 GOP.PNG

In the Libertarian Party, Johnson is unsurprisingly in the lead, but Peterson is not far behind either. 

  Sabato 1-7 lib.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And in the Green primaries, does this even need to be said? It's Jill Stein, of course. 

And now, with 7 days before the GOP debates, let's see how this week is going to turn out! 

1/8 to 1/15

SCANDAL!!! Tape of Trump saying that he wants to nuke the entire continent of Asia released! 
Trump calls Jeb Bush a mess! Trump really hates Jeb!
Bernie Sanders closing wide gap with Hillary Clinton! 
FLOTUS out of touch? Michelle Obama's speech on social welfare backfires! 

POLLS: MICHIGAN AND NEVADA NOW RED! Democrats in the lead again in New Hampshire and Florida! Polls suggest that Arizona and Texas could be in play! 

Ted Cruz has a comfortable lead in Iowa! In the Dem IA caucus, it is tight but Sanders is in the lead! Nationally, Sanders maintains a 4-point lead over Clinton! 

Debates for both the GOP and the Dems are scheduled next week! 

 

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And the debates are done! 

And the winners are  *drumrolls*
*fanfare*
CARLY FIORINA AND HILLARY CLINTON! GIRL POWER! 

Also, it's worth noting that no attacks were made in the Democratic debate! The GOP, on the other hand...

DNC Debate 1.PNGGOP Deb 1.PNG

And it is time to make a projection for Iowa! 

GOP - Ted Cruz, with an 85% chance of winning
Dem - Bernie Sanders, with a 55% chance of winning
Libertarian - Petersen, with a 95% chance of winning
Green - Jill Stein, with a 99% chance of winning

Up next will be another GOP debate and then the Iowa caucuses. Stay tuned! And here's are mini pictures of all the latest polls taken, with the Liberatrian polls included because of  some pretty interesting developments in IA and NH:

Jan 21 General.PNGJan 21 GOP.PNG

Jan 21 DNC.PNGJan 21 LP.PNG

 

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2nd GOP debate and the Iowa caucuses! 

No newsworthy event took place in the past week so we move forward to the second GOP debate and the IA CAUCUSES! 

But first, let's update my projections! 

IA GOP - Ted Cruz, 95% chance
IA Dem - Bernie Sanders, 80% chance
IA Lib - Petersen, down to 60% chance
IA Green - Jill Stein, >99% chance

And now, to the GOP Debate! 

*drumrolls*
*applause*
*boos*

IT'S A TIE BETWEEN TED CRUZ AND MARCO RUBIO WHILE DONALD TRUMP GOT TOTALLY SWAMPED!

debate 2 GOP.PNG

And while waiting for the results from IA, let's review the news stream first! 

TRUMP SCANDAL!! DONALD TRUMP IMPLICATED IN HILLARY CLINTON'S EMAILS! That's according to an undisclosed source and it's making rounds all over the country! And then in New Hampshire, Jeb Bush was so boring he asked his audience to clap for him! Really, Jeb?? 

And... 

Rachel Megyn: Let me interrupt you there as we do have a call and a characterization from Iowa! 

We are calling the GOP IA Caucus for Ted Cruz! Just a reminder that we're just projecting the winner and not necessarily their delegate counts yet. IA GOP CRUZ.png

While we do have a projected winner in the GOP Caucus, the Democratic caucus is surprisingly too close to call and Bernie Sanders is currently in the lead by just 13 votes! Interestingly, Hillary Clinton is currently in the last place. 

IA DEM CLOSE.png

And that's all from me!

*camera pans away from Rachel*

Thanks for that and it is indeed quite a surprise that the Dem Caucus in Iowa is too close to call as Bernie Sanders had a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton in the polls. Whether or not this is a sign that Martin O'Malley is gaining grounds is of course too early to call, but it seems that we need to wait for all of the votes to come in before we can make a call in Iowa. 

And that's it for today! Tune in next for Keeping Up With The Martians! 

*checks Nate Silver's website*
Iowa chances of winning:
GOP: Ted Cruz, 100%

Dem: Bernie Sanders, 40%; Martin O'Malley, 40%; Hillary Clinton, 20% 

 

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Oh, and a small bonus...

 

they're aware! 

 

they know.PNG

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Cool story. :)

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Thanks, everyone! Your support for the ilerminaty keeps us in power! 

 

4 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

How did you make those graphics, they are really cool!

I just did them in MS Powerpoint and then screen capped the slide. 

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IA Caucuses Final Results

While waiting for the final results to come out of Iowa, let's review what we expect this week! First, each major party is having a debate this week. And of course, the NH primaries are also this week! Speaking of, let's make some predictions for New Hampshire.

GOP - Kasich leads Rubio, 24.3-17, with 5% undecided. We will give Kasich a 70% chance of winning.
Dem - Sanders barely leads Clinton, 32.2-30.3 with 10% undecided and Clinton has the mo'! If that momentum holds, then we'll give Clinton 55% and Sanders, 40%. 5% says it's neither of them. 
 
And I just got a notification that we do have an apparent winner in the IA Dem Caucuses. Martin O'Malley is the apparent winner in Iowa! IA DEM WIN.png
 
And here are the final results and their IA delegate counts! 
GOP:
IA GOP.PNG
 
And then Dem:
IA DEM.PNG
 
Stay tuned as we cover the debates and of course the NH Primaries! 
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Hello, hello, hello and another week has passed! This is FXCNNBC reporting on the Democratic debate! Who will prevail? 

*applause*
*boos*
*water balloon fight*

And the winner is... MARTIN O'MALLEY! Damn hot papa you're on a streak! And also, watch your mouth, Hillary! You, potty, potty, potty mouth, Hillary! 

debate 2 dem.PNG

And now, the GOP debate! Ugh, how many debates do we have to go through?? Anyway...

*applause*
*boos*
*MARCO RUBIO REPEATS SELF*
*pillow fight*

And the winner is.... what? MARCO RUBIO? Well, I guess repeating himself didn't really affect his performance that much! Give Mr. Rubio a round of applause! I'm sorry Ben Carson, you can't just debate with yourself. Try debating with other people next time, ok? 

And I swear if Rubio and O'Malley get nominated it's gonna be a battle of the hunks! 

debate 3 gop.PNG

And we do have results trickling in from New Hampshire! Let's see what we have...

GOP Primary? Too early to call! Note the distinction: too early means we just don't have enough information and it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be close. And would you look at that, Kasich is in the lead! Hopefully, I got this one correctly again. 

nh gop early.png

And we also got some numbers from the Dem Primary! Right now Hillary Clinton, who got a 55% chance of winning in our latest model, is barely leading and Bernie Sanders is in third place. I predicted the Dem Caucuses in IA wrong so please, please, please, New Hampshire, let me be right! But right now, it is too close to call.

 nh dem close.png

Tune in as we review polls from Nevada and South Carolina, and possibly update our NH results! 

Until then! 

 

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NH PRIMARIES, SC AND NV POLLS, UPCOMING DEBATES! 

 

Although the GOP Primary in SC and Dem caucuses in NV are 9 days away, let's take a look at what polls are telling us! 

In Nevada, O'Malley is ahead of Clinton by just over a point, and there's still a lot of undecided voters. However, both candidates have equal momentum while Sanders has a negative one. If things remain constant, O'Malley has a 55% chance of winning, Hillary 40%, and Sanders 5%.

dem nv polls.png

In South Carolina, Rubio is leading by over 10 points although he is losing momentum. Because of that, he only has a 60% chance of winning in our models. 

gop sc polls.png

And also, like we haven't had enough, both parties are again holding debates this week. *sighs* And oh, before I forget, New Hampshire! We have a projection in NH! We're projecting that John Kasich will win the GOP Primary in New Hampshire. Not a big surprise and our models predicted that earlier on.

nh gop win.png

Meanwhile, the Democratic Primary in NH is still too close to call with over half of the votes in. Hillary Clinton is still in the lead but Martin O'Malley is beginning to close the gap. Hopefully, we're able to find out what's up soon. 

nh dem close 2.png

And that's it for now, tune in next for NH's final results, some more debates, and possibly even SC and NV! And coming up next: The Oprah DeGeneres Show! 

---fivethirtyeight live updates---

Chances of winning NH:

GOP - John Kasich - 100%
Dem - O'Malley 50%, Clinton 48%, Sanders 2%

 

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NH FINAL RESULTS, GOP/DEM DEBATES, SC and NV FORECASTS

*opening music*

Hello everyone and we have two debates to cover! Who will prevail and who will crash? Well, we will find out! But before anything else, FXCNNBC News does have an apparent winner in the NH Democratic Primary. We project that after all the votes are counted, Martin O'Malley will win in New Hampshire barring any protest from either the Clinton or the Sanders camp. Another upset win by Martin O'Malley and oh, I don't really know how to forecast elections anymore!

 nh dem win.png

And here are their final delegate counts: (click to enlarge)

nh dem.PNGnh gop.PNG

And now, the debates! 

*drumrolls* 
*boos*
*cheers*
*water bottle throwing*

HILLARY CLINTON DOMINATED THE DEM DEBATE! AND MARCO RUBIO IS NOW A MASTER DEBATER AFTER  WINNING THREE TIMES IN A ROW!

Meanwhile, Donald Trump had a debate meltdown! (Click to enlarge)

debate 4 gop.PNGdebate 3 dem.PNG

Stay tuned and we will review our latest polls and forecasts for NV and SC, and perhaps we'll get a result out of at least one of those states shortly. 

 

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Hello and now we will look at five different polls.

First is the national poll taken on February 18th. As you can see, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are slowly going back to their blue wall status while Arizona is now trending blue. This is definitely NOT good news for Republicans. And will we finally see some action in Mississippi after so many years? 

feb 18 general.PNG

Moving on to our GOP polls in South Carolina! Rubio is currently in the lead over Carson but Carson is slowly closing the gap with his momentum. 
Chances of winning: Rubio - 55%, Carson - 40%

gop sc polls final.PNG

In our Democratic polls in Nevada, O'Malley is leading Clinton by just a point while Sanders is far behind. Both of them have equal ground game and momentum.
Chances: O'Malley - 55%, Clinton - 40%. This will be of course very good for O'Malley if he manages to win three states in a row.

dem nv polls final.PNG

In the Democratic polls out of South Carolina, however, Clinton remains to be a favorite not just in SC but also all over the south. 
Chances of winning - Clinton, 90%

Dem sc polls 1.PNG

And lastly, here's our GOP polls out of Nevada. It is very close and uh...Fiorina seems to be ahead? Well then, let's give her a 50% chance of winning this because I doubt that she will. 

GOP nv polls final.PNG

And that's about it. We will see you next week to cover Nevada and South Carolina! 

 

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BREAKING NEWS! SC AND NV!

I'm sorry for interrupting your reality TV show but we have important news out of South Carolina and Nevada. In the Nevada Democratic Caucuses, we can now project that Martin O'Malley has won his third state in a row. Nevada, O'Malley! 

nv dem win.png

While in the GOP Primary in South Carolina? It is TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Our models predicted that Marco Rubio will win this but right now Ben Carson is leading by just over 13,000 votes with 50% of the votes in. 

sc gop close.png

Next time on FXCNNBC news: 

A potential nominee has dropped out. Who is it?
Final tally of the Dem Caucuses in Nevada and the GOP Primary in South Carolina.

Some results from the GOP Caucuses in Nevada.
And TONS of pre-Super Tuesday updates. 

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Just a random note from me:

As much as I wanna stay true to this year's election cycle, recounts and faithless electors will not be included! I could add those after everything's done as a "what if" scenario, though, but not in my main play by play. 

Back to my sleep. 

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Good evening America! Before we begin, I just wanna announce that we now have a call for the GOP primary in South Carolina. We're projecting that Marco Rubio will win the GOP primary in South Carolina and all of its fifty delegates once all of the votes are in. It took us a bit longer but our models did predict that he will indeed win South Carolina.

sc gop win.png

And here are the final tallies of both the Democratic Caucuses in Nevada and the GOP Primary in South Carolina:

nv dem.PNGsc gop.PNG

If my math is correct, O'Malley and Rubio are currently in the lead in their respective tallies but we still have more to go. 

Also, I'd like to report that we do have news from the Democratic side of the isle. Michelle Obama is not running after all, and she can be quoted saying that she does not feel comfortable pursuing a career in politics at this time. She did not endorse anyone and wished everybody a good luck.nv gop early.png

Oh, what's this? Results from Nevada! Well, currently we only have 1% of the votes in and it is too early to call but it looks like from that small number of votes, Fiorina and Cruz are in the lead. We will update you on that shortly and after the break, we will show some Democratic polls from SC and TONS of polls for Super Tuesday. Better get the popcorn ready because it will be a lot. 

 

 

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And now, let's review pre-election polls in all of the states that will be holding their caucuses and primaries next week! We will start with the Democratic polls in South Carolina.

SC DEM, Clinton 90%

sc dem polls.PNG

AL DEM, Clinton >99%, GOP, Trump 80% 

al dem polls.PNGal gop polls.PNGal gop momentum.PNG

MA DEM, Clinton 70%, GOP, Kasich 55%

ma dem polls.PNGma gop poll.PNGma gop mom.PNG

We are closely watching the GOP race here because Trump and Carson could pull a potential upset. 

MN DEM, Clinton 60%, GOP, Trump 70%

mn dem poll.PNGmn dem mo.PNGmn gop poll.PNGmn gop mo.PNG

Though Clinton and Trump are in the lead in Minnesota, Sanders and Carson are beating them in the momentum game. In fact, Clinton is losing momentum. We're confident that Clinton and Trump can hold on to their lead but we will be watching Minnesota closely.  

OK DEM, Clinton 90%, GOP Trump 80%

ok dem poll.PNGok gop poll.PNG

Though their leads aren't impressive, we believe that their momentum is enough to win in Oklahoma. 

 

 

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And before I continue looking at the polls, we have something important out of Nevada. 

NV GOP WIN.png

FXCNNBC projects that Ben Carson will win in Nevada. Once again, the polls failed us! Final results:

nv gop.PNG

Anyway, back to our polls and predictions. Hopefully none of these will fail us this week.

TN D - Clinton, 90% R- Cruz, >99% 
tn dem poll.PNGtn r poll.PNG'

Clinton has enough momentum while Sanders actually has negative momentum in Tennessee so we believe there won't be any surprises here. Cruz? Uh, just look at that margin.

TX D- Clinton, 98%, R - Cruz, 95%

tx d poll.PNGtx r poll.PNG

VT D - Clinton, 60%, R - Trump, 80%

vt d poll.PNGvt r poll.PNG

Would you look at that? Clinton may steal Sanders' home state away from him but due to the number of undecided voters and the fact that it's Sanders' home state, we are not quite confident that Clinton can keep her lead in Vermont.

VA D - Clinton, >99%, R - Trump, 55%

va d poll.PNGva r poll.PNGva r mo.PNG

AR D - Clinton >99%, R - Rubio 90%

ar d poll.PNGar r poll.PNG

GA D - Clinton, 80%, Cruz 95%

ga d poll.PNGga g poll.PNG

CO - D - Toss up, Clinton/O'Malley, R -Trump >99%

co d poll.PNGco d mo.PNGco r poll.PNG

GOP
WY - Trump 80%, AK - Cruz >99%

wy r poll.PNGak r poll.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

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And I have returned from an urgent illuminati meeting and I'm not allowed to say what we talked about, of course, but anyway, I was told to show you pre-Super Tuesday general election polls to distract you!

national, before super tues.PNG

As y'all can see, Montana and Indiana are now back to their 2008 toss-up-piness (????? i just invented a word) while Arizona is actually trending blue! Well, it is of course too soon to tell but the map might change this year. And oh, by the way, the polls in the South Carolina Democratic Primary have closed earlier and it's gotten interesting. I will go over to the board to see what the heck is goin on.

sc close.png

Ok, as you can see, 70% of all votes have come in and Martin O'Malley is in the lead! What is going on? Is he cheatin' or are the polls lyin' or what? Our last polls out of South Carolina gave Martin O'Malley a mere 8% and now he got 40%??? Oh my god this hot poppa is gonna break our prediction models!

*walks out* 

 

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(thank god I didn't pursue statistics in real life) 

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