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2020 Election 2.0 is now up!


vcczar
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@CalebsParadox

Comment on this new thread. In response to your comment in the old thread, the update shouldn't feel any more rushed than the 1st version seems. I plan to keep updating this until Anthony makes an official scenario for 2020. 

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I have simulated this three times, and I was pleased with the results. I took screenshots of after the conventions and the final results for the third simulation. 

One thing that I noticed was that Trump seems to be stronger, though I may have just not encountered a powerful Trump. The Democratic convention has still been brokered each time, but the actual primary have been competitive with Warren-Booker leading the pack typically (Harris, Brown, and even Schultz made their way up there at times! Though, it is far less likely than before which is great.)

I think that once you fully flesh out the Democrats, the negative momentum from the events should even out the general election a bit, as I've noticed that the Trump hits hurt the Republicans in the general election. It's a great update and an improvement over the last version, thank you for this! I'll attempt a play by play soon!

Oddities:

Tennessee was won by 7%. 
Texas was a battleground and only won by 5%.
Montana was won by 6%.
 

1.png

2.png

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12 hours ago, CalebsParadox said:

I have simulated this three times, and I was pleased with the results. I took screenshots of after the conventions and the final results for the third simulation. 

One thing that I noticed was that Trump seems to be stronger, though I may have just not encountered a powerful Trump. The Democratic convention has still been brokered each time, but the actual primary have been competitive with Warren-Booker leading the pack typically (Harris, Brown, and even Schultz made their way up there at times! Though, it is far less likely than before which is great.)

I think that once you fully flesh out the Democrats, the negative momentum from the events should even out the general election a bit, as I've noticed that the Trump hits hurt the Republicans in the general election. It's a great update and an improvement over the last version, thank you for this! I'll attempt a play by play soon!

Oddities:

Tennessee was won by 7%. 
Texas was a battleground and only won by 5%.
Montana was won by 6%.
 

1.png

2.png

Strange. I don't know what to do about TN changing blue so often. It's programmed to heavily favor Republicans. 

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6 hours ago, vcczar said:

Strange. I don't know what to do about TN changing blue so often. It's programmed to heavily favor Republicans.

It was apparently a big political shock and scare in 1952 when Tennessee went REPUBLICAN for the first time since Reconstruction... :P

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Update: I've now added events for both parties up to the Convention. 

General Election events will be less candidate specific; although, each candidate will have about two events geared towards them, with Trump having slightly more than others. 

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18 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

Who do you consider the "canon" nominees/vice presidential nominees, as well as the canon results?

I'm not sure yet. I'll probably figure that out once I complete all of the events. 

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Here's my first playthrough (as the Simulator party) since posting version 2. The election result was shockingly similar to 2016. Trump wins despite losing the popular vote. Booker/Beccera had 5% more of the vote than Trump/Gingrich. I think if this happens in 2020, then they'll probably attempt to remove the electoral college. Unlike 2016, none of the battleground states that Trump won were close enough for a recount. 

During the primaries -- Cruz and Rubio were doing well until about Super Tuesday, then Trump carried most of the primaries thereafter. For Democrats, it was pretty much a 3-way tie between Warren, Booker and Schultz. Schultz was rising so much that I thought he'd win. At the contested convention, support went to Booker, who was already at the top of the ticket. 

 

Result.jpg

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3 minutes ago, CalebsParadox said:

Speaking of those to add as an "off" candidate, maybe you could add Hickenlooper, O'Malley, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott from the poll as default "off" options?

I might do that later. I'm trying to focus on finishing the events and fine-tuning the level to make it as complete as possible before adding anything "off" options. I'm not sure I'll add any more people unless there's true speculation about a candidate, such as with Biden. Everyone else that I've included are people that I think have at least a 50% probability of running if Trump's presidency is controversial. I think the Democratic Party is moving Left, so Hickenlooper will probably not have much of a base for the primaries. I have Heinrich as a younger and more attractive person aiming for moderates. O'Malley had a terrible showing in 2016, much worse than even I expected, and I didn't expect him to win a single state. I think Haley will be too tied to the Trump administration. Tim Scott seems possible; however, I don't know if he's that ambitious. He would be a shoe-in for governor and he's declined to make a run for governor in their next election. If he wanted to run for president, that executive experience would presumably help. I might add Tim Scott, though. 

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39 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I might do that later. I'm trying to focus on finishing the events and fine-tuning the level to make it as complete as possible before adding anything "off" options. I'm not sure I'll add any more people unless there's true speculation about a candidate, such as with Biden. Everyone else that I've included are people that I think have at least a 50% probability of running if Trump's presidency is controversial. I think the Democratic Party is moving Left, so Hickenlooper will probably not have much of a base for the primaries. I have Heinrich as a younger and more attractive person aiming for moderates. O'Malley had a terrible showing in 2016, much worse than even I expected, and I didn't expect him to win a single state. I think Haley will be too tied to the Trump administration. Tim Scott seems possible; however, I don't know if he's that ambitious. He would be a shoe-in for governor and he's declined to make a run for governor in their next election. If he wanted to run for president, that executive experience would presumably help. I might add Tim Scott, though.

Will you bother adding a Constitution, Reform, Peace and Justice, and Socialist Candidate at all, given all those parties have put people on the Presidential ballot in most, if not every election, since 1996, even though I know they all tend to have "imperceptible" or "barely-perceptible" (as the terms pollsters use, go) polling?

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Update:

- Trump and Warren general election events created. 

- Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Rand Paul moved from official to undecided. 

- Susana Martinez and Lindsey Graham moved to OFF

- Joe Biden moved from OFF to undecided ON

- Sherrod Brown, Martin Heinrich, Kamala Harris and Howard Schultz moved from official to undecided

- Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard and Alan Grayson moved from ON to OFF

 

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Update: I have now finished all of the General Election Events. This will probably be the last major update until another possible candidate seems likely or some other event causes me to change the scenario. 

@TheMiddlePolitical

If you are unable to send me your 1960 scenario so I can try to fix it, then I'll probably make my own 1960 scenario. 

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