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Post your final election day prediction here


vcczar

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I'm posting my final prediction for the 2016 election. I feel fairly confident of Clinton's victory. I'm only unsure about NC. I won't be shocked if FL is lost to Trump, but the other states seem rather solid to me. Regardless, Trump cannot win. The Senate will be retaken by Democrats, at least with VP Kaine breaking the tie. I think Democrats will underperform in the House elections, winning only 9 seats, rather than the 10 to 15 that most people project. Democrats will gain one governor, but Republicans will hold many of the states. I think with a Senate majority to turn Democrat, Merrick Garland may get confirmed before Clinton has a chance to appoint a more liberal judge. 

President:

Clinton wins 322-216 

Clinton 50%

Trump 44%

Johnson 4.0%

Stein 1.5%

McMullin 0.5%

http://www.270towin.com/maps/jK6XX

 

Senate:

51-49 Democrats: 

AK: Murkowski (R) 

AL: Shelby (R)

AR: Boozman (R)

AZ: McCain (R)

CA: Harris (D)

CO: Bennet (D)

CT: Blumenthal (D)

FL: Rubio (R), narrowly over Murphy (D)

GA: Isakson (R)

HI: Schatz (D)

IA: Grassley (R)

ID: Crapo (R)

IL: Duckworth (D), defeating incumbent Kirk (R)

IN: Bayh (D), narrowly defeating Young (R) of the incumbent party

KS: Moran (R)

KY: Paul (R)

LA: Boustany (R)

MD: Van Hollen (D)

MO: Blunt (R), narrowly defeats Kander (D)

NC: Burr (R), narrowly defeats Ross (D)

ND: Hoeven (R)

NH: Hassan (D), narrowly defeats incumbent Ayotte (R)

NV: Cortez-Masto (D) narrowly defeats Heck (R) of the incumbent party.

NY: Schumer (D)

OH: Portman (R), destroys Strickland (D), a former governor. 

OK: Lankford (R)

OR: Wyden (D)

PA: McGinty (D), narrowly defeats incumbent Toomey (R)

SC: Scott (R)

SD: Thune (R)

UT: Lee (R)

VT: Leahy (D)

WA: Murray (D)

WI: Feingold (D) defeats incumbent Johnson (R)

 

House of Reps:

Dems gain +9, leaving Reps with 238-197 majority, Speaker Ryan keeps the chair: 

 

Governor: 

Dems gain +1, but most state governors will remain Reps, and likely most state legislatures will remain Reps:

DE: Carney (D) 

IN: Gregg (D) defeats Holcomb (R) of the incumbent party

MO: Koster (D) narrowly beats Greitens (R)

MT: Bullock (D)

NC: Cooper (D) narrowly beats incumbent McCrory (R)

ND: Burgum (R)

NH: Sununu (R) narrowly defeats Van Ostern (D) of the incumbent party

OR: Brown (D)

UT: Herbert (R)

VT: Minter (D), narrowly defeats Scott (R)

WA: Inslee (D)

WV: Justice (D) defeats Cole (R)

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President

http://www.270towin.com/maps/KbeGZ

Senate 

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/avZNba

House

GOP Majority 242-193

Governor

DEM: MT,WA,OR, and DE

GOP: UT,ND,MO,IN,WV (VERY CLOSE), NC, VT, and, NH.

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Just a couple of weeks ago I thought Clinton would win by a landslide.  Now, I think it's going to be very close and wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins.  I just have a bad feeling about this election.

President

Clinton 279 Trump 259

Clinton 45%

Trump 42%

Johnson 8%

Stein 3%

McMullin 1%

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ne0YQ

Senate

51 D - 49 R

Florida: Rubio R

Illinois:  Duckworth D

Indiana:  Bayh D

Missouri:  Blunt R

North Carolina:  Burr R

New Hampshire:  Hassan D

Nevada:  Cortez Masto D

Ohio:  Portman R

Pennsylvania:  McGinty D

Wisconsin:  Russ Feingold D

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/lg59Z2

House of Reps

Republicans 231 Democrats 204

Governors

Indiana:  Gregg D

Missouri:  Koster D

Montana:  Bullock D

North Carolina:  Cooper D

New Hampshire:  Sununu R

Vermont:  Scott R

West Virginia:  Cole R

 

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President

http://www.270towin.com/maps/dNz8R

Senate 

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/lpDDOl http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/lpDDOl

House:

234 (R) - 201 (D)

Governors:

DEM: WA, OR, VT and DE

GOP: UT,ND,MO,IN, WV, NC, MT and, NH.

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It's either going to be a very short night or a very long night. If the polls are close to right or underestimate Trump he's in with a shot and we're going to be waiting for Nevada. She's almost certain to win the PV, either way. If the polls have overestimated Trump by even a %, it's going to be a very short night and Clinton will be declaring victory.

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President: http://www.270towin.com/maps/dNJXl

Senate :http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/a6zyZa

Governors:

Dem:WA,OR,MT,IN,WV,DE,NC

Rep:UT,ND,MZ,VT,NH

House:236 (R) - 199 (D)

 

Trump PV:50%

Clinton PV:43%

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