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My 2020 Scenario


vcczar
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Since there are major bugs in my All-Star Scenario, I've turned to working on my 2020 scenario until @admin_270 has the time to help me fix the All-Star scenario (I know he's busy). 

In the 2020 scenario, I have Clinton as the incumbent. Her economy has been fairly strong, slightly better than Obama's, but her presidency has been very unexciting, except for the reduction of ISIS into a much more minor force. She hasn't done enough for progressives, and she hasn't done enough to appeal to anti-establishment on the left or the right. She's basically been, as was expected, three more years of Obama, which makes the establishment Democrats happy, but not enough people happy. As such, she faces challengers from her own party, as well as from Republicans. 

Clinton has a structural advantages, and so may be able to secure nomination fairly quickly. I am hoping to create events, in which Clinton tries to appeal to Progressives, which would increase her support, while reducing the support of her challenges. I'll put these events at about 25% likely. 

Republicans, meanwhile, are still fragmented. Trump might run for reelection. Paul Ryan is an unliked Speaker within his own party, but still the only person holding them together. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich are also leading sections of the party. Knowing that these disparate parts must work together to defeat a 4th Democratic term in the presidency is the only thing preventing a swath of independent candidacies vs. Hillary Clinton, a strategy that would completely backfire (see 1836 election with the independent Whig candidacies). 

Here are the candidates in my scenario. I may add some:

Republicans-

Donald Trump - Independent Populist Republican

Ted Cruz - Puritan Conservative Republican

Marco Rubio - Compromise Conservative Republican

Chris Christie - Moderate Republican

John Kasich - Moderate Republican

Rand Paul - Libertarian Republican

Lindsey Graham - War Hawk Republican

Bobby Jindal - Compromise Conservative Republican

Scott Walker - Compromise Conservative Republican

Paul Ryan - Compromise Conservative Republican

Susana Martinez - Moderate Republican

Jon Huntsman - Independent moderate Republican

John Thune - Compromise Conservative Republican

Mike Pence - Compromise Conservative Republican 

Brian Sandoval - Moderate Republican

Nikki Haley - Compromise Conservative Republican

Tom Cotton - Compromise Conservative Republican

Ben Sasse - Compromise Conservative Republican

Tim Scott - Compromise Conservative Republican

Joni Ernst - Compromise Populist Conservative Republican

 

Democrats: 

Hillary Clinton - Establishment Democrat

Elizabeth Warren - Progressive Democrat

Sherrod Brown - Progressive Democrat

Alan Grayson - Populist Progressive Democrat

Julian Castro - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Cory Booker - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Brian Schweitzer - Establishment Democrat

Andrew Cuomo - Establishment Democrat

Kirsten Gillibrand - Establishment Democrat

Amy Klobuchar - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Deval Patrick - Establishment Democrat

Howard Schultz - Independent Populist Progressive Democrat

Kamala Harris - Establishment Democrat

Martin Heinrich - Establishment Democrat

Tulsi Gabbard - Compromise Establishment Democrat

For both parties, Compromise candidates are likely to accept platform ideas from all factions of the party, and enact them. They're also likely to flip-flop. Independent candidates are likely to veer off in ways that are unacceptable to the party in general. 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Since there are major bugs in my All-Star Scenario, I've turned to working on my 2020 scenario until @admin_270 has the time to help me fix the All-Star scenario (I know he's busy).

In the 2020 scenario, I have Clinton as the incumbent. Her economy has been fairly strong, slightly better than Obama's, but her presidency has been very unexciting, except for the reduction of ISIS into a much more minor force. She hasn't done enough for progressives, and she hasn't done enough to appeal to anti-establishment on the left or the right. She's basically been, as was expected, three more years of Obama, which makes the establishment Democrats happy, but not enough people happy. As such, she faces challengers from her own party, as well as from Republicans.

Clinton has a structural advantages, and so may be able to secure nomination fairly quickly. I am hoping to create events, in which Clinton tries to appeal to Progressives, which would increase her support, while reducing the support of her challenges. I'll put these events at about 25% likely.

Republicans, meanwhile, are still fragmented. Trump might run for reelection. Paul Ryan is an unliked Speaker within his own party, but still the only person holding them together. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich are also leading sections of the party. Knowing that these disparate parts must work together to defeat a 4th Democratic term in the presidency is the only thing preventing a swath of independent candidacies vs. Hillary Clinton, a strategy that would completely backfire (see 1836 election with the independent Whig candidacies).

Here are the candidates in my scenario. I may add some:

Republicans-

Donald Trump - Independent Populist Republican

Ted Cruz - Puritan Conservative Republican

Marco Rubio - Compromise Conservative Republican

Chris Christie - Moderate Republican

John Kasich - Moderate Republican

Rand Paul - Libertarian Republican

Lindsey Graham - War Hawk Republican

Bobby Jindal - Compromise Conservative Republican

Scott Walker - Compromise Conservative Republican

Paul Ryan - Compromise Conservative Republican

Susana Martinez - Moderate Republican

Jon Huntsman - Independent moderate Republican

John Thune - Compromise Conservative Republican

Mike Pence - Compromise Conservative Republican

Brian Sandoval - Moderate Republican

Nikki Haley - Compromise Conservative Republican

Tom Cotton - Compromise Conservative Republican

Ben Sasse - Compromise Conservative Republican

Tim Scott - Compromise Conservative Republican

Joni Ernst - Compromise Populist Conservative Republican

 

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - Establishment Democrat

Elizabeth Warren - Progressive Democrat

Sherrod Brown - Progressive Democrat

Alan Grayson - Populist Progressive Democrat

Julian Castro - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Cory Booker - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Brian Schweitzer - Establishment Democrat

Andrew Cuomo - Establishment Democrat

Kirsten Gillibrand - Establishment Democrat

Amy Klobuchar - Compromise Establishment Democrat

Deval Patrick - Establishment Democrat

Howard Schultz - Independent Populist Progressive Democrat

Kamala Harris - Establishment Democrat

Martin Heinrich - Establishment Democrat

Tulsi Gabbard - Compromise Establishment Democrat

For both parties, Compromise candidates are likely to accept platform ideas from all factions of the party, and enact them. They're also likely to flip-flop. Independent candidates are likely to veer off in ways that are unacceptable to the party in general.

 

 

 

It looks like quite the free-for-all. You don't plan the Libertarians to make another big push or an opportunistic Independent to throw their hat in the ring to try to take advantage of the two main parties' divisiveness?

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40 minutes ago, Patine said:

It looks like quite the free-for-all. You don't plan the Libertarians to make another big push or an opportunistic Independent to throw their hat in the ring to try to take advantage of the two main parties' divisiveness?

I'll have a Libertarian Party, but I haven't looked into how I will create them. I think if Johnson had performed well in this election, then they could have usurped the Republican Party in 2020, but I don't think that will happen anymore. I think a pure Libertarian would reduce it back to a 1% party. I think a more informed Gary Johnson type person, perhaps even Bill Weld, would make it potentially a 15% party. 

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