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New Fictitious US 2020 scenario


Patine
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I have some new ideas for a fictitious US 2020 scenario, which build upon some of my near future hypothetical fiction ideas, and I may expand my scope into a broader sense of electoral scenarios going up to that point, but we'll see. I MAY also do this scenario by the P4E2008 engine, as I've found a number of aspects of the scenario editor a bit annoying, but, then again, it's been several updates since I've attempted to make a scenario with PI, so we'll see. I would like to see the actual results of the RW 2016 elections, but given the most likely results, this is my storyline:

Hillary Clinton wins on November 8th, 2016. Donald Trump cries foul and declares the election was rigged, After about a year of fruitless litigation, he vows to run again.

Clinton's presidency is rocky, but not as controversial in the end as Obama's. There are still some locking horns with Congress and some state governments, but some progress and compromise is made.

The world economic scene and the position of many of the US's biggest allies come into threat when Marine LePen, the leader of the far-right-wing, anti-Islamic, Euroscpetic party in France the Front National, is elected French President, threatening to unravel the EU at it's core in a way the Brexit never could. Clinton tries diplomatically to convince EU leader not to descend to fractious squabbling. Trump, though having no government position, rallies for the EU nations "to do what their hearts tell them."

ISIS begins making a military comeback after losing Mosul, rallying and taking significant ground. The nations fighting them (the Western-led coalition, Russia and their Syrian ally Assad, Iran, and the independently FSA and non-Western-led Kurdish militias), already divided in command structure and with little effective coordination between them, have difficulty effectively reacting to such a sudden resurgence.

In gubernatorial elections between 2016 and 2020, two shocking things happen. Donald Trump wins a shocking victory as an Independent as Governor of New Jersey, playing upon a divided vote share between the two main  parties' candidates, and giving him his first elected position and a degree of legitimacy, even though it's obvious knowledge he only sought the office as a vehicle for his second run at office moreso than a real interest in governing New Jersey in the long-term. Also, a known and vocal pro-secessionist candidate wins the Governorship of Texas (if anyone knows the name of a recent or current Texan politician in such a mold, that would be helpful.

More to come...

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The RNC, preparing for the 2018 mid-term elections, hold a conference where it's leaked a senior member allegedly had said, "It is time to move beyond the disaster was Donald Trump and reorganize and regalvanize the party." The media makes a meal of it.

As a transitional act toward eventual planned Puerto Rican statehood, the Commonwealth, while still not yet receiving voting members of Congress or the green-light to hold a state constitutional convention, will, by a bipartisan bill, be allowed three electoral college votes in 2020 in the same scheme as is currently enjoyed by the District of Columbia.

Holding their first party congress in early 2018 in Veracruz, Mexico, the Pan-American Unity Party, a political party peacefully and electorally advocating for egalitarian hemisphere-wide political unity and borderless commerce. They set up and register national branches of the party in almost every sovereign nation and self-governing overseas dependency in the Western Hemisphere over 2018 and 2019, except in Cuba, where parties other the Communist Party of Cuba are not legally permitted to register, operate, or be active (although the chief of intelligence and internal security in the Cuban government states he believes the PAU party set up underground branches in the country "almost right away"). In the US, the majority of initial party member and petition signatories for registration and ballot access purposes are Hispanic immigrants and descendants of such.

More to come...

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The midterm Congressional elections of 2018, while pushing the Senate back to a marginal Democratic majority and having only a seats in the House of Representatives change hands between the two main parties, the Libertarian Party manages to take and unprecedented two seats, one by 2014 candidate Scott Soffen in Maryland, and one by previous perennial state office candidate John Monds in Georgia, one of the biggest vote earners in any election for the US Libertarian Party, the Green Party wins a California seat with former San Francisco Board of Supervisors member, and, as well, an ad hoc assembled group of seven nominal Independent member from New England and Midwest states funded, organized, and backed by, and in a loose coalition through, little-known Boston telecommunications billionaire Arthur Green, with House unofficial leadership of the seven falling to Chicago Congresswoman Angela Redhouse (both Green and Redhouse are fictitious characters this storyline's purposes). They unofficially are known as the "National Restoration Congressional Coalition," and strong rumours plans to register a broader and official political party and a 2020 Presidential ambition by Green begin to circulate. At the end of the day, though, Paul Ryan remains Speaker, though his reaffirmation vote is narrower, and Patty Murray becomes Senate Majority Leader, and the last holder under a Democratic majority, Harry Reid, has retired.

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Given that Trump is being planned to have a pretty much iconoclastic Independent second attempt at the Presidency, who does anyone here see as running for a GOP nomination, as the floor would be wide open? Also, does anyone see a member of the Democratic Party making a Primary challenge against Clinton, even if it ends up much like Buchanan in 1992, LaRouche in 1996, or Bradley in 2000, as easily brushed aside challenges to a sitting President? Also, is it realistic someone like Rand Paul would break GOP ranks and move to try and take the Libertarian candidacy?

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@Patine

I'd like the GOP to collapse, but they'll probably stay together. I expect them to still be too disorganized to win in 2020, though. 

I think Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Marco Rubio all try to run in order to define what the party will be. I think Trump, if he loses badly in 2016, will be kicked out of the Republican Party, or somehow prevented from running, which might give him a lot of support as an independent. I think Paul Ryan could run. I think a bunch of young, lesser known politicians run. I think other business people could run. Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez will run as minority candidates. Jon Huntsman might run, he's considering running for the Utah senate seat in 2018. George P. Bush? 

 

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8 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@Patine

I'd like the GOP to collapse, but they'll probably stay together. I expect them to still be too disorganized to win in 2020, though.

I think Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Marco Rubio all try to run in order to define what the party will be. I think Trump, if he loses badly in 2016, will be kicked out of the Republican Party, or somehow prevented from running, which might give him a lot of support as an independent. I think Paul Ryan could run. I think a bunch of young, lesser known politicians run. I think other business people could run. Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez will run as minority candidates. Jon Huntsman might run, he's considering running for the Utah senate seat in 2018. George P. Bush?

 

Trump is more or less expected to end up as an Independent. That'll probably be his default Primaries status in this scenario, in fact. The candidates listed there are a good sounding choice without a "stable of old warhorses" feel like some past US election Primary (and earlier) Convention competitions looked like. Do you think at all any Democrat would make an in-party challenge to Clinton, or that Paul would seriously consider running on a Libertarian ticket?

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The 2018 Russian Presidential Election leads to another (expected) Putin victory, but certain individuals at WikiLeaks, and those who claim to have connections to the Bank of Liechtenstein's money transfer department, claim campaign "donations" to Putin's campaigns were made by front corporations owned by Donald Trump. In the aftermath of Putin's latest disputed victory, an anti-Putin guerilla movement calling itself Novoe Oktober (New October, a reference to the month on the Old Calendar the 1917 Russian Revolution began) begins operating in remote parts of Siberia.

Kim Jong-un's obviously deteriorating health and psychological faculties, yet continuing stability (if harsh and heavy-handed) in his country lead some US foreign and military experts to suspect a "power behind the throne" figure or council, perhaps even one of foreign composition. Secretary of Defense Jim Webb shows great concern at such a potential situation.

In the opening of campaigning for the 2019 European Parliament elections, French President makes an unprecedented move - she declares that, by France's right of EU member states' legal control of balloting outside "prejudicial aspects," the polls in France will not open or be run for these Parliamentary elections, and will thus return no MEP's, though she admits she cannot, by EU electoral residency agreements, prevent French citizens living in other EU countries from voting for those countries' MEP's. The immediate shockwaves of this action are followed by snap elections in the Eastern EU, producing a Golden Dawn Government in Greece, a Jobbik Government in Hungary, and an ATAKA Government in Bulgaria.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

George P. Bush? 

In my 2022 Texas Secession Scenario George P. Bush is going to be one of the frontrunners for the Republican nomination.

 

I could see Charlie Baker running as he's a northern and moderate republican.  I can't imagine he would run in 2020, but Joe Kennedy III is someone I hope runs at some point in my lifetime.

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Thanks all!

 

In early 2019, indeed the National Restoration Congressional Committee, together with Arthur Green's planned Presidential bid, are formally registered and organized as the Restoration Party, built on a platform of "Rebuilding and Remaking America," a definite distinct wording from Trump's "Making America Great Again," and certainly intimating a distinctly separate platform. At the founding convention in Green's home city of Boston, Green is nominated unanimously as the Presidential candidate and wealthy North Carolina construction magnate Matthew Shaw is chosen as his running mate.

Musician and producer Kanye West announces he intends to fulfill his promise (or threat in some people's minds) made live and televised at the 2015 VMA's ceremony to run for President as an Independent. Independent New York billionaire and ex-Mayor, unsatisfied with several aspects he had high hopes for in a Clinton Presidency, also declares an Independent bid, marking a record three high-profile Independent candidacies (including Trump's, who has been shunned by the RNC and GOP leadership entirely), in a single US Presidential election, and raising fears of the election going to the House for the first time since 1824, almost two centuries prior.

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Same here, this is great. Very well thought-out. I was thinking it'd be interesting if Kanye was wrapped up in all this, and then there he was! I wonder if he'll actually make good on that promise. At this point, I wouldn't be all that surprised.

I also really like the aspect of the election potentially going to the House. How would that be handled in-game? Is there a system in place for that?

Either way, keep it up! I hope you're able to put this together, I'm loving it.

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Feeling frustrated with the slow pace of the CJTF-OIR military campaign against ISIS, and against the advice of other NATO military advisors who fear an utter humanitarian crisis and political upheaval, as well as inciting a harsh reaction from Russia fearing for what remains of it's ally in Assad's Syria's territory, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan orders the Turkish Armed Forces to make a full-out, unrestrained military onslaught into ISIS-held territory in Northern Syria and Iraq. Also, again to the shock of CJTR-OIR and NATO, especially since there had been previous strain between the two leaders of the normally long-standing regional allies, Israel declares air and SSM support for Erdogan's offensive "if it will end the regional plague of ISIS quicker without Israeli deaths being mandated." Despite concern by Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, the UK, and the Clinton Administration, LePen and the still-very-vocal Trump both say in a short period, almost paraphrasing each other, that ISIS will likely collapse quickly under such an assault before such a disaster being feared can even occur, and that an alternative, more insidious, reason concern and reluctance to support such an offensive must exist.

China, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, North Korea, India, South Africa, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Chile forge a new trade block agreement in Havana meant to challenge the global economic power of both the TPPA and, despite it's compromised status, the EU, marking a bold new move in the escalating trade pact war. American-based international megacorps insist the Clinton Administration apply economic and political pressures to maintain their privileged positions.

It's economy suddenly collapsing after it's tax haven status is ruined by international economic trends combined with much of it's biggest tourist infrastructure destroyed by Hurricane Elizabeth, a massive storm of the early 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Perry Christie, Prime Minister of the Bahamas, petitions for annexation by the US. He is rebuffed by the Clinton on the advice of US Democratic Senator from Florida Bill Nelson, who says they'd only be "annexing a mountain of debt and unemployment, and nothing more." However, given the election cycle is about to start PM Christie begins to try to appeal to other potential US Presidential candidates.

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With a second Scottish Independence Referendum in light of the Brexit vote pending, and the centre-right British Conservative Party still suffering from being rent in two by the Brexit campaign and vote (though not formally split as a party organization as yet), Nigel Farage, whose redundant policied party, the UK Independence Party, has been fishing around for a new purpose, joins with British National Party leader Nick Griffin, National Front leader David MacDonald, Britain First leader Paul Golding, English Democrat leader Robin Tilbrook, and Northern Ireland's biggest Loyalist/Unionist party (and biggest party period) in Stormont, Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster announce that they have hammered out past differences and antagonisms with each other and have merged to form a new far-right party titled the National Democratic Party that they believe will be a serious contender with a riven and disoriented Conservative Party and the seeming prospect of the secession of Scotland, long the stronghold of many safe Labour and Liberal Democratic seats. Political strategists in Clinton's Administration fear yet another far-right-wing government being elected in Europe in just a short period.

The Japanese Minster of National Self-Defense formally issue a secret request to the US Department of State to renegotiate the 1945 Instrument of Surrender and it's entrenched clause in the 1947 Japanese Constitution to allow the JSDF to acquire long-range SSM's and attack aircraft to make a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, feeling threatened by their increasing weapons tests, training exercises, and rapid armament. Though Secretary of Defense Webb believes it to be a very good idea, Clinton chooses to wait until after the election, indicating a sense of confidence in re-election.

By May 2019, the first seven candidates for the new Republican Primaries have all thrown their hats in the ring - House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator Ted Cruz, former Governor John Kasich, Governor Nikki Haley, Senator John Huntsman, Congressman George P. Bush, and Governor Susanna Martinez. Senator Marco Rubio and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina have not ruled out running again, and Senator Tim Scott, Governors Charlie Baker and Mary Falin, have also said they may run for the GOP primaries, but haven't yet formally committed. Billionaire Mark Cuban, who still says he hasn't settled on a party allegiance yet, says he my run in the 2020 GOP Primaries, or he may run in the 2024 Democratic Primaries, and will announce his decision in August of 2019. The lack of any known attempt at registering for the GOP Primaries by either Trump or Rand Paul seems to solidify suspicions that Trump will indeed again as an Independent (and is being edged out by the establishment), and that Paul may, if he runs at all, take the Libertarian torch.

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1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

Question, what is happening in the Labor Party in the UK?

They're campaigning against Scottish Independence in the second independence (because of the great number seats or could realistically get there), hoping the right-wing vote splits to their advantage (and thus rallying their urban base, including those immigrants who have already gained citizenship), and hoping the Liberal Democrats aren't the big winners by coming up through the middle.

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A number of Third Parties have begun the process of attempting to court celebrity or other big-profile candidates they believe may break with the establishment and take their banner. The Libertarians begin courting Senator Rand Paul and (since the iPhone de-encryption court order issue and some party members seeing Silicon Valley as a new "Heartland of Libertarianism") Apple CEO Tim Cook, the Green Party begin courting former Vice President Al Gore and Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, the Constitution Party works to reacquire the Reverend Charles Baldwin and former Ambassador Alan Keyes, as well tap for the first time the Reverend Pat Robertson, the Peace and Justice Party attempts to reacquire Actress Roseanne Barr and tap Actress Hannah Darryl, and the Socialist Party of America hopes to court Senator and 2016 Democratic Primaries nominee Bernie Sanders. All of these parties hope to bump up their profiles with such high-visibility candidates, even if a few (such as Gore, Cook, or Robertson) are getting up in age.

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Two Democratic Primary challengers to the sitting President Clinton announce themselves in early 2019 as well. To the left of her, former Senator Russ Feingold announces a bid, saying he'd "carry on Bernie Sanders' work where he left off in 2016." From the right, Clinton's Secretary of Defence, Jim Webb, expresses frustration with Clinton's defense and foreign policies and with "his advice constantly ignored," and states, though national security policy prevents him from going into detail, he has inside knowledge that leads him to believe a Clinton re-election would be a "disaster."

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Texas Governor and former Attorney-General known for many pro-states' rights (even to the point of parochialism) lawsuits against the Federal Government in the latter capacity (who was the one I'd mentioned elected in 2018, I just decided, given his record as AG, he would be the secession-leaning Governor I'd mentioned) makes a declaration in June 2019 that, depending on the outcome of the election in 2020, he may order the Texas State Electoral Commission to hold a referendum to determine popular support for the secession of the State of Texas from Union. He does not, however, say exactly which results would trigger him to order such a referendum and which wouldn't, nor just how binding he would consider the results of such a referendum. The vagueness thereof leads some to believe that the declaration is meant as a bluff or ploy to influence federal politics.

The 2019 European Parliament elections, the first conducted without either France or the UK participating (for different reasons) leads to a distorted result with both the far-right-wing Freedom Party and European National Front but also, surprisingly, the far-left-wing European Left Coalition and the Greens and Free Democrats Coalition gaining major advances, at the expense of the centre-right European People's Party, the centrist European Liberal and Democratic Party, and the centre-left European Socialist Party. The global markets go into rampant fluctuation, and Clinton's emissary to the EU Commission in Brussels urges calm and rational action.

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Wait, wait. Two more updates.

The Scottish Independence Referendum turns out a 60+% support for independence. Though negotiations for the terms, conditions, and mechanisms of independence, moves to rejoin the EU are delayed indefinitely, despite the referendum having been triggered by the Brexit result, due to the chaotic situation of EU politics and economics at the time. The pound sterling plummets, and the global suffer again.

Nationalist and regionalism are also ascendant in Canada, as Liberal PM Justin Trudeau is regarded as not fulfilling his promise in office, but the Conservatives and New Democrats are not held in the highest esteem anymore, either. The Bloc Quebecois and it's provincial analog, the Parti Quebecois, are on the rise in the polls. Rumours of negotiations for an as yet unnamed and unregistered unified Western secession party combining the Western Bloc Coalition, the Western Independence Party, the Alberta First Party (formerly the Separatist Party of Alberta), the BC Party, the Libertarian Parties of Manitoba and British Columbia, members of the defunct Western Concept Coalition, and even members, including several MLA's, of the more mainstream but right-wing and regionalist provincial parties, the BC Conservative Party, the Wildrose Alliance, and the Saskatchewan Party. Also, a sudden revival of the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party in Newfoundland and Labrador and the First People's Party in constituencies where Native Canadians, Metis, and Inuit form large amounts of the population, such as the northern parts of BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, the Labrador constituency in Newfoundland and Labrador, and the three northern Territories. With 2020 being the latest allowed constitutionally for the next Canadian Parliamentary Election to be held, the prospect of the US' only northern neighbour by land border fracturing into several independent nations worries diplomats, economist, and border security specialists in the US, and would likely mean that many treaties and trade pacts, many of them long-standing, would be put in doubt and have to be re-evaluated, renegotiated, or negotiated anew.

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