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If Clinton wins in 2016; Republicans might evolve


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If Clinton wins, it will be the 9th time that a single party has won the executive for at least three elections in a row.

3 elections: Obama/Clinton
3 elections: Reagan/Bush
5 elections: Roosevelt/Truman
3 elections: Harding/Coolidge/Hoover
4 elections: McKinley/Roosevelt/Taft
*6 elections: Lincoln/Grant/Hayes/Garfield
3 elections: Jackson/Van Buren
*7 elections: Jefferson/Madison/Monroe/Adams
*3 elections: Washington/Adams

Those with asterisks need some clarification. Andrew Johnson, a Democratic party member, finished Lincoln's second term. JQ Adams was technically of Jefferson's party, but at that point, he was really independent, and a proto-National Republican/Whig. Washington was technically of no party, but about 90% of his appointments or more were Federalists, as was his key adviser, Alexander Hamilton. Had Roosevelt not contested Taft's bid for reelection, it is more than likely Taft would have beaten Wilson, which would have been 5 straight Republican victories.

If Clinton wins a 3rd term, the Republicans may have to rebrand themselves, similar to how the Democrats did after Reagan/Bush. They moved from New Deal Democrats to centrist New Democrats. The closest analogy would be if the Republicans moved closer to the center, most likely socially. It's possible the Johnson/Weld type Libertarian Conservative (which isn't all too much Libertarian or Conservative) might foreshadow the 2020 Republicans

 

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Interesting. But Johnson is nowhere near a Conservative. Someone who agrees 73% with Bernie Sanders cannot be a Right-Wing Libertarian. He's definitely left wing. Austin Petersen is Right-Wing.

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@ThePotatoWalrus

The agreement between Johnson and Sanders is almost exclusively on social issues, military intervention, drugs and privacy. Johnson is socially moderate to liberal. However, Johnson is way more conservative than any Democrats, Sanders, Clinton or even Webb, on economic issues. Weld is similarly. 

Johnson is probably more economically conservative than moderate Republicans. 

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Yeah that's my assumption too. I don't think Clinton can win reelection in 2020 easily. Imagine having Rubio, Kasich or even Jeb Bush as her 2016 opponent. Clinton would have no chance against them, I think. The only thing is that some people are unsure about Trump and therefore they don't support him. That is Clinton's advantage this year. 2020 that's gone and most likely the Republicans will win this election cycle.

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@Conservative Elector 2 It seems my response I typed earlier didn't show up. I think 2020 will be easier for Clinton, since she'll be running on her performance as president, rather than all the stuff that was dragging her down in this election. That is, unless this old stuff repeats itself anew. I also think the Republican Party has to really remake itself, and they may need more than 4 years to do it. I think 2016 was the year to beat Clinton, but you all nominated Trump, the worst nominee in the history of the United States to face a Democratic nominee that could have easily been beat by many better choices, such as Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Graham (not Cruz). 

In 2020, I think that only a bad economy will defeat Clinton, since I expect her to handle the presidency at least as well as Obama. I don't expect email scandals or another Benghazi or anything like that. I expect her presidency to be at least average, and probably less imaginative and risky as Obama's. She'll be viewed as safe. However, if the economy is bad, then I think Paul Ryan, or any Republican center-right of Paul Ryan can beat Clinton in 2020. 

I expect a new and exciting Republican Party that is much more socially moderate, and fiscally responsible (including in defense). Basically, I expect them to mostly ignore the social conservatives when that minority of the party suggests goals that would dissuade centrists or dissatisfied Democrats. 

Just the Democrats had to move center following three Republican terms, the Republicans now have to do the same. 

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

@vcczar I thought the GOP was heading into that direction after McCain and Romney (two moderates) were nominated but I was wrong. With people like Ted Cruz lurking around the party, the GOP will never evolve

My kind is just too strong :)

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1 minute ago, Jonathan Kudelka said:

And you will keep losing elections to people like Hillary Clinton and being laughed at

Then the nation really is doomed

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On ‎10‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 6:01 PM, Jonathan Kudelka said:

@vcczar I thought the GOP was heading into that direction after McCain and Romney (two moderates) were nominated but I was wrong. With people like Ted Cruz lurking around the party, the GOP will never evolve

Cruz leans Libertarian on some issues.  If you compare him and Rand Paul on the Senate comparison chart, they are VERY close.

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