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EU Referendum - 2016


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As many of you will know the campaign on the UK's EU membership is in full swing and the vote is being held on June 23rd. This would make for an interesting scenario.

For issues, the Scottish referendum scenario is a good groundwork, namely breaking the whole issue in itself down - immigration, jobs, banking, health, a post-Bremain EU, a post-Brexit UK in general.

In terms of the map, the vote will be counted in individual counting areas. There are somewhat bigger than the parliamentary constituencies - for instance Sunderland (usually the first to declare) has three seats in the House of Commons but it is one counting area. So the regions will have to be altered somewhat. If I wind up making this however I could well just split it into the EU parliamentary regions - North East England, London, Eastern England, Scotland etc. Obviously it is primarily about the national result and which side wins, say, the Mid Sussex counting area matters less than which party wins, say, the Bristol West parliamentary constituency in a general election.

Even though neither side has an actual official leader, there could be many possible playable leaders, even throwing a few celebrities into the mix for fun and silliness:

Remain - David Cameron, George Osborne, Theresa May, John Major, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, Ed Miliband, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond, Leanne Wood, Natalie Bennett, Caroline Lucas, Lord Rose, Richard Branson, Lord Sugar, Jeremy Clarkson

Leave - Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Nuttall, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith, Daniel Hannan, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart, Lord Owen, Jim Sillars, Jenny Jones, Dave Nellist, Arthur Scargill, Tim Martin, Peter Hitchens, Katie Hopkins

Ideas welcome.

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Although certainly, like many other referendums in electoral history (we've only had one federally in Canada - the Charlottetown Accord approval one), I tend not to prefer referendum scenarios for TheorySpark games, given their essentially two "candidates" with one issue with two stances, in realistic effect. Maybe you'll surprise me, but I recall, for instance, Matvail's old Quebec 1995 Independence Referendum scenario for PM4E2008 didn't even launch - it crashed as soon as you chose a side. If you find a way to make it more interesting than the simple binary nature of referendums in RL, I'll be interested to see what you come up with and how you do it, however.

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Were you planning adapting this to Forever or Infinity? I would suggest having the alternative leaders as the leaders of the campaigns which competed for designation, such as Arron Banks for Leave.eu. Here is a report naming some of the campaigns which competed for designation as the "lead campaign": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36038672. The Electoral Commission "score-card" link within that link doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

 

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Hi all, I'd already started work on an EU referendum scenario, I can upload it if you want to use it as a base?

Its functional but missing events, unique issues and multiple candidates. It is a PM Infinity scenario but you can edit the scenario through the President Infinity engine as there are more functions in that editor ATM.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 6/7/2016 at 5:01 PM, Patine said:

Although certainly, like many other referendums in electoral history (we've only had one federally in Canada - the Charlottetown Accord approval one), I tend not to prefer referendum scenarios for TheorySpark games, given their essentially two "candidates" with one issue with two stances, in realistic effect. Maybe you'll surprise me, but I recall, for instance, Matvail's old Quebec 1995 Independence Referendum scenario for PM4E2008 didn't even launch - it crashed as soon as you chose a side. If you find a way to make it more interesting than the simple binary nature of referendums in RL, I'll be interested to see what you come up with and how you do it, however.

I could think of some individual issues to add. For example:

Wrecking the Economy
Far-Left: We have nothing to lose but our chains!
Left: Didn't the banks already do that?
Center-Left: Wrecking the economy would be bad.
Center: Nope.
Center-Right: Probably opposed, unless it helps our donors make a profit.
Right: Bring it on.
Far-Right: Do ya feel lucky, punk?

;)

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Joking aside, I am interested in trying to use the 2015 scenario as a template for the potential snap election coming later this year. In addition to updating leaders, my thinking is that some of the northern constituencies that were heavily pro-Leave would now be Labour/UKIP battlegrounds, while some of the more pro-Remain Conservative seats would be trending towards the Lib Dems. Any other suggestions on how this might play out for the various parties? Would the DUP suffer a little for their pro-Leave stance? And if so, which of the other Northern Irish parties would benefit the most?

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There was a discussion on the General subforums over whether the results in Northern Ireland suddenly made a reunification with the Republic of Ireland referendum more likely to succeed, or improved the sentiment to do so. Unlike one or two other in the discussion, I believe it doesn't necessarily, it just makes things much more complicated there, at least for the time being. It wasn't a clean Republican vs. Loyalist split, even in terms of party endorsement. Yes, both major Republican parties (Sinn Fein and the SDLP) endorsed staying, but so did the oldest and longest-standing Loyalist Party, and Conservative Party regional ally, the UUP, as well as the Alliance Party. Thing is, statistically, on the issue of reunification itself, a majority of Northern Irish people have polled in opposition to the idea, but the minority is big enough to give the Republican Parties a significant presence and lead to issues in NI's history like the Troubles.

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I have some ideas for issues, the politics of the different candidates could well end up making the leave/remain camps more left wing/right wing. An Arthur Scargill leave v. Alex Salmond remain could be rather fun.

  • Potential second indy ref in Scotland
  • UK Financial Industry
  • Fishing Industry
  • Farming Subsidies
  • Scientific Research
  • Freedom of movement
  • Australian style immigration system
  • Threat to Northern Ireland peace process
  • Environment
  • Security/Terrorism
  • Norwegian/Swiss relationship

There are also potentially many hundreds of endorsers/surrogates and with the local counting areas of 326 (England), 32 (Scotland), 18 (N. Ireland), 1 for Gibraltar and 22 (Wales) the endorsers could be quite localised. With only two parties on the ballot the UK game engine should run quite quick even with a high number of counting areas. I'd be quite happy to provide assistance with this scenario. We could also work on leadership scenarios/ new general elections as well given the fall out.

For referendum events there are plenty (there were tens of policy discussions/threats/warnings/promises making the news every night over in the UK)

The current UKGE 2015 scenario could quite easily be modded in to this by merging constituencies etc.

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Liam Fox for Leave could be fun too. :)

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