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Starting Percentages Query


daons
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A little bit of advice please?

When setting starting percentages, apart from official opinion polls from where do people set the figures especially for relatively safe seats/regions,

For my private scenarios I tend to use official election results but it often results in landslides for the for parties marginally ahead.

It would just be useful to get a feel how others work on this.

Thanks,

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That was really a tricky one in my Canada 1957 scenario (which, fingers crossed, I'm hoping RI Democrat has figured out the error for and I can release soon). Historically, the Liberals, who had already been in power with massive majorities for 22 years previously and with a stellar economy going into the election were polling as getting yet another massive majority at the start. Everyone thought they certainly would - EVEN PC leader John Diefenbaker, who just thought he'd end up increasing his seat total, and that was it. It was a HUGE surprise to everyone, even Diefenbaker himself, when the PC's won a minority government, including a number of long-standing cabinet ministers losing their seats, on election night. I started by setting polling to the dropping of the writs numbers and then hammering the Liberals with events. When my error is clear (knock on wood), I hope to see how well that turned out.

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