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2016 Election w/ updated polls


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I've updated the polls state-by-state (where applicable).

Here is my play-by-play of a 2016 election. I'm playing as the Green party and not doing anything, so as to see how it plays out.

Democrats are leading in the polls in October 2015 - 40% to 38% and with 277 EVs to 195 EVs.

FL, VA, NC and CO are dead even.

Candidates:

Republicans:

Undecided 20%

Christie 11.7%

Bush 11.4%

Huckabee 10.6%

Paul 10%

Cruz 8.4%

Ryan 6.9%

Rubio 5.9%

Walker 4.7%

Perry 3.9%

Santorum 3.5%

Jindal 2.2%

King 0.8%

Democrats:

Clinton 55.3%

Undecided 20%

Biden 9.4%

Warren 5.7%

Cuomo 3.3%

O'Malley 1.7%

Schweitzer 1.6%

Booker 1.2%

Warner 1%

Grayson 0.9%

3rd Parties:

Libertarian

Green

Bernie Sanders as an Independent

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Pre-primary results

------------------------------------------------------------------

October:

Jimmy Carter endorses Alan Grayson

GHW Bush, George W Bush endorse Jeb Bush

Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Harry Reid endorse Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama, Bill Maher endorse Joe Biden

Martin O'Malley wins DEM pre-primary debate

Marco Rubio wins REP pre-primary debate

Rick Perry flops in a pre-primary debate

Republicans take the lead in the polls by mid-October, but lose the lead by late October.

November:

Bush and Clinton as Crystal Ball leaders

Both parties are tied in the polls

Clinton is the DEM front runner.

Bush leads Christie by 1 point; Rubio rising in the polls.

George Soros, Tom Harkin endorse Cory Booker

Rick Scott endorses Jeb Bush

Americans for Tax Reform/Grover Norquist endorse Chris Christie

Tim Kaine endorses Hillary Clinton

Cruz wins pre-primary debate

Biden and Schweitzer draw pre-primary debate

Republicans take lead in mid-November

December:

Bush and Clinton as Crystal Ball leaders

Republicans lead in the polls by 2.5%

Clinton is the DEM front runner; Cuomo rising in the polls

Christie and Bush are virtually tied as REP front runner

Mitt Romney, Des Moines Register, Kelly Ayotte, Mike Pence endorse Jeb Bush

Jay Nixon endorses Joe Biden

Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper endorse Hillary Clinton

Schweitzer wins pre-primary debate

Paul and Rubio draw pre-primary debate

Democrats fall by 5% in the polls by mid-December, but gap closes towards the end of the month.

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Primary Results

----------------------------------------------------------------------

January:

Clinton and Bush lead the Crystal Ball Rankings

Republicans lead by 2% in the polls.

Bush is the REP front runner by 2% over both Christie and Huckabee; Ryan is rising in the polls.

Scott Walker is predicted to win IA; Paul Ryan predicted to win NH

Clinton is the DEM front runner by 20% over Biden

Cuomo and Warren are tied in the polls in IA; Warner predicted to win NH

Family Leader, Ann Coulter endorse Chris Christie

Sarah Palin, John Kasich, Brian Sandoval endorse Marco Rubio

Donald Trump, Nikki Haley endorse Ted Cruz

Tea Party Express endorses Scott Walker

John Kerry endorses Elizabeth Warren

John McCain endorses Jeb Bush

Al Franken endorses Hillary Clinton

Mary Landrieu endorses Mark Warner

Sherrod Brown endorses Joe Biden

O'Malley wins primary debate

Rubio, Cruz and Jindal draw a primary debate

Huckabee and King flop at a debate

Walker wins IA

Warren wins IA

Ryan wins NH, SC

Warner wins NH, NV

Biden wins SC

Democrats take a slight lead in the polls by the end of January

1/29 - King drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

1/29 - Schweitzer drops out without endorsing

1/29 - Booker drops out and endorses Hillary Clinton

1/30 - O'Malley drops out without endorsing

February:

Ryan and Clinton lead Crystal Ball rankings

Democrats lead in the polls by 1%

Clinton is the DEM front runner by 19% over Warren; Warren rising

Ryan is the REP front runner by 3% over Bush; Ryan and Walker are rising

Mark Udall endorses Hillary Clinton

The Heritage Foundation/Jim DeMint, Jan Brewer endorse Ted Cruz

Right Wing Talk Radio endorses Paul Ryan

Left Wing Talk Radio endorses Mark Warner

Mike Beebe endorses Elizabeth Warren

Lisa Murkowski endorses Jeb Bush

Clinton wins primary debate

Biden flops in primary debate

Rubio wins primary debate

Santorum wins FL

Christie wins NV

Jindal wins CO, MI

Perry wins MN

Bush wins ME, AZ

Clinton wins AZ

Democrats lose, but then regain lead in the polls.

2/3 Grayson drops out without endorsing

March:

Ryan and Clinton lead Crystal Ball rankings

Democrats and Republicans are virtually tied in the polls

Clinton is the DEM front runner by 20% against both Warren and Biden

Ryan is the REP front runner by 2% against Bush; Rubio rising

Bush expected to take most Super Tuesday states

Clinton expected to take all Super Tuesday states

Mark Pryor endorses Elizabeth Warren

Deval Patrick endorses Hillary Clinton

Lindsay Graham endorses Mike Huckabee

Bush wins WA, ID, ND, OK

Ryan wins AK, MA, VT, VA, (GM), KS, (NMI), (VI), WY, AL, (AS), HI, MS and the rest.

Santorum wins GA

Rubio wins OH

Christie wins TN

Clinton wins CO, GA, MA, MN, MO, OK, (PR), TN, TX, (VI), VA, HI, (NMI), ME, and the rest.

Biden wins OH

Warren wins VT

3/8 - Rand Paul drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/8 - Mark Warner drops out without endorsing

3/9 - Jindal drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/9 - Joe Biden drops out and endorses Hillary Clinton

3/11 - Walkers drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/14 - Rubio drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/14 - Santorum drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/18 - Cruz drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/21 - Christie drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/23 - Perry drops out and endorses Paul Ryan

3/24 - Cuomo drops out and endorses Hillary Clinton

Clinton and Ryan are virtually the winners of their respective primaries

Democrats lead by 1%

=Fast-forwarding to Conventions=

Stein selects Honkala as VP choice; Green 0.2% in the polls

Johnson selects Gray as VP choice; Libertarians 0.5% in the polls

Sanders selects Brown as VP choice; Sanders 2% in the polls

Ryan selects Sandoval as VP choice; Republicans 42% in the polls

Clinton selects Booker as VP choice; Democrats 41% in the polls

Sanders within range to cost Clinton the election, as REP are winning in New England, where he has split the Dem party.

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General Election

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September:

Republicans lead by 2% in the polls w/ landslide lead in EVs, due to Sanders splitting Dem votes in the Northeast.

12% undecided voters

October:

Republican lead drops to 1%; however, they keep landslide lead in EVs

11% undecided voters

Clinton wins the 1st debate

Sandoval wins the VP debate

Clinton wins the 2nd debate

The Economist and Washington Times endorse Ryan

NY Times and Washington Post endorse Clinton

Clinton wins the 3rd debate

--------------------------------------------------------------

Final week

-------------------------------------------------------------

Going into the final week, both parties are tied in the polls, but REP have landslide lead in EVs

7.6% undecided voters

Ryan attack ad backfires

Clinton is viewed as too negative

Noisy protesters at Booker event

Going into election night, both parties are tied in the polls

Republicans expected to win with 333 EVs and 47% of the vote

-----------------------------------------------------

Results

-----------------------------------------------------

REP Ryan/Sandoval 49%/326 EV

DEM Clinton/Booker 48.1%/212 EV (lost Northwest and 3 states in New England)

IND Sanders/Brown 2.2%

LIB Johnson/Gray 0.5%

GRN Stein/Honkala 0.2%

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Analysis

------------------------------------------

Sanders cost Clinton 2.2% popular votes and 32 electoral votes. However, even if she had received those, she still would have lost the election 294-244, despite having won the popular vote by 1.3%

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Interesting. I wonder if you updated Palin's poll #'s. From time to time, I have voted in several Tea Party polls and others...results shown her around 6-8% nationally. Do you have a favorite candidate in the 2016 scenario?

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@Dallas

I've been using only the polls on wikipedia and real politics. Palin is basically a non-factor in those bipartisan polls.

Favorite 2016 candidate? Not sure, I think I like Alan Grayson the most. Bernie Sanders will be my favorite. I like Elizabeth Warren. Those are my 3. However, Dennis Kucinich was my man.

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