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Electorate_trends numbers different than actual

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I have created a secenario with Dick Cheney as an independent. I set Wyoming to be a small advantage for Cheney. Yet, when I ran the game, he was severely behind. To get a slight Cheney lead at the beginning, I had to use the following numbers (Bush/Kerry/Cheney/Badnarik):





I've seen other scenarios that handle independents fine. What am I doing wrong?

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

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Sometimes a party just gets a nasty initial polling percentage, so check your random variable, too. I set it to 1, and it's still enough to swing entire regions (in my Halliston scenario)

Given, Halliston only has 59 ridings. If you've got a lot more (Canada has ?301?), you might want to set it to a higher number, but I wouldn't set it at more than 5.

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