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2015 UK General Election scenario thread


RFK/JFKfan

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For parties:

Conservatives

Labour

Liberal Democrats

UK Independence

Green

British National

Scottish National

Plaid Cymru

Democratic Unionist

Conservative and Unionists

Sinn Fein

Social Democratic and Labour

Alliance

Respect

English Democrats

Independent

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  • 4 months later...

I've started work on a 2015 scenario and just gave it a run through.

The Torys were being beaten all over the country by the Lib Dems, it was just between Labour and the Lib Dems going into the Election when out of nowhere the Torys came first, Labour second and Lib Dems third. Torys didn't have enough seats to form a majority government so they formed a government with... The Ulster Unionist Party! Very strange, needs more work I think...

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Yeah, the UK version tends to be the most erratic in terms of party support. The Lib Dems often get the most seats in 2005 for example. But I'm glad you're attempting this. The recent UKIP surge has presumably complicated matters somewhat.

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It has made things interesting but I do think that once Labour and The Conservatives review their immigration policies and hopefully bring in something that works, they can tackle the problems of immigration without resorting to discrimination and xenophobia, once they do that I think the UKIP craze will die down again, they are just a one-dimensional anti-EU party. Do they have any other policies?

Which makes it hard to work out which way things might swing in 2015 as it is still too hard to call.

A Labour victory would be nice ;)

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I'm not quite sure what to do with the ConDem coalition, whether to unify them as one party for this scenario or leave them separate. I did mark both as the incumbent party and that hasn't caused the game to break so it seems to work in a way.

I've also added internet campaigning as an ad type as more and more we see the use of Twitter and YouTube and whatever else. I've made it cheaper and more effective than leaflet campaigning on the basis that there is no printing and distribution involved and it can reach a wider audience.

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Some electoral trend advice

Conservative -10

Labour +10

Liberal Democrats -10

UKIP +10

Also I would be willing to help give UKIP a full slate, a seemingly very likely scenario. Great Scenario!

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Some electoral trend advice

Conservative -10

Labour +10

Liberal Democrats -10

UKIP +10

Also I would be willing to help give UKIP a full slate, a seemingly very likely scenario. Great Scenario!

I'm not so sure the UKIP swing would be as high as Labour (though I may be saying that with a little bias as well) but I'll put those numbers in an give it a go. Thanks!

Please send to me too - w.smith405@btinternet.com

Sent!

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The numbers seem to work out to a very likely scenerio based on current polling.

In Scotland I gave the SNP a +10 boost and the labour a -5 in Scotland, gives the SNP 3% nationally and 22 seats.

Nick Clegg deserves an upgrades well. He may not be popular, but being the deputy prime minister should get at least 3 in experience.

The labour need Dave MIlliband, Gordon Brown (Why not? He just be imported from 2010 with a few modifications.)

The conservatives have a good variety of leaders, perhaps Ian Duncan Smith.

The Lib Dems should probably have an alternative leader as I think that it is still a possibility that Nick Clegg will get dropped.

If you want me to start new leader's files, you need only ask.

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If you'd like to help, that would be great!

Though with David Miliband leaving politics I don't think he would be an option and neither would Gordon Brown.

William Hague as a Tory candidate? His charisma would need to be set to 1 as he has an awfully dreary voice ;)

Thank you.

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Good scenario. The percentages and leaders need some editing though.

Percentages should be something like Lab 38, Con 32, LD 14, UKIP 8 (assuming their bubble bursts somewhat in the next two years).

Labour - Ed Miliband's charisma should be no higher than 3, perhaps 2. While intelligent, he doesn't connect with the voters in the same way than Blair or Wilson did. His experience should be 3 and probably leadership and debating too. Harman probably shouldn't be there; she's probably approaching the end of her career (she turns 63 this year). David Miliband would make a good "what-if?" alternative leader. Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umunna are most likely to succeed Miliband (whenever that time may arrive) so their addition would be good.

Conservative - Boris! He should be there as there's been endless speculation about his intentions for about two years. May and Gove have been talked about as challengers from the right of Cameron too.

Liberal Democrats - Vince! For the same reasons as Boris, more or less.

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Sent to all of you!

I'm off work this week so I should be able to get on with a bit more... hopefully.

I think in the version I just sent out it includes (mostly) updated candidate pictures... I think that's about the only change I've made recently.

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Many thanks. Gave it a run through, and here are some observations:

1) Ed Miliband is rather strong! I lowered his charisma to 2 (media perception could have a bad effect) and his stamina to 4. I did raise his debating to 4 though, as he seems rather good at Q&A sessions.

2) Fiddled around with Nick Clegg and David Cameron, slightly tweaking their charisma and experience to reflect electoral perceptions. Nigel Farage was also far too weak, so changed his starting funds to three million and charisma increased to 4.

3) There's a lot to do in constituencies! I could take a few regions if you wanted a lower workload?

4) I like the internet campaigning, that's a nice touch!

Overall, a good solid foundation to the scenario :)

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