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Balancing a scenario


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Hello all,

I am currently working on a 2012 - Expanded scenario, based off the 2008 Expanded one (which is a personal favourite). I have managed to model Gingrich's fall and Santorum's rise through low committed voters and endorsers, but there is a few big problems:

1. The other candidates refuse to drop out before Super Tuesday. I can give Bachmann 0%, lower her money, but to no avail. In my A Giant Sucking Sound scenario, a few candidates drop out before the Iowa Caucus. Which ratings determine this?

2. In the beginning of the scenario, the Republicans drop 10% immediately, giving Obama an 80% chance of winning, even with balancing events. Why is this?

3. Paul gives his voters to Johnson automatically upon withdrawing. Can this be solved without compromising either one's platform too much?

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  • 1 month later...

Glad you like the 2008 Expanded.

1 - I never could get Candidates to drop out early. I eventually decided to take out candidates who didn't make it to Iowa. That decision was made easier by the fact that I was close to the candidate limit, which should not be an issue in 2012. I suspect the problem is that fund raising is relatively easy for larger party candidates (since it's party based rather than individual), so they tend to stick around until they have no chance of winning.

2 - You mean on the first turn? Never heard of that. I would guess that you made the party platform too extreme or made the candidates differ to much from it.

3 - No. I had that problem with the 2008 Expanded with Paul giving votes to Chuck Baldwin and Duncan Hunter giving them to Alan Keyes. I wrote to TheorySpark and they said it was hard coded into the engine. I hope that it is repaired with PF2012. That's the main reason Keyes is off by default in 2008 Expanded. However, if Paul stays in the race long enough it doesn't happen. IIRC, his votes will disperse more normally if he lasts past the end of March.

Sorry I don't have more helpful answers.

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