Russia 2012

[Patine]

I've been working a bit on a Russia 2012 scenario. I'm about two-thirds through the Federal Subjects, (equivalent to states or provinces), all 83 of them, and only currently have place-holder issues. It seems it'll likely be a GE-only scenario, as I can't find any real information on any primaries, nomination conventions, or any such things for any of the parties, and I'm willing to bet a trillion rubles no significant members of Unified Russia or the Liberal Democrats dared challenge Putin or Zhirinovsky, respectively, for those parties' nominations. I need advice on issues, events, and endorsers, if anyone has any ideas. My list of candidates is currently thus:

-Unified Russia - Vladimir Putin

-Communist - Gennady Zyuganov

-Liberal Democratic - Vladimir Zhirinovsky

-A Just Russia - Sergey Miranov

-Independent - Mikhail Prokhorov

-Yabloko Bloc - Grigory Yavlinsky (Off-by-Default)

-Independent - Eduard Limonov (Off-by-Default)

-Independent - Leonid Ivashov (Off-by-Default)

-Independent - Dmitry Mezentsev (Off-by-Default)

-Independent - Nicolai Levashov (Off-by-Default)

The "off-by-default" candidates were rejected for running by the Russian Central Elections Committee and are included for a "what-if" scenario like most P4E scenario off-by-default candidates. There were a few more Independents rejected by the RCEC, but they seem very obscure with little data easily available (at least in English), so I haven't included them.

Any help, comments, or constructive criticism would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

[Red Dog Democrat]

Putin got 90% or something of the Chechnyan vote, LOL

should be fun, but good luck.

[POLLWONK]

Quick note: Only "United Russia" can use TV ads. I think that might also apply to radio ads, but I'm not certain. I do know for sure that only "United Russia" can use the TV.

Also, you might want to add in the protests as a continous news story. It damaged Putin tremendously.

[Patine]

I need some issues now that the Federal Subjects are done. Some I thought of are:

-Chechnya

-China/North Korea

-Cuba/Venezuela

-Death Penalty

-Economy

-EU

-Georgia/South Ossetia

-Iran

-Oil and Gas Reserves

-Organized Crime

-Syria

-Ukraine

-US Relations

More would be appreciated, especially more domestic issues, as that list is foreign policy heavy.

[nikkil]

I like North Korea. We got unlimited issues to create. Just a thought.

[POLLWONK]

I'd probably swap out US Relations and replace it with "NATO". You could address each candidate's position on the expansion of the organization and its influence.

I'd probably swap out Ukraine and replace it with "Eurasian Union", an organization being assembled by Russia. Putin wants to bring back many of the old Soviet nations (including Ukraine) back to the bear.

I might also add in "Arctic Expansion". That region holds a ton of promise and the Russians are extremely ambitious there.

Looks like a fun scenario.

I need some issues now that the Federal Subjects are done. Some I thought of are:

-Chechnya

-China/North Korea

-Cuba/Venezuela

-Death Penalty

-Economy

-EU

-Georgia/South Ossetia

-Iran

-Oil and Gas Reserves

-Organized Crime

-Syria

-Ukraine

-US Relations

More would be appreciated, especially more domestic issues, as that list is foreign policy heavy.

[Repubican]

i think that replace iran to iran/israel should be better.

i suggest also replace cuba/venetsuela with somthing about the protests.

[Repubican]

i think that replace iran to iran/israel should be better.

i suggest also replace cuba/venetsuela with somthing about the protests.

[Patine]

Good issue advice, there. Could anyone make/find me an issue icon for Arctic Expansion? None of the existing ones in any known scenario I have really recommend themselves as such.

[Repubican]

hmm, i'm not understand

English perfectly, so the arctic expansion is the conflict with denmark there?

[POLLWONK]

The Arctic holds untapped amounts of energy resources. Millions of hot market items (minerals and such) are underneath the Arctic. The Arctic also holds a massive amount of untapped oil.

Russia recently planted a flag on the Arctic Seabed, the first exploration mission that reached the north pole seabed in history. They have also constructed more ships capable of breaking through Arctic ice than any country in the world (These ships are referred to as "IceBreakers"). Russia has more than 20 while the US has only 2 icebreakers that are beginning to rust and fall apart.

Currently, Russia is flying planes over Alaskan soil and the Arctic as well as performing military drills in the region. Some critics support the US confronting the Russian advance into the Arctic.

Some accuse Russia of violating international law by occupying neutral territory. Many of these critics charge that the US should attack the Russians over this occupation. The problem with this is that the US hasn't ratified the law of the sea treaty or the "UNCLOS" treaty which Russia signed.

In the end, the Arctic is a massive wealth of energy and other resources. Environmentalists argue against the militarization because it does chop up Arctic ice.

It should be an issue in the campaign.

hmm, i'm not understand

English perfectly, so the arctic expansion is the conflict with denmark there?

[POLLWONK]

I'll research the issue views as well as the issue icon for Arctic Expansion.

Good issue advice, there. Could anyone make/find me an issue icon for Arctic Expansion? None of the existing ones in any known scenario I have really recommend themselves as such.

[Patine]

Here's the stances I came up with right after you suggested Arctic Expansion. Tell me what you think.

<positions>

<position id="far_left">

<name>Far-Left</name>

<description>We need to retract our influence from the Arctic Ocean! The cost economically and politically to maintain a presence is too high!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="left">

<name>Left</name>

<description>We should respect the current oceanic borders in the Arctic Ocean and negotiate mineral claims with the Arctic Council.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center_left">

<name>Center-Left</name>

<description>We should firmly hold our own Arctic territory and be cautious but firm about rights in international waters.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center">

<name>Center</name>

<description>We need to respect maritime borders in the Arctic Ocean, but we should have a fair claim to minerals in its international waters.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center_right">

<name>Center-Right</name>

<description>We need a larger military and mineral exploitation presence in the Arctic before the Western Powers swallow it up.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="right">

<name>Right</name>

<description>We need an aggressive stance in the Arctic Ocean! We must secure it's strategic advantage and the lion's share of it's wealth!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="far_right">

<name>Far-Right</name>

<description>Militarily secure absolute dominance in the Arctic Ocean, and claim it's vast wealth for Mother Russia!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

</positions>

I imagine only Yabloko Bloc and A Just Russia would lean left on this; even the Communists would want a piece of the Arctic pie.

I look forward to seeing what you come up with for an issue icon graphic.

[POLLWONK]

I like those descriptions! I they hit the nail on the head.

If you include "Enivornment" as an issue, you may want to include the destruction of Arctic ice by Russian Icebreaker ships as an issue. Environmentalists oppose the Russians driving their ships through.

The Russian people are generally supportive of the Arctic policy put in place by the Kremlin right now.

Here's the stances I came up with right after you suggested Arctic Expansion. Tell me what you think.

<positions>

<position id="far_left">

<name>Far-Left</name>

<description>We need to retract our influence from the Arctic Ocean! The cost economically and politically to maintain a presence is too high!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="left">

<name>Left</name>

<description>We should respect the current oceanic borders in the Arctic Ocean and negotiate mineral claims with the Arctic Council.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center_left">

<name>Center-Left</name>

<description>We should firmly hold our own Arctic territory and be cautious but firm about rights in international waters.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center">

<name>Center</name>

<description>We need to respect maritime borders in the Arctic Ocean, but we should have a fair claim to minerals in its international waters.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="center_right">

<name>Center-Right</name>

<description>We need a larger military and mineral exploitation presence in the Arctic before the Western Powers swallow it up.</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="right">

<name>Right</name>

<description>We need an aggressive stance in the Arctic Ocean! We must secure it's strategic advantage and the lion's share of it's wealth!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

<position id="far_right">

<name>Far-Right</name>

<description>Militarily secure absolute dominance in the Arctic Ocean, and claim it's vast wealth for Mother Russia!</description>

<fundraising>0</fundraising>

</position>

</positions>

I imagine only Yabloko Bloc and A Just Russia would lean left on this; even the Communists would want a piece of the Arctic pie.

I look forward to seeing what you come up with for an issue icon graphic.

[POLLWONK]

I might also include "Agriculture" as an issue. The wildfires in 2010 damaged a vast amount of Russian farmland. Putin offered financial aid to the farmers, but it didn't do a lot to help.

I might also add in "Corruption" as an issue. There was a actually a story about this... in 2008, a Russian Presidential Candidate gathered the necessary 250,000 signatures to be on the Presidential ballot. His request got rejected. Why? Because the Russian Government claimed that every single signature, INCLUDING the candidate's own signature, was forged. Corruption is a big issue in Russia today.

One final issue I'd throw in would be "Freedoms". Right now, only the United Russia can run telivision ads. No other political party is allowed. The free press in Russia is also going down the tubes. That was one major reason for the protests last year.

Hope this helps!

POLLWONK

I need some issues now that the Federal Subjects are done. Some I thought of are:

-Chechnya

-China/North Korea

-Cuba/Venezuela

-Death Penalty

-Economy

-EU

-Georgia/South Ossetia

-Iran

-Oil and Gas Reserves

-Organized Crime

-Syria

-Ukraine

-US Relations

More would be appreciated, especially more domestic issues, as that list is foreign policy heavy.

[Patine]

I might also include "Agriculture" as an issue. The wildfires in 2010 damaged a vast amount of Russian farmland. Putin offered financial aid to the farmers, but it didn't do a lot to help.

I might also add in "Corruption" as an issue. There was a actually a story about this... in 2008, a Russian Presidential Candidate gathered the necessary 250,000 signatures to be on the Presidential ballot. His request got rejected. Why? Because the Russian Government claimed that every single signature, INCLUDING the candidate's own signature, was forged. Corruption is a big issue in Russia today.

One final issue I'd throw in would be "Freedoms". Right now, only the United Russia can run telivision ads. No other political party is allowed. The free press in Russia is also going down the tubes. That was one major reason for the protests last year.

Hope this helps!

POLLWONK

I'm going to have to make some hard choices, as I'm currently at 18 issues as it stands. I currently have Organized Crime and Human Rights; you suggest including Corruption and Freedoms. Maybe these four issues can be 'remixed' into two broader issues. Any ideas?

As for Environment, I could include such concerns in the left-leaning stances of Arctic Expansion and Oil and Gas Reserves. I'm not sure where to fit Agriculture; maybe somewhere in my Economy issue.

Let me know what you think?

[POLLWONK]

I think that Human Rights is a better alternative than Freedoms. I would probably do Corruption over Organized Crime since Organized Crime is a side effect of corruption.

Agriculture could fit into economy since the droughts were a year ago. The event is kind of old, though the effects are still hitting the economy.

I might also recommend you include under the Economy Issue the Weak Russian Currency (the Ruble has fluxuated in value a lot of the past few years). It has hurt their economy a ton.

Otherwise, it's looking like its coming along well.

I'm going to have to make some hard choices, as I'm currently at 18 issues as it stands. I currently have Organized Crime and Human Rights; you suggest including Corruption and Freedoms. Maybe these four issues can be 'remixed' into two broader issues. Any ideas?

As for Environment, I could include such concerns in the left-leaning stances of Arctic Expansion and Oil and Gas Reserves. I'm not sure where to fit Agriculture; maybe somewhere in my Economy issue.

Let me know what you think?

[nikkil]

I agree. Human Rights have actually numerous effects. Is still have to pin point it.

[Patine]

Update: issues, political units, and ads (including the house rule on human players other than United Russia using televison ads) are done, and I'm almost done the United Russia Party/Vladimir Putin (I only need to finish governors and majorities in regions, which seem to be most of them). Then I'll move onto the Communist Party/Gennady Zyuganov. This one will be a hard one to beat Putin, as he starts leading in every region, but I do think, with scandals and, I guess, newspaper and, possibly, radio ads attacking his Integrity, many regions high in population (and thus EV's in this engine) are contestable; his most solid grips are on very low-population regions.

[POLLWONK]

Here are some ideas for candidate ratings...

United Russia

Vladimir Putin... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Dmitry Medvedev... L-3...I-3...E-4...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-3

Communist

Gennady Zyuganov... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-3...C-3...S-3...D-4

Just some ideas...

Update: issues, political units, and ads (including the house rule on human players other than United Russia using televison ads) are done, and I'm almost done the United Russia Party/Vladimir Putin (I only need to finish governors and majorities in regions, which seem to be most of them). Then I'll move onto the Communist Party/Gennady Zyuganov. This one will be a hard one to beat Putin, as he starts leading in every region, but I do think, with scandals and, I guess, newspaper and, possibly, radio ads attacking his Integrity, many regions high in population (and thus EV's in this engine) are contestable; his most solid grips are on very low-population regions.

[Patine]

Here are some ideas for candidate ratings...

United Russia

Vladimir Putin... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Dmitry Medvedev... L-3...I-3...E-4...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-3

Communist

Gennady Zyuganov... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-3...C-3...S-3...D-4

Just some ideas...

Okay, United Russia and the CPRF are done now, and the scenario is actually technically functional, though there's still quite a bit of work left to do. Next are the infamous Liberal Democrats. Any idea for the Russian fasc - err, nationalist, Zhirinovsky's, attributes?

[POLLWONK]

Liberal Democrats

Zhirinovsky- L-3...I-2...E-3...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-3

Independent

Mikhail Prokhorov... L-4...I-4...E-2...E-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Just Russia

Sergey Mironov... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-2...S-3...D-3

Okay, United Russia and the CPRF are done now, and the scenario is actually technically functional, though there's still quite a bit of work left to do. Next are the infamous Liberal Democrats. Any idea for the Russian fasc - err, nationalist, Zhirinovsky's, attributes?

[Patine]

Liberal Democrats

Zhirinovsky- L-3...I-2...E-3...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-3

Independent

Mikhail Prokhorov... L-4...I-4...E-2...E-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Just Russia

Sergey Mironov... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-2...S-3...D-3

Thanks!

Other than the protests, which would target Putin, any word on any other notable or even hypothetical events?

[POLLWONK]

Every opposing candidate made Putin the focus of their campaigns. It was pretty unanimous among anyone outside of United Russia that Putin had to go.

But we need to look at the reasons why Putin won reelection anyway... Even though the protests were solidly against Putin, the protestors didn't have a uniting ideology or platform to run on. There were Communists, Capitalists, Socialists, and Liberals protesting in Red Square against Putin. They all hated Putin, but their beliefs were too different to unite around one candidate or party. Instead, they united around 4 different candidates who disagreed with each other a lot.

The opposing parties all wanted to make Putin the focus of the campaign, but they were so different in their ideologies and beliefs that it was nearly impossible to build a solid opposition.

Thanks!

Other than the protests, which would target Putin, any word on any other notable or even hypothetical events?

[Patine]

Every opposing candidate made Putin the focus of their campaigns. It was pretty unanimous among anyone outside of United Russia that Putin had to go.

But we need to look at the reasons why Putin won reelection anyway... Even though the protests were solidly against Putin, the protestors didn't have a uniting ideology or platform to run on. There were Communists, Capitalists, Socialists, and Liberals protesting in Red Square against Putin. They all hated Putin, but their beliefs were too different to unite around one candidate or party. Instead, they united around 4 different candidates who disagreed with each other a lot.

The opposing parties all wanted to make Putin the focus of the campaign, but they were so different in their ideologies and beliefs that it was nearly impossible to build a solid opposition.

Good point.

I'm done the parties and candidates now, including five off-by-default candidates who in the RW were rejected by the CEC for various reasons (some of which may have been trumped up): they include Yabloko and four of the Independents (the ones on whom I could find solid data in English). It's starting to look like beating Putin for any of his opponents will take a real giantkiller player. Now I need some good endorsers; only one is mentioned in the Wikipedia article on the election, and they endorsed Putin. Any ideas, anyone?