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Post II: French Presidential Election 2012


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This is the second topic addressing the French 2012 scenario I am creating for Prez4E2008 engine. I am have completed all the way up until Step 6. I need help on Events, Endorsers, and Activities. (my thanks to Patine for volunteering with the events)

Here is the list of candidates so far...

Socialist

Francois Hollande ... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Martine Aubry... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-3

Segolene Royal... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-3...C-5...S-3...D-2

Dominique Strauss Kahn (OFF)... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

(Note: there are other candidates who might get included if I have enough time, but due to their lack of consequence in the Socialist Primary are exempt for now)

Union for a Popular Movement

Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-3...S-3...D-5

Xavier Berterrand (OFF)...L-3...I-4...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou... L-3...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

National Front

Marine Le Pen... L-4....I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Left Front

Jean-Luc Melenchon... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

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This is the second topic addressing the French 2012 scenario I am creating for Prez4E2008 engine. I am have completed all the way up until Step 6. I need help on Events, Endorsers, and Activities. (my thanks to Patine for volunteering with the events)

Here is the list of candidates so far...

Socialist

Francois Hollande ... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Martine Aubry... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-3

Segolene Royal... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-3...C-5...S-3...D-2

Dominique Strauss Kahn (OFF)... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

(Note: there are other candidates who might get included if I have enough time, but due to their lack of consequence in the Socialist Primary are exempt for now)

Union for a Popular Movement

Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-3...S-3...D-5

Xavier Berterrand (OFF)...L-3...I-4...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou... L-3...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

National Front

Marine Le Pen... L-4....I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Left Front

Jean-Luc Melenchon... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

Naffissatou Diallo pressed charges against Strauss-Kahn on May 14, 2011. He was indicted May 19, 2011. Charges were dismissed August 23, 2011. As of March 26, 2012, he is being investigated (though not formally charged) with complicity in a prostitution ring in the city of Lille.

The shooting of three Jewish students and a rabbi at a Jewish city in Toulouse was March 19, 2012. The shooter, Mohammed Merah, who claimed the killings were done in the 'name of Al Qaeda, surrendered to authorities two days later.

Anything else you need?

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That really helps. Could you also find the date that the French Credit Rating was downgraded and some other EU stuff? That would probably be all I need.

Again, a huge thank you!

Naffissatou Diallo pressed charges against Strauss-Kahn on May 14, 2011. He was indicted May 19, 2011. Charges were dismissed August 23, 2011. As of March 26, 2012, he is being investigated (though not formally charged) with complicity in a prostitution ring in the city of Lille.

The shooting of three Jewish students and a rabbi at a Jewish city in Toulouse was March 19, 2012. The shooter, Mohammed Merah, who claimed the killings were done in the 'name of Al Qaeda, surrendered to authorities two days later.

Anything else you need?

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Debating stats:

I would raise Marine Le Pen +1 to 4

Jean-Luc Melenchon +1 to 5

Francois Bayrou -1 to 3

Endorsers:

Pressure group type organizations don't really play much of a role in French elections (or at least they're not visible). I'd go with newspapers and other politicians/celebrities.

Le Journal du Dimanche / Center / Undecided

Le Parisien / Center / Undecided

Le Figaro / Center-Right / Decided Sarkozy

Le Monde / Center-Left / Leaning Hollande/Socialist

L'Equipe / Center / Undecided

Les Echos / Center-Right\Business tax / Undecided

Liberation / Center-Left / Leaning Hollande/Socialist

La Croix / Center / Undecided

La Tribune / Center-Right\Business Tax / Undecided

L'Humanite / Left / Decided Melenchon/Front de Gauche

Magazines:

L'Express / Center-Right / Undecided

Le Point / Center-Left / Undecided

Valeurs Actuelles / Center-Right / Decided Sarkozy

Le Nouvel Observateur / Center-Left / Leaning Hollande/Socialist

Marianne / Left / Leaning Melenchon/Front de Gauche

Challenges / Center\Business tax / Leaning Sarkozy

Paris Match / Center / Undecided (anti-DSK)

Satirical/scandal papers (influential but not sure if they actually endorse)

Charlie Hebdo / Center-Left / Leaning Hollande/Socialist

Le Canard Enchaine / Center

Websites/Blogs:

Rue89 / Center-Left / Undecided

Mediapart / Center-Left / Undecided

Le Post / Center-Left / Leaning Hollande/Socialist

Atlantico / Right / Decided Sarkozy

Agoravox / Center / Undecided (not really centrist, angry people, probably split far-left or far-right... maybe skip)

fdesouche.com / Far-Right\Islam / Undecided

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Politicians by who they lean toward. Some would be failed primary candidates, should they be included? (could set them to have strongest preference for themselves if they are still in the game, if they lost the primary it won't matter)

Sarkozy:

Jean-Louis Borloo / Center / Leaning

Christine Boutin / Right\Social Issues, Center-Left\Environment / Leaning

Alain Juppe / Center-Right / Decided (he was seen as the alternative, his 'endorsement' was not entering the race)

Herve Morin / Center / Leaning

Frederic Nihous / Hunting/Rural issues / Leaning

Celebs (no clue what their issues are, if they have any - Centrist by default)

Gerard Depardieu

Jean Reno

Christian Clavier

Enrico Macias

Ingrid Bettencourt

Johnny Hallyday

Nadine Trintignant

Claude LeLouch

Socialist:

Martine Aubry / Far-Left on 35-hour week / Decided

Arnaud Montebourg / Left\Globalization / Decided

Segolene Royale / Left\Taxes / Decided

Manuel Valls / Center / Decided

Jean-Michel Baylet / Center-Left / Decided Socialist (he isn't but his party is basically owned by them)

Jean-Pierre Chevenement / Sovereignty\Right / Leaning

Corinne Lepage / Environment\Left / Leaning

Celebs

Yannick Noah

Thierry Rey

Gerald Dahan

Jane Birkin

Jean-Michel Ribos

Charles Berling

Front de Gauche:

Pierre Laurent

Jacques Sapir

Leila Chaibi

Oskar Lafontaine

Celebs

Gerard Miller

Anemone

Guy Bedos

Yvan le Bolloc'h

Michel Onfray

Regis Debray

Jacques Weber

Front National:

Gilbert Collard

Jacques Clostermann

Denis Seznec

Michel Ciardi

Bertrand Dutheil

Paul-Marie Couteaux

Renaud Camus

Celebs

Brigitte Bardot

Green: (listing Joly's party colleagues because they haven't been all that supportive, getting their 'endorsement' would be just getting them to campaign for you)

Daniel Cohn-Bendit / Europe\Left / Leaning

Cecile Duflot / Left / Decided

Nicolas Hulot / Center / Decided

Bayrou:

Jean Arthuis

Philippe Douste-Blazy

Jean Francois Probst

Pierre Albertini

Celebs

None

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Francois Asselineau / Europe\Right / Leaning? (not sure he would endorse anyone but can't think of any other potential endorsers)

NPA

Georges Moustaki

OTHERS - all hypothetical since they haven't endorsed in reality

Miscellaneous (undecided) right

Gilles Bourdouleix / Center-Right (not sure who this guy is but he is an MP and withdrawn candidate, and his party have elected mayors and councilors)

Miscellaneous (undecided) center

Jean-Marc Governatori / Environment\Left (another withdrawn candidate)

Miscellaneous left

Eric Cantona / Banks\Far-Left (threatened to run.. make it so he starts late so might not endorse before the election) (if he did endorse I guess it would be Melenchon)

Miscellaneous celebs

Jean Dujardin ('The Artist' actor - apparently both Sarkozy and Hollande tried hard to woo him)

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The above would be for the General election campaign.

For the primaries it would be politicians from your own party. Once you've won a primary you can assume they all support you.

If it was useful I could try to list some of the more significant primaries endorsers. Eg Socialist party 'elephants' (Fabius, Lang, Emmanuelli, Delanoe etc) and their various rivalries and positions.

Also, would you want to include people who 'might' have endorsed even though they haven't? Chirac is the big one I'm thinking about here.

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Yeah, I'll include Montebourg. Any candidate rating ideas for him?

My judgement

L 3

I 4

E 3

IF 3

C 3

S 3

D 2

Basically he is quite average, except he has a reputation as this holier-than-thou guy. He called for investigations into corruption in a regional branch of the Socialist party, which made him some enemies. However that also makes him pompous and long-winded hence the worse debate stat.

I think his strengths would be his issues positions. I think his 'establishment' should be low, give him a 1 because he doesn't have a network or allies. Valls has less popular positions but has the DSK network

Valls: 3 for all his stats, he's unremarkable

Here are some party establishment stats for the socialists:

Aubry: 4 (she definitely had the edge there)

Hollande: 3

Royale: 3

Valls: 2

Montebourg: 1

Baylet: 1 (you may want to exclude him, he got 2%)

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Just noticed this!

Here is the list of candidates so far...

Socialist

Francois Hollande ... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Typo? Surely this should be a 2? The guy is likable but Charisma determines whether your speeches makes the news, and you get enthusiastic crowds at your rallies. Not exactly Hollande's strength.

I'd knock Leadership down to 3 as well. If you need to make him stronger perhaps raise I to 4, though he's more like a 3.5 (clean by Socialist party standards, but would not sacrifice himself for principle either)

Bold where changed:

Union for a Popular Movement

Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-3...D-5

Xavier Berterrand (OFF)...L-3...I-4...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-3

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou... L-3...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-2...S-4...D-3

National Front

Marine Le Pen... L-4....I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-4

Left Front

Jean-Luc Melenchon... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-5

I agree with the rest of the stats.

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The scenario is finished. Since I still haven't gotten my request for an scenario author's page on the scenarios website, I will be taking email requests for the scenario until the 270admin activates my page.

Otherwise, the scenario is finished!

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The final edition will be released in a few days. Since the Presidents Forever Engine has an election model structured differently than French Politics, it would be impossible to install a run off election.

Will there be a Round 2 version made?

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The Final Edition for the French Presidential Election 2012 will be released before the runoff election on the 6th of May. I'm right now changing the candidate ratings a bit, adding crusaders, and researching third party candidates. I'm also going to be looking at ways to weaken Sarkozy without denying his political abilities.

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