Walker Recall

[ellchicago 353]

Hey guys, I was wondering what your thoughts were of the recall is Wisconsin.

Personally I think Walker will win against Barrett and Feingold will run 2014 and ultimately win. http://current.com/shows/the-young-turks/videos/russ-feingold-polls-well-against-wisc-gov-walker-but-hes-not-running-for-office-in-next-2-years

Here is some analysis and polls from PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/close-race-in-the-wisconsin-recall.html

"There is one potential Democratic candidate who would have a sizeable lead if he changed his mind about running in the recall election, and that's Russ Feingold. Feingold would start out with a 52-45 advantage over Walker, including a 57-39 lead with independents. His 2010 loss seems to have softened feelings toward Feingold in Wisconsin. He now has a 55% favorability rating, with only 36% of voters seeing him negatively. That's better than his numbers ever were last cycle."

"Recalling Scott Walker is still not going to be easy for Democrats. Based on what we saw last summer I'd say that a tie in the polls probably ultimately means a win for the incumbent. But Barrett and Falk's chances are at least looking better than they did four months ago...and if Feingold could be coaxed to change his mind he'd be the clear favorite."

Wisconsin voters are split down the middle in terms of whether to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 49%-49%, but a closer look at prospective matchups suggests that Walker is headed for the battle of his political life to survive a recall challenge. Walker’s approval rating sits at 47% approval and 52% disapproval.

"With the exception of former Senator Russ Feingold, who would beat Walker 52-45, Walker either wins or loses to a slate of prospective challengers by +/- 3% points. The kicker is that many of Walker’s prospective opponents are far less known than he is, suggesting his challengers may make up even more ground as the electorate gets to know them. Mayor of Milwaukee Tom Barrett is leading Walker 49-46, with a favorability rating of 41/33 and 27% of voters not sure about him. Kathleen Falk leads Walker 48-47, with a 31/42 favorability rating and 27% of voters not sure about her. Walker leads former Congressman David Obey, 47-45, but 43% of voters don’t know enough about Obey to register an opinion on his favorability one way or the other. Similarly, Walker leads Jon Erpenbach 47-44, but 59% aren’t sure about Erpenbach. The same is true of Peter Barca (Walker wins 48-46, but 57% don’t know Barca), Ron Kind (Kind wins 46-45 despite 57% of voters not sure about him), Doug LaFollette (Walker beats him 46-45 with 49% of voters not sure about him), and Kathleen Vinehout - Walker beats her 46-44 with a full 60% of voters not knowing enough about Vinehout to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her.

“These are the most encouraging numbers we’ve found for Democrats in Wisconsin related to the Walker recall since last August,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Walker’s numbers had been seeing some recovery, but now it appears they’ve turned back in the wrong direction. The big question now is whether Democrats can find a candidate to take advantage of Walker’s vulnerability.”

In the Democratic primary to decide who will face Walker, Tom Barrett takes 45% to Falk’s 18%, LaFollette’s 14%, Vinehout’s 6% and 17% undecided. In a Barrett-less field, Falk gets 41%, LaFollette 23%, Vinehout 13% and 22% undecided." http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/walker-faces-fight-of-his-life-in-wisconsin-recall-election-.html

[nikkil 46]

Anyone else seeing this? I think Feingold would get it due to his current accomplishments. Just a thought tho.

[ellchicago 353]

Anyone else seeing this? I think Feingold would get it due to his current accomplishments. Just a thought tho.

If Feingold ran, he would most likely win...

[jaminup93 8]

Feingold won't run in the recall since Walker's approval ratings have mellowed out recently. He'll run in 2014 though against Walker when he;s more vulnerable again.

[Quebec_Dave 4]

I think that Tom Barrett will win the recall primary. Barrett still has name recognition due to being mayor of Milwaukee and his 2010 gubernatorial run.

Kathleen Falk has some residual name recognition from her 2002 run and 2006 Attorney General campaign and she has been on the airwaves. This will allow her to place in double digits.

Doug LaFollette is the long-time Secretary of State. He is a septuagenarian, hasn't raised much money and will likely perform poorly due to voters voting tactically between Barrett and Falk. He has probably won his races for Secretary of State due to the LaFollette name and little attention paid to the office. Unlike most states, the Secretary of State in Wisconsin has zero authority over elections. That responsibility falls to the Government Accountability Board.

As for Vineout, she is a little-known state senator and cannot even get the women's vote as that will go to Falk. There is little niche for her in the race at this time. This race was probably a name building exercise for a future run. If not, and she actually ran to win, she is utterly delusional.

[Quebec_Dave 4]

Feingold won't run in the recall since Walker's approval ratings have mellowed out recently. He'll run in 2014 though against Walker when he;s more vulnerable again.

I recall recently reading that there are a significant percentage of voters, including Democrats, that are opposed to recalls in principle which explains, at least partially, Walker's standing in head-to-heads.

If this is indeed the case, Walker could start with a built in advantage requiring 52% favouring the Democratic nominee in order to neutralise the anti-Walker/anti-recall voters.

Of course, would the anti-Walker/anti-Walker voters end up boycotting the voting? Also, the recall format is different than the famous 2003 California recall. In California, the recall and special election were two separate issues. In Wisconsin, the recall takes the form of a straight up election. Could some of the anti-Walker/anti-recall voters end up voting for the Democratic nominee (likely Barrett) when they see the ballot?

[ellchicago 353]

I recall recently reading that there are a significant percentage of voters, including Democrats, that are opposed to recalls in principle which explains, at least partially, Walker's standing in head-to-heads.

If this is indeed the case, Walker could start with a built in advantage requiring 52% favouring the Democratic nominee in order to neutralise the anti-Walker/anti-recall voters.

Of course, would the anti-Walker/anti-Walker voters end up boycotting the voting? Also, the recall format is different than the famous 2003 California recall. In California, the recall and special election were two separate issues. In Wisconsin, the recall takes the form of a straight up election. Could some of the anti-Walker/anti-recall voters end up voting for the Democratic nominee (likely Barrett) when they see the ballot?

Feingold could have won this race...

"There is one potential Democratic candidate who would have a sizeable lead if he changed his mind about running in the recall election, and that's Russ Feingold. Feingold would start out with a 52-45 advantage over Walker, including a 57-39 lead with independents. His 2010 loss seems to have softened feelings toward Feingold in Wisconsin. He now has a 55% favorability rating, with only 36% of voters seeing him negatively. That's better than his numbers ever were last cycle." http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/close-race-in-the-wisconsin-recall.html

[ellchicago 353]

I think that Tom Barrett will win the recall primary. Barrett still has name recognition due to being mayor of Milwaukee and his 2010 gubernatorial run.

Kathleen Falk has some residual name recognition from her 2002 run and 2006 Attorney General campaign and she has been on the airwaves. This will allow her to place in double digits.

Doug LaFollette is the long-time Secretary of State. He is a septuagenarian, hasn't raised much money and will likely perform poorly due to voters voting tactically between Barrett and Falk. He has probably won his races for Secretary of State due to the LaFollette name and little attention paid to the office. Unlike most states, the Secretary of State in Wisconsin has zero authority over elections. That responsibility falls to the Government Accountability Board.

As for Vineout, she is a little-known state senator and cannot even get the women's vote as that will go to Falk. There is little niche for her in the race at this time. This race was probably a name building exercise for a future run. If not, and she actually ran to win, she is utterly delusional.

Tom Barrett will probably win the nomination, but Kathleen Falk has more union support in Wisconsin. I like Falk better than Barrett, but Falk is weaker state-wide than Barrett. Barrett is also a weak candidate. This makes me pessimistic about recalling Walker.

[POLLWONK 375]

I would agree that Falk has more of the union support. While I agree that Barret will probably win the nomination, you can't rule out that a Falk upset (considering the Unions will probably get out the vote for her).

Right now, Walker probably has a 66% chance of winning the recall.

Tom Barrett will probably win the nomination, but Kathleen Falk has more union support in Wisconsin. I like Falk better than Barrett, but Falk is weaker state-wide than Barrett. Barrett is also a weak candidate. This makes me pessimistic about recalling Walker.