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Scenario: French Presidential Election 2012


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I decided to make a scenario for the French 2012 Presidential Election. I hope to have it up at the earliest April 22, the latest May 6...

I am about halfway done. I am currently researching information on the voting trends of the French districts.

I could use some input on the candidate list... this is what I have so far, but I could use some help here...

My candidate list...

Socialist...

Francois Hollande... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Martine Aubry... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

Segolene Royal... L-4...I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-5...D-2

Arnaud Montebourg... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Manuel Valls... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-3

Dominque Strauss Kahn (off) ... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-3...D-3

UMP

Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-5

Alain Juppe... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-4

Any additional help would be greatly appreciated!!!

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I decided to make a scenario for the French 2012 Presidential Election. I hope to have it up at the earliest April 22, the latest May 6...

I am about halfway done. I am currently researching information on the voting trends of the French districts.

I could use some input on the candidate list... this is what I have so far, but I could use some help here...

My candidate list...

Socialist...

Francois Hollande... L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Martine Aubry... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-4

Segolene Royal... L-4...I-3...E-3...IF-3...C-4...S-5...D-2

Arnaud Montebourg... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Manuel Valls... L-3...I-3...E-2...IF-3...C-3...S-4...D-3

Dominque Strauss Kahn (off) ... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-3...C-4...S-3...D-3

UMP

Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-4

Alain Juppe... L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-4

Any additional help would be greatly appreciated!!!

Are you planning on only having the UMP and Socialists, or might you also have other parties, like the FN?

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Yeah, must have been a glitch... aparently some overtly bored person couldn't resist giving red reputation marks on our posts... maybe he should volunteer to help out with this scenario instead of being a nutjob with the reputation button.

Yeah, I am going to include the following parties...

Union for Movement Popular

Socialist

Democratic Movement

Left Front

National Front

The obvious candidates are...

UMP:

President Nicolas Sarkozy

Xavier Bertrand (off)

Socialist

Francois Hollande

Martine Aubry

Segolene Royal

Arnaud Montebourg

Manuel Valls

Jean Michel Baylet

Dominique Strauss Kahn (off)

Laurent Fabius (off)

Henri Emmanuelli (off)

National Front

Marine Le Pen

Jean Marie Le Pen (off)

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou

Jean Arthuis (off)

Left Front

Jean Luc Melenchon

Helene Franco

Any help with candidate ratings would be appreciated! :D

Is that some kind of glytch or error, POLLWONK?

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Yeah, must have been a glitch... aparently some overtly bored person couldn't resist giving red reputation marks on our posts... maybe he should volunteer to help out with this scenario instead of being a nutjob with the reputation button.

Yeah, I am going to include the following parties...

Union for Movement Popular

Socialist

Democratic Movement

Left Front

National Front

The obvious candidates are...

UMP:

President Nicolas Sarkozy

Xavier Bertrand (off)

Socialist

Francois Hollande

Martine Aubry

Segolene Royal

Arnaud Montebourg

Manuel Valls

Jean Michel Baylet

Dominique Strauss Kahn (off)

Laurent Fabius (off)

Henri Emmanuelli (off)

National Front

Marine Le Pen

Jean Marie Le Pen (off)

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou

Jean Arthuis (off)

Left Front

Jean Luc Melenchon

Helene Franco

Any help with candidate ratings would be appreciated! :D

I'd give Strauss-Kahn a low Integrity, but that's coming from a North American perspective. I'm not really sure how he's viewed in France.

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I think his reputation has been tarnished badly by the scandal. I think i'd put him with a "2" for integrity and put in some events that would harm his momentum significanlty.

Any other suggestions? You make awesome scenarios so I appreciate the imput!

I'd give Strauss-Kahn a low Integrity, but that's coming from a North American perspective. I'm not really sure how he's viewed in France.

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I think his reputation has been tarnished badly by the scandal. I think i'd put him with a "2" for integrity and put in some events that would harm his momentum significanlty.

Any other suggestions? You make awesome scenarios so I appreciate the imput!

I agree with a low integrity and momentum-hurting events, but I'd still give him high funds and PIP's, and a high "how well established" score, as he's still a man of strong connections and establishment.

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Here is my Issue List so far...

Budget

Educaton

Energy

Environment

European Union

Gun Control

Healthcare

Burqa Ban

Defense Spending

Iran

Libya

Military Intervention

Role of Government

Syria

Tax Rates

Retirement Age

Unions

I think that I may replace Unions, Healthcare, and Iran.

Any recommendations? :D

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i think you should add "war on terror", because of the ugly attack of the terrorist on the school in thuluz and on the French soliders.

It is will be really big issue in that election.

Maby you can made an issue of "einvorment and energy" and delete the both issues for add the "war on terror".

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I'd suggest these. The War on Terror shouldn't be much of an issue except as part of US relatins.

Banking Policy

Constitution

Corporate Responsibility

Economy

Education

Energy

Environment

Financial Crisis

Europe

Healthcare

Immigration

Internal Security

Islam

Jobs (labor/union rights like as in Germany)

Military Intervention

Social Security

Tax and Budget

US Relations

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but now, after that terrorist that kill the Jewish kids and the French soliders, i think this is gonna get hoter issue.

you know, USA is not the only country that fight against terror- and to made this as a part of US relations is realy not relevant.

and the Burqa Ban is an issue that many candidates gonna use against Nicolas Sarkozy, and already use now.

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Okay... here's the revised issue list

Tax and Budgets

Credit Rating

Educaton

Environment and Energy

European Union

Islam

Internal Security

War in Afghanisan

Free Trade

Immigration

Defense Spending

Iran

Arab Spring (Syria, Libya)

NATO

Role of Government

Tax Rates

Retirement Age

Israel-Palestine

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Here is the revised candidate ratings...

UMP:

President Nicolas Sarkozy... L-4...I-3...E-5...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-5

Xavier Bertrand (off)... L-4...I-3...E-3...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-3

Socialist

Francois Hollande...L-4...I-3...E-2...IF-3...C-4...S-4...D-4

Martine Aubry...L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-4...C-3...S-4...D-3

Segolene Royal...L-3...I-3...E-4...IF-4...C-4...S-3...D-1

Arnaud Montebourg... TBD

Manuel Valls... TBD

Jean Michel Baylet... TBD

Dominique Strauss Kahn (off)... L-4...I-2...E-5...IF-4...C-2...S-3...D-5

Laurent Fabius (off)... TBD

Henri Emmanuelli (off)... TBD

National Front

Marine Le Pen... L-3...I-4...E-3...IF-4...C-4...S-4...D-3

Jean Marie Le Pen (off)...L-4...I-4...E-4...IF-3...C-2...S-2...D-3

Democratic Movement

Francois Bayrou... L-4...I-3...E-4...IF-5...C-4...S-5...D-3

Jean Arthuis (off)...L-3...I-4...E-2...IF-3...C-5...S-3...D-3

Left Front

Jean Luc Melenchon... TBD

Helene Franco... TBD

Any help would be appreciated with the ratings! I need some feedback.

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Update:

I am wrapping up the parties and I am going to be moving onto events and ads.

I could still use some recommendations on the candidates. That is a big necessity.

I want to include as many parties as possible, but it will be hard to fit them all. I'm probably going with UMP, Socialist, FN, Democratic Movement, and Left Front.

Any help with the events, candidates, etc would be much appreciated! :D

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Good point. But we also have to remember that Sarkozy actually saw his poll numbers rise after the shootings from a ten point deficit to a six point deficit.

I will include that though. :D

but now, after that terrorist that kill the Jewish kids and the French soliders, i think this is gonna get hoter issue.

you know, USA is not the only country that fight against terror- and to made this as a part of US relations is realy not relevant.

and the Burqa Ban is an issue that many candidates gonna use against Nicolas Sarkozy, and already use now.

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