Republican Primary Contests before Super Tuesday

[ellchicago 353]

...hmm... how do I take this?... Let's just say i am not a fan of the TV Show "West Wing" and I don't intend to spin around three times while releasing saliva and profanities...

Romney is still favored to win Michigan.

Still favored to win and winning is two entirely things, but that is correct statement.

[ellchicago 353]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-supporter-mitt-could-win-by-losing#HTWF2

Assuming that those internals are right and Saul Anuzis is not lying, I call that a win. "Based on the campaign's internal data, Anuzis said Romney will win between 10 and 12 of those districts — scoring at least 20-24 of the state's 30 delegates — while Santorum may win the rest."

[ellchicago 353]

PPP: "Romney leads among Republicans in Michigan. It's Democrats putting Santorum over the top. We'll see if they really show up..."

[POLLWONK 375]

Romney won Arizona and Michigan.

[ellchicago 353]

Romney won Arizona and Michigan.

Last night was a big night for Romney, he halted Santorum's momentum and gained back his momemtum for Super Tuesday.

[POLLWONK 375]

Romney is right now in a similar position that John McCain experienced in 2008. McCain was the frontrunner and favorite with Huckabee as the darkhorse. Romney right now is the frontrunner with Santorum playing the darkhorse. Santorum will probably win a few more states, but Romney will carry the nomination.

[ellchicago 353]

Romney is right now in a similar position that John McCain experienced in 2008. McCain was the frontrunner and favorite with Huckabee as the darkhorse. Romney right now is the frontrunner with Santorum playing the darkhorse. Santorum will probably win a few more states, but Romney will carry the nomination.

John McCain lost 19 contests in 2008, Romney has lost 3, so far...

[ellchicago 353]

I wouldn't be so sure... the last thing Obama wants is a war involving the US Military during election season. Also, it would go against his own logic if he used military action against Iran. If the State Department, the Department of Defense, and the FBI have concluded that Iran isn't developing a nuke, why would he put US Troops in there or even a bombing campaign? Our intelligence has only stated that Iran has enough uranium to make a bomb in five years, yet little to zero action has been taken towards constructing a nuke.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like Iran. Iran's leader Ahmadinejad is a nutjob's version of a nutjob. What i'm saying is that Obama probably won't throw himself into a future Iranian-Israeli conflict, like you were saying. He will probably try some bombings, but nothing more.

Politically, it would be stupid for Obama to deploy troops. A Democrat (probably Kucinich, maybe Dean or Feingold) would run third party on him in protest of the war, arguing that Obama was advocating the Bush Doctrine. It is the LAST thing Americans want right now, a war with iran.

Dean would probably run as a third party. Dean would soldly get the Progressive and anti-war vote.

[POLLWONK 375]

Kucinich would probably run. He has gotten a little angry with Obama's foreign policy as of late.

Dean would be hard to get off the bench, but could be convinced. His biggest issue is that people still remember the "DEAN SCREAM". Dean of course would have to ask himself the question: "Do I run 3rd Party and virtually assure the election of the Republican nominee?" It will be an interesting qquestion.

I think that since his new book is coming out, there will be a demand for a Russ Feingold candidacy should Obama use military force alongside Israel against Ahmadinejad. I don't think Russ Feingold will run since he is the early favorite to win the Governorship in Wisconsin in 2014. Walker will probably survive the recount, but will be severely damaged. Feingold was arguably the Labour Unions best man in the Senate. Feingold could easily mount a political comback by winning the Governship in 2014 and preparing a possible Presidential bid in 2016 or 2020 if he has such ambitions.

Dean would probably run as a third party. Dean would soldly get the Progressive and anti-war vote.

[ellchicago 353]

Kucinich would probably run. He has gotten a little angry with Obama's foreign policy as of late.

Dean would be hard to get off the bench, but could be convinced. His biggest issue is that people still remember the "DEAN SCREAM". Dean of course would have to ask himself the question: "Do I run 3rd Party and virtually assure the election of the Republican nominee?" It will be an interesting qquestion.

I think that since his new book is coming out, there will be a demand for a Russ Feingold candidacy should Obama use military force alongside Israel against Ahmadinejad. I don't think Russ Feingold will run since he is the early favorite to win the Governorship in Wisconsin in 2014. Walker will probably survive the recount, but will be severely damaged. Feingold was arguably the Labour Unions best man in the Senate. Feingold could easily mount a political comback by winning the Governship in 2014 and preparing a possible Presidential bid in 2016 or 2020 if he has such ambitions.

Kucinich won't run, but Feingold will most likely run for governor in 2014 because he wants to make money off of his book before he runs for office again. Feingold is the only person who could defeat Governor Walker. So the Wisconsin governor recall is waste of time, money, and effort in my option.

[Jayavarman 130]

Romney will likely win the most delegates this Super Tuesday, but the message of the night will probably be centered on who wins Ohio.

A secondary story may be about Gingrich, and whether he still has second or first place support in any states outside of Georgia.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[Quebec_Dave 4]

John McCain lost 19 contests in 2008, Romney has lost 3, so far...

Actually, Romney has lost five contests thus far:

1) Iowa cauci

2) South Carolina primary

3) Colorado cauci

4) Missouri primary (albeit zero delegates at stake)

5) Minnesota cauci

[Quebec_Dave 4]

Dean would probably run as a third party. Dean would soldly get the Progressive and anti-war vote.

Should Obama foolishly decide to invade Iran, I think in an Obama vs. Romney vs. Dean matchup, Obama might finish third in the popular and/or electoral vote. The way I see it, the base abandons him for Dean, independents abandon him for starting another war and the resulting economic shock and the people who actually want a war wouldn't support him under any circumstances.

It could easily end up as the worst defeat for an incumbent president since William Howard Taft in 1912.

[Quebec_Dave 4]

Kucinich won't run, but Feingold will most likely run for governor in 2014 because he wants to make money off of his book before he runs for office again. Feingold is the only person who could defeat Governor Walker. So the Wisconsin governor recall is waste of time, money, and effort in my option.

Kucinich has a tough primary against Marcy Kaptur on Tuesday. If he were to be defeated, it is easy to see him considered to be politically 'dead' and a run wouldn't have the same 'oomph' that it would if he were an actual congressman seeking re-election. It would be seen as an act of pique from a sore loser. His impact would be more like Nader in 2008 than the Nader of 2000.

If Kucinich wins the primary, he might want to shore up his strength in the Akron portions of his new district. I'm unsure if Ohio election law allows a person to run for two offices in the general election. I know that Kucinich ran for re-election and filed his candidacy papers for his House seat and for president in both 2004 and 2008. The rules for a general election could be different though.

Feingold probably wouldn't run. However, if he were pissed off enough, he might. Doing so would completely destroy his future political prospects, though. If he were content to spend the rest of his life on the earnings from writing books, book tours and speaking the progressive groups, he could go for it. However, it is very, very unlikely. Also, the fact he lost his re-election bid in 2010 hurts his credibility as well. Obama's campaign could spin his decision to run by someone with nothing to lose. After all, without his Senate seat, there are no committee slots or potential leadership aspirations to throw away.

[Quebec_Dave 4]

Romney will likely win the most delegates this Super Tuesday, but the message of the night will probably be centered on who wins Ohio.

A secondary story may be about Gingrich, and whether he still has second or first place support in any states outside of Georgia.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

I think the future of the contest revolves around Ohio. If Santorum wins Ohio, the contest will continue on and Santorum might get another shot of momentum. If Romney eeks out a win, the contest is basically over barring a major scandal.

I think Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Vermont and Virginia.

I think Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee.

I think Gingrich wins Georgia.

Alaska is a toss-up between Paul and Romney. Ohio is a toss-up between Santorum and Romney.

Romney's win in Idaho provides no momentum because it is has the second highest LDS population in the United States and they will be out in force for him. Massachusetts also won't provide momentum as it is his state of residence and where he served as governor. North Dakota is over looked during the night so doesn't matter much either way. Vermont is in New England and has similar demographics to New Hampshire. A win here is already baked into the equation. Without Santorum or Gingrich on the ballot in Virginia, the state is basically written off as a Romney shoo-in.

Santorum's likely wins in Oklahoma and Tennessee won't provide much (if any) momentum because they are rural and evangelical and the sort of states that Romney has performed poorly in. Also, compared to Romney's likely five wins above, their impact would be dwarfed.

Gingrich's win in Georgia is a must. Winning it allows him to limp on. Losing it kills his candidacy dead.

Alaska will only be noticed beyond an afterthought if Paul has his first victory there. Even then, it wouldn't provide him all that much momentum. Same thing with Romney.

Super Tuesday basically boils down to Ohio. It is the only major contest not baked in as an expected Romney, Santorum or Gingrich victory. Romney winning gives him an incredible amount of momentum (something like a +20 momentum boost in P4E) while a Santorum victory gives him crucial momentum to continue on in Saturday's Kansas caucus, the following week's Alabama and Mississippi primaries and the Missouri cauci (the one that actually matters).

[ellchicago 353]

Actually, Romney has lost five contests thus far:

1) Iowa cauci

2) South Carolina primary

3) Colorado cauci

4) Missouri primary (albeit zero delegates at stake)

5) Minnesota cauci

I meant to say 4 contests

1) Iowa

2) South Carolina

3) Colorado

4) Minnesota

[ellchicago 353]

I think the future of the contest revolves around Ohio. If Santorum wins Ohio, the contest will continue on and Santorum might get another shot of momentum. If Romney eeks out a win, the contest is basically over barring a major scandal.

I think Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Vermont and Virginia.

I think Santorum wins Oklahoma and Tennessee.

I think Gingrich wins Georgia.

Alaska is a toss-up between Paul and Romney. Ohio is a toss-up between Santorum and Romney.

Romney's win in Idaho provides no momentum because it is has the second highest LDS population in the United States and they will be out in force for him. Massachusetts also won't provide momentum as it is his state of residence and where he served as governor. North Dakota is over looked during the night so doesn't matter much either way. Vermont is in New England and has similar demographics to New Hampshire. A win here is already baked into the equation. Without Santorum or Gingrich on the ballot in Virginia, the state is basically written off as a Romney shoo-in.

Santorum's likely wins in Oklahoma and Tennessee won't provide much (if any) momentum because they are rural and evangelical and the sort of states that Romney has performed poorly in. Also, compared to Romney's likely five wins above, their impact would be dwarfed.

Gingrich's win in Georgia is a must. Winning it allows him to limp on. Losing it kills his candidacy dead.

Alaska will only be noticed beyond an afterthought if Paul has his first victory there. Even then, it wouldn't provide him all that much momentum. Same thing with Romney.

Super Tuesday basically boils down to Ohio. It is the only major contest not baked in as an expected Romney, Santorum or Gingrich victory. Romney winning gives him an incredible amount of momentum (something like a +20 momentum boost in P4E) while a Santorum victory gives him crucial momentum to continue on in Saturday's Kansas caucus, the following week's Alabama and Mississippi primaries and the Missouri cauci (the one that actually matters).

Super Tuesday states: how I think it will turn out:

Romney: Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio,Vermont, Virginia

Santorum: Oklahoma, Tennessee

Gingrich: Georgia

Ohio is definately trending towards Romney. If Romney wins Ohio, which has smiliar demographics like Pennsylvania, I think Santorum will be severely damaged.

[Jayavarman 130]

Poll released today has Santorum only beating Romney by 4 points in Tennessee: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/tennessee/2012_tennessee_republican_primary

Ohio is a toss-up: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-1600.html

[POLLWONK 375]

My Call for Super Tuesday...

Georgia- Gingrich wins it solidly.

Tennessee- Santorum wins it solidly.

Massachusetts- Romney Wins it Solidly

Oklahoma- Santorum Wins it Solidly

Virginia- Romney wins it solidly

As for Ohio... Santorum has seen his lead evaporate fast over the past week. He is right now neck and neck with Romney and is seeing his base erode in similar fashion to the Michigan Primary. Romney is surging somewhat late in the Buckeye State, but may make it just in time. Considering how Romney's poll numbers are rising each day by about 2%, I'm guessing we'll see a Romney victory in Ohio similar to that in Michigan. However, Santorum could still win the state.

[Jayavarman 130]

Tennessee might actually be a toss-up between Romney and Santorum: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tn/tennessee_republican_presidential_primary-2043.html

If Romney can win Ohio plus a southern state or two on Super Tuesday, he may finally put a decisive end to this nomination contest.

Meanwhile, RCP now has Ron Paul beating Newt Gingrich for third place in number of delegates: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[ellchicago 353]

Tennessee might actually be a toss-up between Romney and Santorum: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tn/tennessee_republican_presidential_primary-2043.html

If Romney can win Ohio plus a southern state or two on Super Tuesday, he may finally put a decisive end to this nomination contest.

Meanwhile, RCP now has Ron Paul beating Newt Gingrich for third place in number of delegates: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

It is possible for Romney to win in Tennessee, but I still think Santorum will win in Tennessee.

[POLLWONK 375]

While Rasmussen's poll is interesting, I am hesitant to put it in the category of a Tossup. As far as I know, "Restore Our Future" hasn't poured much into the state. If another poll comes out today mirroring Rasmussen's find, then I'd move Tennessee into the Tossup category.

It is interesting that Ron Paul is beating Gingrich for 3rd place according to RCP. Gingrich may be on his last legs.

Tennessee might actually be a toss-up between Romney and Santorum: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tn/tennessee_republican_presidential_primary-2043.html

If Romney can win Ohio plus a southern state or two on Super Tuesday, he may finally put a decisive end to this nomination contest.

Meanwhile, RCP now has Ron Paul beating Newt Gingrich for third place in number of delegates: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[POLLWONK 375]

Santorum has put himself in a pretty dangerous position. He has stated that whoever wins Ohio will win the nomination. He has basically conceded that if Romney wins Ohio, the race is over. Right now, Romney is surging in the Buckeye State and appears likely to overtake Santorum on Tuesday. Santorum made it sound like Romney was on the brink of winning the nomination which will only demoralize his base in the long run.

[ellchicago 353]

Santorum has put himself in a pretty dangerous position. He has stated that whoever wins Ohio will win the nomination. He has basically conceded that if Romney wins Ohio, the race is over. Right now, Romney is surging in the Buckeye State and appears likely to overtake Santorum on Tuesday. Santorum made it sound like Romney was on the brink of winning the nomination which will only demoralize his base in the long run.

When did Santorum say that?

[POLLWONK 375]

I attended one of his rallies the other day, believe it or not. I also recall a CNN article which quoted him saying the same thing.

When did Santorum say that?