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Republican Primary Contests before Super Tuesday


ellchicago
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  1. 1. Which States will Romney win?

    • Nevada
      9
    • Maine
      9
    • Colorado
      4
    • Minnesota
      5
    • Missouri
      4
    • Arizona
      5
    • Michigan
      10
    • Washington
      8
    • None
      2
    • All of them
      6
  2. 2. Which States will Gingrich win?

    • Nevada
      2
    • Maine
      0
    • Colorado
      1
    • Minnesota
      0
    • Missouri
      1
    • Arizona
      4
    • Michigan
      0
    • Washington
      0
    • None
      11
    • All of them
      2
  3. 3. If Romney wins most of/all the contests before the Super Tuesday, the Primaries are...

    • Over.
      4
    • Will be over after Super Tuesday
      4
    • Will be over several contests after Super Tuesday
      9


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Santorum failed to put away Romney at the debate, and reviews say that Santorum had a disappointing performance. The momentum seems to favor Romney winning both Arizona and Michigan. These are primaries, not caucuses, so it is less likely that Santorum will pull an upset like he did in Colorado and Minnesota.

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Possibly. Though Nate did an interesting article on Romney's money problems. The strength of Romney's fundraising machine is not all it seems to be. Indeed, all of the Republican candidates are quite weak on that front, but Romney is especially weaker than he seems. I don't think his "fundraising advantage" is all that much. There is easily a chance that Santorum could steal the nomination from him. Particularly with a well-timed endorsement from kingmaker Gingrich.

That is why Romney has a super-pac. Gingrich won't endorse Santorum because he is ego-manic and just won't let it go, as long as Gingrich has money to continue, he will continue.

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Also when it mattered that Romney had a great debate, he lives up to expectations. Romney (and Gingrich) have the WILL TO WIN and willing to take a 2X4 and smash people in the face in order to win. Santorum definately doesn't have the will to win and Obama isn't willing even to pick a 2X4...

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Alfonzo, you are biased against Romney. You keep on given these excuses for why Romney won't win the nomination. First Gingrich was going to win, then if Romney won or lost Iowa, he would lose the nomination. Now you are saying Santorum will win...

I am a Progressive (back in 2008 I was a McCain Republican), I was extremely against Obama from the very beginning because I didn't believe him. In late 2009 to the summer of 2010, I became a strong true Progressive. Take a look at the President's record, it is very Conservative.

President Obama had plenty of opportunties to be a Progressive and choose Progressive advisors. Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, David Plouffe, William Daley,Jack Lew, Larry Summers, and Tim Geithner are all conservatives and Obama chose them. Instead, Obama pushed throught a stimulus that wasn't big enough (and 1/3 of it was tax cuts), killed real healthcare reform by getting rid of the Public Option or Medicare buy-in, passed a failed financial reform bill which didn't include Glass-Steagall, kept Gimto open, expended civil liberalties abuse, extended the Bush tax cuts, agreed to the payroll tax cut which hurts Social Security, and wants to do the Grand Bargin, which lowers Corperate taxes, cuts Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade, and severely hurts the Middle Class.

Why would any Progressive or Democrat not primary this guy??? Well I came up with answer...

The lesser of two evils between Romney and Obama is Romney. Why would I want a Democratic President do what a Republican President would? Obama is a trojan horse that must be stopped!

So Alfonzo, what combination of these following words is Obama: Weak, Stupid, or Complicit?

Romney is mostly likely going to the Republican nominee for President. Given how things are going in Europe, China, and Iran, the economy will probably be worse off, and even if it improves a little, Romney may win the election anyway with the help of his SuperPac, his WILL TO WIN and is willingness to take a 2X4 and smash people in the face. Could things be different? Yes, but this is my view based on the facts.

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Elliot is right. Obama's foreign policy is pretty much a watered down version of the Bush Doctrine. Rather than sticking with a historically successful program called Medicare and finding a way to make it more cash and quality effecient, he decided to invent Obamacare with no public option while defunding alot of medicare.

He avoided what was historically successful and tried to reinvent success. Like Elliot pointed out, he didn't bring back Glass Steagall which was proven to prevent monopolies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from forming, he agreed to a 2 year extension of ALL bush tax cuts EVEN THOUGH THE DEMOCRATS STILL HAD SUPERMAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE DURING THE 2010 LAME DUCK SESSION!

Alfonzo, you are biased against Romney. You keep on given these excuses for why Romney won't win the nomination. First Gingrich was going to win, then if Romney won or lost Iowa, he would lose the nomination. Now you are saying Santorum will win...

I am a Progressive (back in 2008 I was a McCain Republican), I was extremely against Obama from the very beginning because I didn't believe him. In late 2009 to the summer of 2010, I became a strong true Progressive. Take a look at the President's record, it is very Conservative.

President Obama had plenty of opportunties to be a Progressive and choose Progressive advisors. Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod, David Plouffe, William Daley,Jack Lew, Larry Summers, and Tim Geithner are all conservatives and Obama chose them. Instead, Obama pushed throught a stimulus that wasn't big enough, killed real healthcare reform by getting rid of the Public Option or Medicare buy-in, passed a failed finacial reform bill which didn't include Glass-Steagall, kept Gimto open, expended civil liberalties adbuse, extended the Bush tax cuts, agreed to the payroll tax cut which hurts Social Security, and wants to do the Grand Bargin, which lowers Corperate taxes, cuts Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade, and severely hurts the Middle Class.

Why would any Progressive or Democrat not primary this guy??? Well I came up with answer...

The lesser of two evils between Romney and Obama is Romney. Why would I want a Democratic President do what a Republican President would? Obama is a trojan horse that must be stopped!

So Alfonzo, what combination of these following words is Obama: Weak, Stupid, or Complicit?

Romney is mostly likely going to the Republican nominee for President. Given how things are going in Europe, China, and Iran, the economy will probably be worse off, and even if it improves a little, Romney may win the election anyway with the help of his SuperPac, his WILL TO WIN and is willingness to take a 2X4 and smash people in the face. Could things be different? Yes, but this is my view based on the facts.

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Elliot is right. Obama's foreign policy is pretty much a watered down version of the Bush Doctrine. Rather than sticking with a historically successful program called Medicare and finding a way to make it more cash and quality effecient, he decided to invent Obamacare with no public option while defunding alot of medicare.

He avoided what was historically successful and tried to reinvent success. Like Elliot pointed out, he didn't bring back Glass Steagall which was proven to prevent monopolies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from forming, he agreed to a 2 year extension of ALL bush tax cuts EVEN THOUGH THE DEMOCRATS STILL HAD SUPERMAJORITIES IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE DURING THE 2010 LAME DUCK SESSION!

You could say that Obama is running for George W. Bush's Fourth term...oh the irony!

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Despite Romney's bruising primary losses and the economy's improvement, Obama loses to Romney by 4 points in the latest Gallup Poll this past week. Weird.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152918/Romney-Santorum-Closely-Matched-Against-Obama-Nationally.aspx

The race is toss-up (at least between Romney and Obama) and it is too early to start putting alot of emphasis on general election polling.

Romney 50% to Obama 46%

Obama 49% to Santorum 48%

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The race is toss-up (at least between Romney and Obama) and it is too early to start putting alot of emphasis on general election polling.

Romney 50% to Obama 46%

Obama 49% to Santorum 48%

Polls can still be interpreted against the present macro environment as to clues to what conditions are needed for win/loss in November. It is not a good sign for Obama if he is trailing Romney during relative economic improvement and despite the latter's current nomination struggles.

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Despite Romney's bruising primary losses and the economy's improvement, Obama loses to Romney by 4 points in the latest Gallup Poll this past week. Weird.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152918/Romney-Santorum-Closely-Matched-Against-Obama-Nationally.aspx

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

The Gallup poll has the smallest sample size of the three most recent polls, and is comparatively more out of date than the other two. Both of the other two polls have Obama with decidedly excellent leads. The Gallup poll pretty much is an outlier compared to all the other polls. It's probably an aberration. If over the next few days, all the other pollsters release polls which are in line with Gallup's poll, you'll have something. But right now, Gallup's poll, with a small sample size, is an outlier. Don't read too deep into it.

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First off, the 10% lead you are citing came from Rasmussen. You have repeatedly called Rasmussen an unreliable and corrupted agency for polling in the past. I agree. That's why I don't care what Rasmussen Says.

Also note that the Associated Press poll showing Obama with an 8 point lead tracks everyone, even if they aren't registered or likely voters. So you aren't seeing the real picture by asking everyone. I know a lot of unregistered voters out there.

The other polls which show either a 4-2% Obama Lead or a 2% Romney lead poll either registered or likely voters. That would be the more accurate sampling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

The Gallup poll has the smallest sample size of the three most recent polls, and is comparatively more out of date than the other two. Both of the other two polls have Obama with decidedly excellent leads. The Gallup poll pretty much is an outlier compared to all the other polls. It's probably an aberration. If over the next few days, all the other pollsters release polls which are in line with Gallup's poll, you'll have something. But right now, Gallup's poll, with a small sample size, is an outlier. Don't read too deep into it.

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First off, the 10% lead you are citing came from Rasmussen. You have repeatedly called Rasmussen an unreliable and corrupted agency for polling in the past. I agree. That's why I don't care what Rasmussen Says.

I never said they were unreliable or corrupted. They are quite reliable. That is, their bias and inaccuracies are quite reliable. They are one of the most inaccurate pollsters out there, and most of their inaccuracy is in the form of a Republican bias. They are usually about 4.5% inaccurate, with an average 3.9% Republican bias (if I remember my numbers correctly). Whenever Rasmussen produce a poll favouring the Democrats, particularly in such a massive way, it raises my eyebrow.

I don't put a lot of stock in them. But it's interesting that a noted heavily Republican biased pollster produces such a strong result for the Democrats.

And like I said, Gallup's poll is still an aberration. It is far out from all of the other pollsters, and it boasts an embarassing small sample size. If other polls in the coming days produce similar results, then I'll put more weight in Gallup's poll. For now, it is nothing more than an aberration, and the Rasmussen poll, though still aberrent in itself, is more in line with the other pollsters.

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While everybody is focused on the GOP primary, do not forget that the President is campaigning, too.

The Obama campaign outspent the Romney campaign by several million dollars in the month of January.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/in-january-obama-campaign-outspent-romneys/

Some of Mr. Obama’s expenses were the kind that traditionally eat up a lot of campaign cash, like the production and placement of television ads, on which the campaign spent about $3.4 million; mail and postage, which ate up $2.8 million; and telemarketing, which racked up a bill of $1.4 million.

The campaign’s single largest expense was for Internet advertising: Mr. Obama spent $4.3 million on Web ads in January, about as much as some of the Republican candidates raised.

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Gallup's poll is still an aberration. It is far out from all of the other pollsters, and it boasts an embarassing small sample size. If other polls in the coming days produce similar results, then I'll put more weight in Gallup's poll. For now, it is nothing more than an aberration, and the Rasmussen poll, though still aberrent in itself, is more in line with the other pollsters.

Rasmussen now has Obama only leading Romney by 2 points, a statistical tie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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Rasmussen now has Obama only leading Romney by 2 points, a statistical tie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Romney has basically won Arizona. @ppppolls "It looks like Romney has banked about a 30 point lead among early voters in Arizona and they're more than half the electorate" "Early observations on today's polls: Michigan still pretty close, but Romney headed for a huge win in Arizona"

Michigan is close though...

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You're all still putting too much stock in general election polling this early. The Republicans don't even have a nominee yet. Romney's head to head numbers against Obama naturally took a hit when Santorum started to surge, because he lost that aura of inevitability. Now that that's starting to come back Romney's numbers are picking up again. Couple that with the fact that Obama's post SOTU and jobs report bounce is pretty much gone, we're right back to where we were in December. These numbers fluctuate, and theres no use putting any stock into GE numbers before the Republican nominee is certain, and we have a better sense of how 2012 is going to play out in terms of the economy and Iran/Israel. Considering Europe looks like its out of the woods for now, there won't be a major downturn this year, so the wildcard is going to be the Iran situation and how it affects oil prices. An Israeli attack and a oil price shock would probably cost Obama the election and the scale of American involvement in any military confrontation will be interesting to see. It will also be interesting to see how much the election impacts Obama's course of action. He's clearly shown he's willing to make policy decisions for the sole purpose of furthering his reelection bid, except this time the consequences could be severe.

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You're all still putting too much stock in general election polling this early. The Republicans don't even have a nominee yet. Romney's head to head numbers against Obama naturally took a hit when Santorum started to surge, because he lost that aura of inevitability. Now that that's starting to come back Romney's numbers are picking up again. Couple that with the fact that Obama's post SOTU and jobs report bounce is pretty much gone, we're right back to where we were in December. These numbers fluctuate, and theres no use putting any stock into GE numbers before the Republican nominee is certain, and we have a better sense of how 2012 is going to play out in terms of the economy and Iran/Israel. Considering Europe looks like its out of the woods for now, there won't be a major downturn this year, so the wildcard is going to be the Iran situation and how it affects oil prices. An Israeli attack and a oil price shock would probably cost Obama the election and the scale of American involvement in any military confrontation will be interesting to see. It will also be interesting to see how much the election impacts Obama's course of action. He's clearly shown he's willing to make policy decisions for the sole purpose of furthering his reelection bid, except this time the consequences could be severe.

He's also shown that he makes very good decisions when it comes to foreign policy. If anything happens with Iran before the election, expect Obama to be on top of it. If the focus is shifted at all away from the economy during the election, Obama is a dead-set for reelection. The Republicans only hope for winning is that the economy remains the number one issue, and that it doesn't improve.

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He's also shown that he makes very good decisions when it comes to foreign policy. If anything happens with Iran before the election, expect Obama to be on top of it. If the focus is shifted at all away from the economy during the election, Obama is a dead-set for reelection. The Republicans only hope for winning is that the economy remains the number one issue, and that it doesn't improve.

Possibly. If US invades Iran, people will lose the EFFing minds. That would massively backfire on Obama.

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I wouldn't be so sure... the last thing Obama wants is a war involving the US Military during election season. Also, it would go against his own logic if he used military action against Iran. If the State Department, the Department of Defense, and the FBI have concluded that Iran isn't developing a nuke, why would he put US Troops in there or even a bombing campaign? Our intelligence has only stated that Iran has enough uranium to make a bomb in five years, yet little to zero action has been taken towards constructing a nuke.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like Iran. Iran's leader Ahmadinejad is a nutjob's version of a nutjob. What i'm saying is that Obama probably won't throw himself into a future Iranian-Israeli conflict, like you were saying. He will probably try some bombings, but nothing more.

Politically, it would be stupid for Obama to deploy troops. A Democrat (probably Kucinich, maybe Dean or Feingold) would run third party on him in protest of the war, arguing that Obama was advocating the Bush Doctrine. It is the LAST thing Americans want right now, a war with iran.

He's also shown that he makes very good decisions when it comes to foreign policy. If anything happens with Iran before the election, expect Obama to be on top of it. If the focus is shifted at all away from the economy during the election, Obama is a dead-set for reelection. The Republicans only hope for winning is that the economy remains the number one issue, and that it doesn't improve.

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Nate Silver just raised Romney's chances of winning in Michigan to 77%.

Romney will win both Michigan and Arizona.

Romney has basically won Arizona. @ppppolls "It looks like Romney has banked about a 30 point lead among early voters in Arizona and they're more than half the electorate" "Early observations on today's polls: Michigan still pretty close, but Romney headed for a huge win in Arizona"

Michigan is close though...

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He's also shown that he makes very good decisions when it comes to foreign policy. If anything happens with Iran before the election, expect Obama to be on top of it. If the focus is shifted at all away from the economy during the election, Obama is a dead-set for reelection. The Republicans only hope for winning is that the economy remains the number one issue, and that it doesn't improve.

No matter what Obama does, an Israeli-Iranian war would have devastating consequences on the US economy. No matter what course of action Obama takes, its going to piss someone off and give the GOP candidate fuel. I think you overestimate Obama's foriegn policy genius. Though it does look good compared to his domestic policy, its nothing special.

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Nate Silver just raised Romney's chances of winning in Michigan to 77%.

Romney will win both Michigan and Arizona.

POLLWONK, GO outside, turned around three times and spat and curse!!!

Go watch this clip for context http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4rigI3FkwE

Mitt Romney is regretting his day trip to Florida now…

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...hmm... how do I take this?... Let's just say i am not a fan of the TV Show "West Wing" and I don't intend to spin around three times while releasing saliva and profanities...

Romney is still favored to win Michigan.

POLLWONK, GO outside, turned around three times and spat and curse!!!

Go watch this clip for context http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4rigI3FkwE

Mitt Romney is regretting his day trip to Florida now…

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