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Republican Primary Contests before Super Tuesday


  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. Which States will Romney win?

    • Nevada
      9
    • Maine
      9
    • Colorado
      4
    • Minnesota
      5
    • Missouri
      4
    • Arizona
      5
    • Michigan
      10
    • Washington
      8
    • None
      2
    • All of them
      6
  2. 2. Which States will Gingrich win?

    • Nevada
      2
    • Maine
      0
    • Colorado
      1
    • Minnesota
      0
    • Missouri
      1
    • Arizona
      4
    • Michigan
      0
    • Washington
      0
    • None
      11
    • All of them
      2
  3. 3. If Romney wins most of/all the contests before the Super Tuesday, the Primaries are...

    • Over.
      4
    • Will be over after Super Tuesday
      4
    • Will be over several contests after Super Tuesday
      9


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Name the things that Romney can't attack Santorum with.

Name the things that Romney can't attack Santorum with.

As of right now, Romney has 3.7% lead (67% of win) in Michigan from Nate Silver http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/michigan

I voted that the contest would end after Super Tuesday not because I think its going to be a Hillary-Obama rematch in GOP form... it's because it is simply impossible. The earliest Romney could clinch the nomination (by gaining the 51% of delegates) is early April. That is when 51% of the delegates will be available...

However, I do believe that Romney will virtually be the "presumptive nominee" if he wins all or most of the states before Super Tuesday. He won't officially have the title or have "Clinched the nomination", but it will be fairly obvious that its too late for anybody else to make a comeback.

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What I mean is... Romney will be only real candidate left. Even though he won't have enough pledged delegates YET, he will be guaranteed them. It's like how Gore ran in 2000 against Bill Bradley. Gore hadn't officially clinched the nomination, but was technically the "presumptive nominee". That's where Romney will be after Super Tuesday.

I voted that the contest would end after Super Tuesday not because I think its going to be a Hillary-Obama rematch in GOP form... it's because it is simply impossible. The earliest Romney could clinch the nomination (by gaining the 51% of delegates) is early April. That is when 51% of the delegates will be available...

However, I do believe that Romney will virtually be the "presumptive nominee" if he wins all or most of the states before Super Tuesday. He won't officially have the title or have "Clinched the nomination", but it will be fairly obvious that its too late for anybody else to make a comeback.

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Romney should have it wrapped up after Super Tuesday. I'd expect Santorum to be done by them and for Romney to take a solid majority over the ST states. Newt may stick around for a while, but no one will take him seriously. Sort of like Huckabee in 08 after Romney dropped and he decided to stay for some reason. He may win a few states where hes strong and Romney's weak, but no one will care. Also Paul is going all the way to the convention without a doubt.

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I voted that the contest would end after Super Tuesday not because I think its going to be a Hillary-Obama rematch in GOP form... it's because it is simply impossible. The earliest Romney could clinch the nomination (by gaining the 51% of delegates) is early April. That is when 51% of the delegates will be available...

However, I do believe that Romney will virtually be the "presumptive nominee" if he wins all or most of the states before Super Tuesday. He won't officially have the title or have "Clinched the nomination", but it will be fairly obvious that its too late for anybody else to make a comeback.

I agree. Romney may have not "clinched the nomination", but he would have momentum and a lead in delegates that no one could catch up with. Sorta like McCain in 2008 after Super Tuesday.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Nate Silver just raised Romney's chances in Florida to 97%.

If Romney wins Florida in a landslide (Very likely), then the race will be solid Romney.

Right up until he is solidly defeated in Missouri and Minnesota by overwhelming margins, and decidedly defeated in Colorado. With Santorum winning all three, and Romney losing Colorado in quite an upset, I'd say the primaries are still quite open. Gingrich may drop out, but that'll help Santorum more than Romney.

Right now things are looking pretty open. The build up to Super Tuesday could be very interesting indeed. Particularly with Romney losing ground in head-to-head matchups against Obama, while Santorum gains ground. The "Romney is the only one who can beat Obama" meme seems to be losing its edge, for more reasons than one.

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Right up until he is solidly defeated in Missouri and Minnesota by overwhelming margins, and decidedly defeated in Colorado. With Santorum winning all three, and Romney losing Colorado in quite an upset, I'd say the primaries are still quite open. Gingrich may drop out, but that'll help Santorum more than Romney.

Right now things are looking pretty open. The build up to Super Tuesday could be very interesting indeed. Particularly with Romney losing ground in head-to-head matchups against Obama, while Santorum gains ground. The "Romney is the only one who can beat Obama" meme seems to be losing its edge, for more reasons than one.

I still think Romney is the favorite. The reason that Santorum did so well is that Romney didn't broadside Santorum with negative ads yet. That is going to happen shortly...

To draw conclusions Romney is losing groud with Obama is premature because Obama got a bounce from SOTU and good economic numbers which may not continue. Rick Santorum can't win against Obama anyway.

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I still think Romney is the favorite. The reason that Santorum did so well is that Romney didn't broadside Santorum with negative ads yet. That is going to happen shortly...

To draw conclusions Romney is losing groud with Obama is premature because Obama got a bounce from SOTU and good economic numbers which may not continue. Rick Santorum can't win against Obama anyway.

It's not premature, it's an accurate reflection of the current state of polling. Romney is losing ground to Obama. He may yet recover that gorund. He may not.

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It's not premature, it's an accurate reflection of the current state of polling. Romney is losing ground to Obama. He may yet recover that gorund. He may not.

My point is simply that Obama is getting good numbers 9 months away from the election is NOT an accurate predictor of the election. The economy could get better or it could get worse.

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Keep in mind that McCain did not win any of these states (except narrowly Missouri) in 2008. Nevertheless, it is a disappointing reminder that social conservatives still reject Romney (or now see him as the "moderate" that needs to be stopped). Romney handily won Colorado and Minnesota (and narrowly lost Missouri) four years ago.

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Keep in mind that McCain did not win any of these states (except narrowly Missouri) in 2008. Nevertheless, it is a disappointing reminder that social conservatives still reject Romney (or now see him as the "moderate" that needs to be stopped). Romney handily won Colorado and Minnesota (and narrowly lost Missouri) four years ago.

That is a good point Jayavarman! Not to mention that Colorado and Minnesota are proportional representation. If Romney holds enough of the states he won in 2008 and gains a majority of McCain states, he would have more than enough delagates to win the nomination.

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My point is simply that Obama is getting good numbers 9 months away from the election is NOT an accurate predictor of the election. The economy could get better or it could get worse.

And my point is that pollwonk has time and time again asserted the opposite. He has asserted that Obama not getting good numbers is somehow an accurate predictor. How can bad numbers = accurate predictor, good numbers =/= accurate predictor? All it does is invalidate pollwonks argument that Obama not fairing fantastically against Romney in head-to-head matchups this far out from an election is somehow bad for Obama.

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And my point is that pollwonk has time and time again asserted the opposite. He has asserted that Obama not getting good numbers is somehow an accurate predictor. How can bad numbers = accurate predictor, good numbers =/= accurate predictor? All it does is invalidate pollwonks argument that Obama not fairing fantastically against Romney in head-to-head matchups this far out from an election is somehow bad for Obama.

I was trying to communicate the following statement... for where Obama stands right now, history indicates that he is in a very dangerous position one year before the election.

I already have given enough evidence to back up the claim.

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Bush was arguably in a worse position at this time in 2004. Same with Reagan in 84. Hell even go back to Truman in 48. Carter was leading by 30 points this time in 1980 and he got creamed. As I've said before, the 24 hour news cycle and the internet have diminished the notion that an incumbent needs to lead by double digits a year out from the election. The public is much more informed of the opposing parties alternatives and can come to a decision much sooner than before. All the data suggests an extremely tight race, with the events in Europe (and potentially Iran), as well the economy at home being the deciding factor.

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Bush was arguably in a worse position at this time in 2004. Same with Reagan in 84. Hell even go back to Truman in 48. Carter was leading by 30 points this time in 1980 and he got creamed. As I've said before, the 24 hour news cycle and the internet have diminished the notion that an incumbent needs to lead by double digits a year out from the election. The public is much more informed of the opposing parties alternatives and can come to a decision much sooner than before. All the data suggests an extremely tight race, with the events in Europe (and potentially Iran), as well the economy at home being the deciding factor.

Bush, Truman, and Reagan were in better shape for relection, the economy was in better shape and unemployment was lower.

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Just as Newt quickly faded before Iowa and after South Carolina, Santorum quickly faded after Iowa and will fade before Arizona/Michigan. Romney will spend boatloads of money on driving up Santorum's negatives. But then he will get complacent, and Newt will surge again. :D

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Just as Newt quickly faded before Iowa and after South Carolina, Santorum quickly faded after Iowa and will fade before Arizona/Michigan. Romney will spend boatloads of money on driving up Santorum's negatives. But then he will get complacent, and Newt will surge again. :D

I don't think Romney will become complacent and I have no idea if anyone will surge again.

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I think Newt is dead. Santorum is emerging as the candidate of the right wing of the party and Newt really doesn't have the resources to stop it. The debate on the 22nd would be interesting.

Also thank God Paul didn't win Maine. The Paulbots wouldn't have shut up about it.

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Just as Newt quickly faded before Iowa and after South Carolina, Santorum quickly faded after Iowa and will fade before Arizona/Michigan. Romney will spend boatloads of money on driving up Santorum's negatives. But then he will get complacent, and Newt will surge again. :D

Gingrich had a lot of vulnerabilities which Romney attacked with a blanket of ads in Florida. Santorum has no such weaknesses which Romney can attack (and still remain credible). Santorum will not be as easily defeated as Gingrich, and Gingrich isn't even defeated yet. I'm still hoping Gingrich will pull out right before Super Tuesday and endorse Santorum. That'd pretty much ruin Romney.

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