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Predicting Iowa and New Hampshire  

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  1. 1. Which candidate in the GOP Field will win in Iowa?

    • Mitt Romney
      10
    • Ron Paul
      2
    • Rick Santorum
      6
    • Newt Gingrich
      1
    • Michele Bachmann
      1
    • Rick Perry
      0
    • Jon Huntsman Jr.
      0
  2. 2. Which candidate in the GOP Field will win in New Hampshire?

    • Mitt Romney
      16
    • Ron Paul
      0
    • Rick Santorum
      0
    • Newt Gingrich
      0
    • Michele Bachmann
      1
    • Rick Perry
      0
    • Jon Huntsman Jr.
      3
  3. 3. If a candidate were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, would that guarantee the candidate the nomination?

    • Yes!
      5
    • Probably. It would pretty much make the winning candidate unstoppable.
      6
    • Maybe. We'll just have to wait and see.
      2
    • Probably not. It really depends WHO wins the first two states.
      3
    • No!
      4


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Yeah. I don't know about Massachusetts (maybe a Democratic edge), but he would certainly make states like Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Ohio be a tossup or lean GOP.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan were all severely plagued by the recession and have struggling economies.

Plus, Romney is strong in the northeast where Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine all sit. He would make those tossups. He would weaken other New England states, though I doubt he could win New York or Massachusetts or Vermont.

Romney would put states like Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania into play, not to mention many traditional swing states like Florida and Ohio. He is President Obama's most dangerous opponent.

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Odds are it will be Romney. You are trying to discredit all of Romney's leads by saying he has a 58% chance of winning. Calculations show that even though Romney isn't at a 50% chance, he is SIGFNICA

Romney could do so well in South Carolina, he could possibly win all 50 states in the primary.

I don't think that we can automatically assume that nomination is going be a knockdown dragout. At this point in the race, it was a 2 way tie between McCain and Giuliani, but by March the nomination w

Prediction for Iowa and New Hampshire...

Iowa:

1.) Mitt Romney (momentum is clearly on his side. He is leading in most polls and is the favorite to win)

2.) Rick Santorum (note: he has alot of momentum and is growing popular among social conservatives by the minute)

3.) Ron Paul (note: is losing momentum. Isn't completely out of hope, but odds are against him.)

4.) Newt Gingrich

5.) Rick Perry

6.) Michele Bachmann

7.) John Huntsman

New Hampshire:

1.) Mitt Romney (duh)

2.) Jon Huntsman (He has been investing a ton in this state. He will do well.)

3.) Ron Paul (His losing in Iowa will hurt his campaign too much)

4.) Rick Santorum

5.) Newt Gingrich

6.) Rick Perry

7.) Michele Bachmann

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Prediction for Iowa and New Hampshire...

Iowa:

1.) Mitt Romney (momentum is clearly on his side. He is leading in most polls and is the favorite to win)

2.) Rick Santorum (note: he has alot of momentum and is growing popular among social conservatives by the minute)

3.) Ron Paul (note: is losing momentum. Isn't completely out of hope, but odds are against him.)

4.) Newt Gingrich

5.) Rick Perry

6.) Michele Bachmann

7.) John Huntsman

New Hampshire:

1.) Mitt Romney (duh)

2.) Jon Huntsman (He has been investing a ton in this state. He will do well.)

3.) Ron Paul (His losing in Iowa will hurt his campaign too much)

4.) Rick Santorum

5.) Newt Gingrich

6.) Rick Perry

7.) Michele Bachmann

Mitt Romney also has alot of the state GOP establishment support in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He could be better than expected.

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It makes complete sense. If Romney wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will have done something that...

1.) Reagan didn't accomplish in 1980

2.) Bush Sr. didn't accomplish in 1988

3.) Dole didn't accomplish in 1996

4.) Bush Jr. didn't accomplish in 2000

You might wonder, "So why is Romney an exception?"

Here is why: Romney is guaranteed the next state New Hampshire. Unless something bigger than a miracle occurs, it will be Romney's. That gave him all the time in the world to campaign in Iowa. Now, he is on the brink of claiming victory in that state. He already secured New Hampshire and now he is only a couple hours away from officially claiming Iowa.

That alone would be a historic accomplishment. It would also convince voters that Romney would unite the GOP across the US, from agriculture states like Iowa to metrostates like New Hampshire. That would convince alot of people.

Mitt Romney also has alot of the state GOP establishment support in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He could be better than expected.

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Also, the argument you have made is based off more of a general election not a primary. In Iowa, the lowest percentage it would take to win would be only 15% in a seven man field. 15%. Romney is predicted to carry alot of votes. Also, he and Rick Santorum have gotten alot of attention as of late. That means more turnout and more publicity. Ron Paul was in a downward slide (read today's WSJ article) when caucus day came while Romney and Santorum were on the upswing. Considering this, they should both make near the maximum Silver predicted they could make while Paul will make near the middle or the lower end of the stick. A Romney victory.

Mitt Romney also has alot of the state GOP establishment support in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He could be better than expected.

Nate uses historical data to see that candidates like Romney tend to underperform their polling. He thinks, despite Romney's momentum, that he will underperform, not overperform. I happen to agree with Nate on this, the data is all there.

On a wild bet, I think Paul will very underperform. He's polling in the low 20's. I'll bet he'll be lucky to get 15%. I think Santorum will win Iowa, in what a week ago would have been called a surprising upset. I might even think there's a chance Santorum could get into the 30's. But we'll have to wait a few hours and see how all this turns out.

Personally, I think we'll all be wrong. Something that nobody in this thread has predicted will probably happen. Bachmann will win Iowa. Just wait and see.

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If you agree with Nate, then you agree that Romney is most likely to win in Iowa. Either you agree with Elliot and I and Nate's belief that Romney will finish 1st or you abandon Nate and expect a Santorum or Bachmann victory in the 30%s.

I think we can both agree that Paul will underperform. I don't know about 15%, but he will do poorly in comparison to how the polls are showing him.

Also, what is your prediction for Iowa???? You said that Rick Santorum would win earlier in this post, and then you said Michele Bachmann...

Nate uses historical data to see that candidates like Romney tend to underperform their polling. He thinks, despite Romney's momentum, that he will underperform, not overperform. I happen to agree with Nate on this, the data is all there.

On a wild bet, I think Paul will very underperform. He's polling in the low 20's. I'll bet he'll be lucky to get 15%. I think Santorum will win Iowa, in what a week ago would have been called a surprising upset. I might even think there's a chance Santorum could get into the 30's. But we'll have to wait a few hours and see how all this turns out.

Personally, I think we'll all be wrong. Something that nobody in this thread has predicted will probably happen. Bachmann will win Iowa. Just wait and see.

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Bachmann has no shot at winning. She blew herself up with all her false claims... She is polling below 10%. Nate Silver gives her a 0% chance of winning. She is polling well below 10%. She is the candidate that Democrats and Obama supporters WANT to see win because she'd be so easy to defeat. And even Obama knows that the odds of that occuring is 0%.

Santorum will do well, but he is not a Huckabee. Huckabee broke out in the debates and took the lead NATIONALLY. He was leading in Iowa two months before the caucuses. Santorum just finished third place 3 days before the caucus. The odds of a Santorum victory are highly unlikely. Yes, he will do very well for former single-digit candidate. But he isn't going to get any higher than 2nd place. And yes, he does have momentum, but people are starting to attack him for his support of earmarks as well as his plan to BOMB IRAN. Yes, he said he is definitly going to do that. That alone will limit the mo.

Gingrich is a goner. He destroyed himself. Someone needs to publish a book called "The Rise (1994) and Fall (1998) and Rise (2011) and Fall (2011) of Newt Gingrich". He shot himself in the foot with his record.

Perry also is a goner. Perry committed harri-carri on national TV during the debates. He would be lucky to finish 4th.

Huntsman never liked Iowa.

Paul is on the downward slide and it is hard to win if your support is melting. New found revelations or scandals will make a candidate's supporters start doubting him. The recent revelatons about racist and anti-gay comments by Paul in the 1980s.

Romney has seen the largest surge in support. The Wall Street Journal released a polling chart today that Romney has been in a constant uptick over the past two weeks. Not once did those numbers decrease a little. That shows that Romney has enthusiasm and momentum a day before the caucus. Also, at the rate it was climbing, Romney's polls are probably a few points higher today. Also, people know Romney's past and Romney has explained himself over and over again and has come away just fine from the attacks.

In conclusion, the most likely winner is Romney. Because the polls and momentum indicates his victory, I think that the safest bet is Romney. And also in response to your argument that we can never know, yes we can at least have an idea. Polls and momentum have been proven to show a reasonable reading of moods, approval ratings, and the future. I don't rule out a possible upset by a high polling candidate like Paul or maybe Santorum. But I believe that it is highly unlikely.

Nate uses historical data to see that candidates like Romney tend to underperform their polling. He thinks, despite Romney's momentum, that he will underperform, not overperform. I happen to agree with Nate on this, the data is all there.

On a wild bet, I think Paul will very underperform. He's polling in the low 20's. I'll bet he'll be lucky to get 15%. I think Santorum will win Iowa, in what a week ago would have been called a surprising upset. I might even think there's a chance Santorum could get into the 30's. But we'll have to wait a few hours and see how all this turns out.

Personally, I think we'll all be wrong. Something that nobody in this thread has predicted will probably happen. Bachmann will win Iowa. Just wait and see.

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Yeah. I don't know about Massachusetts (maybe a Democratic edge), but he would certainly make states like Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Ohio be a tossup or lean GOP.

Romney was Governor of Massachusetts and spent most of his adult life there. Why would it not be in play?

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Because Massachusetts has historically been a Democratic fortress. Other New England states like Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, and New Hampshire have large amounts of independents who like Romney. Massachusetts and New York are both diehard Democratic states. In fact, (I'm not 100% sure on this fact) I do recall hearing there are more Democrats then Republicans and Independents COMBINED in the state. Romney will certainly improve the GOP's standing in the state. I think that the state would be 57-42 Democratic leaning in a Romney-Obama matchup. He would make it tighter than usual, but it would take awhile to wrench the Kennedy State from Democratic grasp.

Romney was Governor of Massachusetts and spent most of his adult life there. Why would it not be in play?

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Nate uses historical data to see that candidates like Romney tend to underperform their polling. He thinks, despite Romney's momentum, that he will underperform, not overperform. I happen to agree with Nate on this, the data is all there.

On a wild bet, I think Paul will very underperform. He's polling in the low 20's. I'll bet he'll be lucky to get 15%. I think Santorum will win Iowa, in what a week ago would have been called a surprising upset. I might even think there's a chance Santorum could get into the 30's. But we'll have to wait a few hours and see how all this turns out.

Personally, I think we'll all be wrong. Something that nobody in this thread has predicted will probably happen. Bachmann will win Iowa. Just wait and see.

That makes no sense that Bachmann will win Iowa. Bachmann is finished.

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If you agree with Nate, then you agree that Romney is most likely to win in Iowa. Either you agree with Elliot and I and Nate's belief that Romney will finish 1st or you abandon Nate and expect a Santorum or Bachmann victory in the 30%s.

I think we can both agree that Paul will underperform. I don't know about 15%, but he will do poorly in comparison to how the polls are showing him.

Also, what is your prediction for Iowa???? You said that Rick Santorum would win earlier in this post, and then you said Michele Bachmann...

Apparently my joking suggestion that Bachmann would win wasn't recognised as a joke :P.

However, while I was sleeping, it seems Nate himself posted on his blog saying that he would bet on Santorum and against his model, which was just what I did.

But you clearly don't understand just what Nate's model was saying. You seem to think it means that Romney will absolutely certainly win Iowa because there is a 42% chance he will. Read this. My prediction of Santorum doing quite well fits well within Nate's model as one possibility. That's how statistics works.

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Romney wins Iowa by 8 votes.

If you can call that a win. Still, Santorum overperformed. So did Paul, and Romney (both to much lesser extents mind you). Seems that the underperformers were the underdogs. Perry will probably drop out. Bachmann will probably drop out if she faces similar losses in South Carolina and Florida. Huntsman is doing the best he can to make everybody forget he came dead last. Gingrich is running a cheap campaign, and will probably just keep at it until he no longer can - the longer he runs, the more of his books get sold.

In my opinion, the 8 vote win will probably hurt Romney more than help. And Santorum's huge last-minute surge will definitely give him the momentum to secure South Carolina and Florida, particularly after Perry departs from the race. Paul underperformed relative to his supporters expectations. He'll probably suffer a big hit to his momentum after this.

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If you can call that a win. Still, Santorum overperformed. So did Paul, and Romney (both to much lesser extents mind you). Seems that the underperformers were the underdogs. Perry will probably drop out. Bachmann will probably drop out if she faces similar losses in South Carolina and Florida. Huntsman is doing the best he can to make everybody forget he came dead last. Gingrich is running a cheap campaign, and will probably just keep at it until he no longer can - the longer he runs, the more of his books get sold.

In my opinion, the 8 vote win will probably hurt Romney more than help. And Santorum's huge last-minute surge will definitely give him the momentum to secure South Carolina and Florida, particularly after Perry departs from the race. Paul underperformed relative to his supporters expectations. He'll probably suffer a big hit to his momentum after this.

Mitt Romney is in good shape: he is still the presumptive nominee, he is going to win New Hampshire, and John McCain who won New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida endorsed Romney. Romney's SuperPac will start running ads against Santorum and will crush him. There is no evidence that Romney will automaticly lose South Carolina if Gingrich stays in (social conservatives will split the vote like in Iowa) and in Florida where Romney will do better than in South Carolina. Also Rick Perry only has about 6% support in South Carolina, so it may not have as big as impact as you say it will.

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Santorum will now face the wilting scrutiny that all the other anti-Romney candidates received. He will also not be able to do what he did in Iowa, traveling all counties for months. Santorum does not have the money and organization to fight it out even thru to the end of the month, let alone thru June.

Romney only lost Florida to McCain by 5 points in 2008. I predict that Romney will win Florida this month and probably also South Carolina.

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From Nate's blog, a few interesting facts about this result:

  • Romney's vote share was lower than what he achieved in Iowa in 2008
  • Romney failed to beat Mr. Santorum among registered Republicans
  • This was the lowest-ever winning percentage in the Iowa caucus

It's a win, but it can barely be called one.

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