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P4E8 2012 Scenario Beta released


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Something I noticed when skipping the primary and directly starting the GE: In three games, Georgia has been a toss-up after two weeks and went to Obama two times. I haven't looked at the numbers, but the state seems to be awfully swingy which it really isn't.

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Here are the candidates I'd add and remove... GOP Remove: Buddy Roemer Add: Donald Trump Paul Ryan Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal David Petraeus Ignore: Thad McCotter Democrats Remove: None

Agreed. Clinton should be higher... Feingold should be winning blue collar states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan. Sanders and Dean should be duking it out in Vermont. Clinton should be winning Ne

Can we see some more Democratic candidates? I mean, Hillary is nice, but I want to see more candidates... -Russ Feingold -Howard Dean -Bernie Sanders -Mike Gravel

2012 scenario updated.

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v. 1.1

- 2012 scenario icon

- Roemer off by default

- Chris Christie slot moved down

- Sarah Palin slot moved down

- reduced impact of OWS event

- added economic events that impact Obama on Leadership or Experience (35% chance of occurring per turn in primaries, 25% in general)

- inter-party (primaries) coefficient 0.001 -> 0.0001 (makes it more difficult to gain voters who are with another party during primaries)

- Republican primary > SC > PR to FPP

- increased Hillary Clinton % strength

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2012 scenario updated.

Download

v. 1.1

- 2012 scenario icon

- Roemer off by default

- Chris Christie slot moved down

- Sarah Palin slot moved down

- reduced impact of OWS event

- added economic events that impact Obama on Leadership or Experience (35% chance of occurring per turn in primaries, 25% in general)

- inter-party (primaries) coefficient 0.001 -> 0.0001 (makes it more difficult to gain voters who are with another party during primaries)

- Republican primary > SC > PR to FPP

- increased Hillary Clinton % strength

Thanks, this fixed the major problem!

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2012 scenario updated.

Download

v. 1.2

- Herman Cain > Issue Familiarity 3 -> 2

- Rick Perry > Issue Familiarity 4 -> 3

- Ron Paul > Integrity 4 -> 5

- Michele Bachmann > Experience 3 -> 2

- Rick Santorum > Leadership 4 -> 3, Experience 4 -> 3

- Sarah Palin > Integrity 2 -> 3

- Scripted event > Ohio Voters ... > momentum 100 -> 1 (note: anything above 2 is treated as 2, and similarly for negative values)

- Scripted event > Occupy Wall Street .. > momentum 100 -> 1

- Hillary Clinton > New York, Arkansas > increased %s

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Yes, PM4E Canada 2011 is almost finalized. I expect a new version within a week. Then, PM4E Australia 2011 should be released in short order after that.

When can we expect a new PM4E Canada 2011 version? By end of November?

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- Ron Paul > Integrity 4 -> 5

I don't know if I like that. Ron Paul is already pretty overpowered. It almost seems to be a plague of the US scenarios that Ron Paul is overpowered. He attracts a pretty solid amount of the vote, but I don't think he'll ever win a state in the primaries, barring something incredible.

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Right - noted.

I don't know if I like that. Ron Paul is already pretty overpowered. It almost seems to be a plague of the US scenarios that Ron Paul is overpowered. He attracts a pretty solid amount of the vote, but I don't think he'll ever win a state in the primaries, barring something incredible.

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Hi James,

Can you confirm you were playing with scenario version 1.1 or greater (it says on the scenario title)?

Overall, I like the scenario, but Obama when not facing Clinton is too powerful. I ran a spacebar and Obama ended up beating Perry/Gingrich 530-18 with 60% of the vote. He even won Texas.

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Overall, I like the scenario, but Obama when not facing Clinton is too powerful. I ran a spacebar and Obama ended up beating Perry/Gingrich 530-18 with 60% of the vote. He even won Texas.

What is a spacebar?

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I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

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I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

hey guys i fixed some issues. can i upload the scenario?

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I, too, spacebarred an election. The Republican primary was quite interesting (and I think realistic) with Gingrich taking it away from Romney by the skin of his teeth.

The General Election, however, turned out to be a complete and utter disaster for Republicans. Over 14% were undecideds on election day, Obama led by 51% to Gingrich's 31%. The final numbers were 529-9 (Gingrich won only AL). There is no way that Georgia will be a toss-up state in 2012 which it is in the scenario.

Played 1.2, and am very excited about it - despite the flaws to be epxected with a beta version. :)

Actually, the only poll I've seen of Georgia this year had Obama leading Gingrich by a point. Admittedly that was back in April...

Are there ways to make the level of dynamic change differ for the primary versus the general election? I feel like recent primaries have just been wild rides with everything turning upside-down several times in the first quarter of the election year, but when we arrive at the general it's all quite rigid, with the national environment maybe changing by a handful of net points over the course of the campaign and the states barely moving relative to one another at all. Making general elections more rigid would make things like a 529-9 Obama landslide when he should be struggling for re-election less likely.

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Ok, second space bar run, Romney dominated the GOP primaries, and I mean dominated. Cain and Perry dropped dead early on, and no one else managed to catch up. The GE was pretty even until about a week before election night. Romney got a huge surge and took California by almost 5% and lost NY by less than 1%. He won with 352 EVs and 54%v of the vote.

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Actually, that's is conceivable... if the economy hits rock bottom in 2012 due to the Eurozone's collapse, then Obama's job will be shovel ready for Romney.

Ok, second space bar run, Romney dominated the GOP primaries, and I mean dominated. Cain and Perry dropped dead early on, and no one else managed to catch up. The GE was pretty even until about a week before election night. Romney got a huge surge and took California by almost 5% and lost NY by less than 1%. He won with 352 EVs and 54%v of the vote.

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