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Who will win the Presidential Election in 2012?


  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the Republican Nominee for President?

    • Mitt Romney
      21
    • Mike Huckabee
      0
    • Rick Perry
      1
    • Herman Cain
      1
    • Newt Gingrich
      6
    • Jon Huntsman, Jr.
      0
    • Ron Paul
      1
    • Michele Bachmann
      0
    • Rick Santorum
      0
    • Gary Johnson
      0
  2. 2. Will Mike Huckabee reenter the race to be a viable alternative to Mitt Romney?

    • Yes.
      1
    • No.
      26
    • Maybe?
      3
  3. 3. Who will win the Presidential Election in 2012?

    • Mitt Romney
      7
    • Barack Obama
      20
    • Mike Huckabee
      0
    • Rick Perry
      1
    • Herman Cain
      1
    • Newt Gingrich
      0
    • Jon Huntsman, Jr.
      0
    • Ron Paul
      1
    • Michele Bachmann
      0
    • Rick Santorum
      0
    • Gary Johnson
      0


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My answers is pretty simple: Governor Mitt Romney. Unemployment is 9.1%. No President has won relection with unemployment was above 7.2%. The economy is not getting better fast enough. Mitt Romney will end up raising more money than President Obama and is more likely to hit the billion dollar goal than the President.

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My answers is pretty simple: Governor Mitt Romney. Unemployment is 9.1%. No President has won relection with unemployment was above 7.2%. The economy is not getting better fast enough. Mitt Romney will end up raising more money than President Obama and is more likely to hit the billion dollar goal than the President.

Agreed. Obama would win against any other Republican (With the possible exceptions of Huntsman and Gingrich). Romney though is the real deal. I don't rule Barry out, but if status quo continues, then Mitt has got this thing in the bag... whether or not that's a good thing... <_< is really up to you...

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Agreed. Obama would win against any other Republican (With the possible exceptions of Huntsman and Gingrich). Romney though is the real deal. I don't rule Barry out, but if status quo continues, then Mitt has got this thing in the bag... whether or not that's a good thing... <_< is really up to you...

Huntsman could win the general election. Gingrich is deeply unpopular with the American people to win a general election... unless Obama really screws up. Going back to the 1980 election, Reagan was not super popular, but Americans HATED Carter more than Reagan, and Reagan won

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/11/03/magazine/538-gdp-election-calculator.html

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Also when Obama agrees to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade, he will face a huge backlash. It won't matter if the Mitt Romney agrees with the President, he will able to argue that the "Democratic" President cut these vital programs, with a economy in bad shape, it could a landslide victory.

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Obama still has a decent shot. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150677/Obama-Back-Even-Generic-Republican-Candidate.aspx

His approval ratings have stabilised. Unemployment is expected to drop, possibly below 9%. Romney at best ties with Obama in swing states. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150554/Obama-Romney-Tied-Nationally-Swing-States.aspx

Romney is the only candidate who in theory could beat Obama. But a lot of Republicans, particularly the more far-right voters, won't see a difference between Romney and Obama, and probably just stay home. Not to mention, Obama has currently raised more than any of the Republicans (last time I checked, he had raised more than the top three combined). Pretty much everybody knows Romney. There isn't anything new he can give the people. The best he can do right now is pretty much the best he can do. Not to mention, Obama has a very good shot at blaming the economy on congressional Republicans, who are far less popular than him.

If Obama can successfully frame the economic debate to be the fault of congressional Republicans, which he stands a very good chance of doing, he will easily win 2012, and the Dems will probably take back the house and hold the senate. This strategy would bring voting Democrats in line, scare independents, and even disillusion Republicans. Compared to Romney, who can sway independents, but the more he sways them, the more he loses the conservative base. He is already far too moderate to truely be acceptable.

In short: Romney theoretically stands a chance, but practically has no chance. Obama could even win in a massive landslide similar to Clinton in 1996 (which was a very similar election to this one, actually).

If the economy doesn't get worse, or if Obama's approval ratings get better, Obama will most likely win.

More polling 'evidence' to support my arguments:

Congress: Dems beat Republicans by an average of 1.5% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Obama vs. Romney: Obama ahead by an average of 1.7% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Obama vs. Cain: Obama ahead by an average of 8.0%

Obama vs. Perry: Obama ahead by an average of 9.3%

Obama vs. generic Republican: Generic Republican ahead by 0.2% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_president_obama_vs_republican_candidate-1745.html

Yeah, Obama is looking pretty strong right now. And if you filter out the Rasmussen polls (which performed worse than any other pollster in 2010, and have a Republican bias of nearly 4%), the numbers look even stronger for Obama and the Democrats. Probably more important than anything else though, is that the Republicans were doing better. Obama and the Democrats have modestly surged ahead of Republicans on all counts. The momentum is definitely in their favor.

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Obama still has a decent shot. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150677/Obama-Back-Even-Generic-Republican-Candidate.aspx

His approval ratings have stabilised. Unemployment is expected to drop, possibly below 9%. Romney at best ties with Obama in swing states. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150554/Obama-Romney-Tied-Nationally-Swing-States.aspx

Romney is the only candidate who in theory could beat Obama. But a lot of Republicans, particularly the more far-right voters, won't see a difference between Romney and Obama, and probably just stay home. Not to mention, Obama has currently raised more than any of the Republicans (last time I checked, he had raised more than the top three combined). Pretty much everybody knows Romney. There isn't anything new he can give the people. The best he can do right now is pretty much the best he can do. Not to mention, Obama has a very good shot at blaming the economy on congressional Republicans, who are far less popular than him.

If Obama can successfully frame the economic debate to be the fault of congressional Republicans, which he stands a very good chance of doing, he will easily win 2012, and the Dems will probably take back the house and hold the senate. This strategy would bring voting Democrats in line, scare independents, and even disillusion Republicans. Compared to Romney, who can sway independents, but the more he sways them, the more he loses the conservative base. He is already far too moderate to truely be acceptable.

In short: Romney theoretically stands a chance, but practically has no chance. Obama could even win in a massive landslide similar to Clinton in 1996 (which was a very similar election to this one, actually).

If the economy doesn't get worse, or if Obama's approval ratings get better, Obama will most likely win.

Romney is going to raise more money because the corporations. Actually Republican will come out because they HATE OBAMA and Obama's base is demoralized! Obama can't frame argument and is going to screw over the middle class because of the grand bargin. Clinton outmanuvered the Republicans and unemployment was 5.4% . Obama LOST EVERY SINGLE TIME to Republicans. No President is going to win when unemployment is 9% and Obama average approval ratings will not get better.

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Romney is going to raise more money because the corporations. Actually Republican will come out because they HATE OBAMA and Obama's base is demoralized! Obama can't frame argument and is going to screw over the middle class because of the grand bargin. Clinton outmanuvered the Republicans and unemployment was 5.4% . Obama LOST EVERY SINGLE TIME to Republicans. No President is going to win when unemployment is 9% and Obama average approval ratings will not get better.

Unemployment? http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/

It's a load of crap. And besides, it's expected to go down, most likely below 9%. What will you do then?

Moreover, Obama's base (Democrats) hate Republicans. They might not be too happy with Obama, but they will come out in droves to vote against another Republican president. nd they've seen just how bad not coming out to vote in 2010 was. The Tea Party in congress has definitely spooked the progressives and the left.

As the campaign goes on, Obama will more and more be compared to the Republican presidential candidates, and his approval ratings will begin to reflect that comparison more. He has already gained a lot of ground in his approval ratings. If he gets into net-approval, it'll be all over for the Republicans.

Ultimately, you can talk all the rhetoric you want, but the polls look very good for Obama and the Democrats at the moment. That could change, it's not likely. The Democrats have on all measures gained ground in polls over the last couple of months. If Obama is losing to the Republicans in the economic debate, then how come the Democrats are doing better in polls than Republicans? How come the house Republicans are far more unpopular than Obama is?

You talk a lot. But you don't present any facts. Right now, the facts are the Democrats are winning. Obama has raised much more money than any of the Republican candidates. If the congress polls today are replicated at the election the Democrats will take back the house resoundingly. If current polls today were replicated on election day, there isn't a single Republican who could beat Obama. And Obama hasn't even begun to campaign yet.

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Unemployment? http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/

It's a load of crap. And besides, it's expected to go down, most likely below 9%. What will you do then?

Moreover, Obama's base (Democrats) hate Republicans. They might not be too happy with Obama, but they will come out in droves to vote against another Republican president. nd they've seen just how bad not coming out to vote in 2010 was. The Tea Party in congress has definitely spooked the progressives and the left.

As the campaign goes on, Obama will more and more be compared to the Republican presidential candidates, and his approval ratings will begin to reflect that comparison more. He has already gained a lot of ground in his approval ratings. If he gets into net-approval, it'll be all over for the Republicans.

Ultimately, you can talk all the rhetoric you want, but the polls look very good for Obama and the Democrats at the moment. That could change, it's not likely. The Democrats have on all measures gained ground in polls over the last couple of months. If Obama is losing to the Republicans in the economic debate, then how come the Democrats are doing better in polls than Republicans? How come the house Republicans are far more unpopular than Obama is?

You talk a lot. But you don't present any facts. Right now, the facts are the Democrats are winning. Obama has raised much more money than any of the Republican candidates. If the congress polls today are replicated at the election the Democrats will take back the house resoundingly. If current polls today were replicated on election day, there isn't a single Republican who could beat Obama. And Obama hasn't even begun to campaign yet.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149759/democrats-dispirited-voting-2012.aspx. You don't get! Democrats don't see much of a difference from Mitt Romney or the President.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/choose-obamas-re-election-adventure "The second factor, Mr. Obama’s approval rating through November 2011, is something that you should probably think of as being locked in rather than variable"

Poll numbers will change, when the the primaries start. Anyway I am not concerned about statewide polls today.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/poll-perry-romney-better-than-obama-for-economy/?hpt=po_bn2

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 49% of registered voters believe Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, would handle the economy better than the president. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said Obama would do a better job.When registered independents are asked the same question Romney outpaces Obama by 13%, according to the same Quinnipiac poll. But Perry and Obama are only 4% apart in that category, once again within the sampling error.Even though voters see Romney and Perry as better stewards of the economy, a majority still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic woes. According to the poll, 51% of respondents blame Bush, compared to 32% that who blame Obama.

Romney and Huntsman could beat Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148964/democrats-enjoy-slight-edge-2012-congressional-ballot.aspx The Democrats only have a slight edge for congressional eletion, I am not sure how if they could pick up enough seats. In Senate things do not look good for the Democrats because they are going to run weak candidates and lose races.

I know problems with unemployment as indicator, but most people still use it as a indicator http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month. This a very good predictor of the Presidential elections. A score over 100 is very good, if under 100, incumbents should worry. In November 2010 the index was 50.2.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149759/democrats-dispirited-voting-2012.aspx. You don't get! Democrats don't see much of a difference from Mitt Romney or the President.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/choose-obamas-re-election-adventure "The second factor, Mr. Obama’s approval rating through November 2011, is something that you should probably think of as being locked in rather than variable"

Poll numbers will change, when the the primaries start. Anyway I am not concerned about statewide polls today.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/06/poll-perry-romney-better-than-obama-for-economy/?hpt=po_bn2

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 49% of registered voters believe Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, would handle the economy better than the president. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said Obama would do a better job.When registered independents are asked the same question Romey outpaces Obama by 13%, according to the same Quinnipiac poll. But Perry and Obama are only 4% apart in that category, once again within the sampling error.Even though voters see Romney and Perry as better stewards of the economy, a majority still blame former President George W. Bush for the country's economic woes. According to the poll, 51% of respondents blame Bush, compared to 32% that who blame Obama.

Romney and Huntsman could beat Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/148964/democrats-enjoy-slight-edge-2012-congressional-ballot.aspx The Democrats only have a slight edge for congressional eletion, I am not sure how if they could pick up enough seats. In Senate things do not look good for the Democrats because they are going to run weak candidates and lose races.

I know problems with unemployment as indicator, but most people still use it as a indicator http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month. This a very good predictor of the Presidential elections. A score over 100 is very good, if under 100, incumbents should worry. In November 2010 the index was 50.2.

So... where I cite multiple recent polls supporting my claims, you cherry pick individual and out of date polls in an attempt to frame them as supporting your claims. Democrats lead congressional Republicans by 6%? That's fairly bloody significant. In fact, according to that Gallup poll you posted, Democrats are precisely where the Republicans were in 2010 (51.4 to 44.8). If your poll were replicated on election night, Democrats would win in a landslide and easily take the house back.

Obama has a year to get Democrats enthusiastic about voting for him. With more money than any of the Republican candidates, he could easily do pretty well. If unemployment goes down at all, which it is predicted to, that's nothing but good news for Obama '12.

With all polls of voting intention either leaning slightly or significantly in Democrats favor, it really doesn't matter about perceptions. "I think this guy might handle the economy better, but I'm not going to vote for him for many other reasons". At the moment, all polling points to a possible Democrat landslide victory. Things can change. But to say the Democrats are in a weak position, or that Obama losing is a certainty is absolutely absurd and completely unsupported by facts. The momentum and the polls are in the Democrats favour.

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So... where I cite multiple recent polls supporting my claims, you cherry pick individual and out of date polls in an attempt to frame them as supporting your claims. Democrats lead congressional Republicans by 6%? That's fairly bloody significant. In fact, according to that Gallup poll you posted, Democrats are precisely where the Republicans were in 2010 (51.4 to 44.8). If your poll were replicated on election night, Democrats would win in a landslide and easily take the house back.

Obama has a year to get Democrats enthusiastic about voting for him. With more money than any of the Republican candidates, he could easily do pretty well. If unemployment goes down at all, which it is predicted to, that's nothing but good news for Obama '12.

With all polls of voting intention either leaning slightly or significantly in Democrats favor, it really doesn't matter about perceptions. "I think this guy might handle the economy better, but I'm not going to vote for him for many other reasons". At the moment, all polling points to a possible Democrat landslide victory. Things can change. But to say the Democrats are in a weak position, or that Obama losing is a certainty is absolutely absurd and completely unsupported by facts. The momentum and the polls are in the Democrats favour.

Averaged Polls aren't has useful until close to the general election and nationals give you idea of who is up or down. I'm taking into account the effect of poor negotiation skills of President and the Democratic Party. They are going to screw over the middle class. They going to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicade. When the economy is the #1 issue, the American People will vote for who will handle the economy better. Unemployment won't go down enough for this President to be reelected. ALL the economic indicators say that the Democrats are weak position and Obama is in a historically weak position. It will not be Obama landslide victory unless the Republicans nominate a weak candidate like Cain, Perry, or Gingrich. The economy is very weak. Voters will blame the Democrats for the bad economy because that is the party that Obama "belongs" to.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cbs-bob-schieffer-to-david-axelrod-on-obama-is-this-a-one-term-presidency/

Axelord: “We are in a different place than we were the day he did that interview.”

Schieffer: “We are, things are worse than they were.”

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Averaged Polls aren't has useful until close to the general election and nationals give you idea of who is up or down.

So... ignoring evidence in favour of unsubstantiated speculation?

In all polls, the Democrats have gained ground in the last few months. Gaining ground in polls = positive momentum. It's easy to sport the line that polls are meaning less when you're losing.

You make these claims about Obama, but he mopped the floor with McCain in the debates in 2008, and Biden used Palin like an old rag. When the president starts campaigning for reelection, then you can make some claims about his performance. But it's only going to get harder for the Republicans. Obama isn't campaigning yet, he's being the President of the United States. It's the best time for the Republican candidates to gain ground, because he isn't fighting back yet. But as soon as he starts campaigning, it will become much harder for the Republican candidates. Just wait until Obama starts campaigning and actually see the quality of his campaign before you spout any more baseless assumptions.

Right now, the Republicans are losing in the polls. They have a lot of time to turn that around, but Obama too has a lot of time, and more money.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/2012-presidential-campaign-fundraising-update/

November 8th

"So far $167.1 million has been raised on behalf of all of the candidates running for president in 2012. President Obama’s fundraising accounts for more than half of that total."

He's managed to raise more than all of the Republican candidates combined.

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So... ignoring evidence in favour of unsubstantiated speculation?

In all polls, the Democrats have gained ground in the last few months. Gaining ground in polls = positive momentum. It's easy to sport the line that polls are meaning less when you're losing.

You make these claims about Obama, but he mopped the floor with McCain in the debates in 2008, and Biden used Palin like an old rag. When the president starts campaigning for reelection, then you can make some claims about his performance. But it's only going to get harder for the Republicans. Obama isn't campaigning yet, he's being the President of the United States. It's the best time for the Republican candidates to gain ground, because he isn't fighting back yet. But as soon as he starts campaigning, it will become much harder for the Republican candidates. Just wait until Obama starts campaigning and actually see the quality of his campaign before you spout any more baseless assumptions.

Right now, the Republicans are losing in the polls. They have a lot of time to turn that around, but Obama too has a lot of time, and more money.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/2012-presidential-campaign-fundraising-update/

November 8th

"So far $167.1 million has been raised on behalf of all of the candidates running for president in 2012. President Obama’s fundraising accounts for more than half of that total."

He's managed to raise more than all of the Republican candidates combined.

I know what the super committee is going to do based on who is on the committee. The Democrats are gaining ground now, but they will find a way to screw it up. Obama is going to run a campaign on the 99% that he screwed over.

David Axelrod can't even answer why Obama will win second term.

http://www.conferenc...rconfidence.cfm The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month. This a very good predictor of the Presidential elections. A score over 100 is very good, if under 100, incumbents should worry. In November 2010 the index was 50.2.

Romney is going to raise the most money because Wall Street wants him to win.

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Consumer Confidence Index before the Election

1968 142.3 Nixon ® defeated Humphrey (D)

1972 112.0 Nixon ® reelected over McGovern (D)

1976 87.1 Carter (D) defeated Ford ®

1980 80.3 Reagan ® defeated Carter (D)

1984 100 Reagan ® reelected over Mondale (D)

1988 110.7 Bush ® defeated Dukakis (D)

1992 57.3 Clinton defeated Bush®

1996 111.8 Clinton (D) reelected over Dole ®

2000 142.5 Bush ® (kind of) defeated Gore (D)

2004 92.8 Bush ® reelected over Kerry (D)

2008 59.8 Obama (D) elected over McCain ®

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Consumer Confidence Index before the Election

1968 142.3 Nixon ® defeated Humphrey (D)

1972 112.0 Nixon ® reelected over McGovern (D)

1976 87.1 Carter (D) defeated Ford ®

1980 80.3 Reagan ® defeated Carter (D)

1984 100 Reagan ® reelected over Mondale (D)

1988 110.7 Bush ® defeated Dukakis (D)

1992 57.3 Clinton defeated Bush®

1996 111.8 Clinton (D) reelected over Dole ®

2000 142.5 Bush ® (kind of) defeated Gore (D)

2004 92.8 Bush ® reelected over Kerry (D)

2008 59.8 Obama (D) elected over McCain ®

Doesn't mean your model is by any means correct. With such a small dataset, overfitting is unavoidable (FiveThirtyEight has done some good posts on this, but basic knowledge of statistics would tell you the same thing). Depending on your choice of variables, pretty much every single election is an outlier in one way or another. No model will ever be particularly reliable or accurate (not for another thousand years at least, when we finally have enough data).

The only model I hold on to is the most reliable one, and the only one that matters - polling. Polling predicted the 2008 election better than any other kind of model did. Pollsters over the years have become very good at what they do. Right now, all of the major pollsters (except for the notably Republican-biased, highly-inaccurate Rasmussen) tell the same story - the Democrats are doing well, very well. According to the Gallup poll you posted, landslide winning well in congress.

Until things change, there is no reason to believe the Democrats won't do quite well in 2012, because that is what all the polls are saying at the moment.

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Doesn't mean your model is by any means correct. With such a small dataset, overfitting is unavoidable (FiveThirtyEight has done some good posts on this, but basic knowledge of statistics would tell you the same thing). Depending on your choice of variables, pretty much every single election is an outlier in one way or another. No model will ever be particularly reliable or accurate (not for another thousand years at least, when we finally have enough data).

The only model I hold on to is the most reliable one, and the only one that matters - polling. Polling predicted the 2008 election better than any other kind of model did. Pollsters over the years have become very good at what they do. Right now, all of the major pollsters (except for the notably Republican-biased, highly-inaccurate Rasmussen) tell the same story - the Democrats are doing well, very well. According to the Gallup poll you posted, landslide winning well in congress.

Until things change, there is no reason to believe the Democrats won't do quite well in 2012, because that is what all the polls are saying at the moment.

Actually polling shows that Romney and Obama are tied and nationial polling doesn't matter that this point of time. With the bad economy, Romney will become President. If there is landslide in the Presidential race it would be for the Republicans. Republicans have a great shot at getting the Senate. The Republicans will may lose some seats in the house, but I don't think they will lose the majority.

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Actually polling shows that Romney and Obama are tied and nationial polling doesn't matter that this point of time. With the bad economy, Romney will become President. If there is landslide in the Presidential race it would be for the Republicans. Republicans have a great shot at getting the Senate. The Republicans will may lose some seats in the house, but I don't think they will lose the majority.

The polls don't show Romney and Obama tied. They show Obama with a slight edge. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Only two polls show Romney in the lead, three with a tie, and five (that's half of them) with Obama in the lead.

And you dont think the Republicans will lose many seats, but from the poll YOU posted, the Democrats would win by as much as the Republicans won in 2010. 51 to 44 is an electoral wipeout in house races. So, again, according to you, because you posted the poll, you think the house Democrats will have as good a year in 2012 as the Republicans did in 2010.

Polling doesn't matter at this point in time? Neither does the economy. What matters is polling, and the economy, come the election. But a year out, who knows what could happen? And the economy is recovering. Unemployment is dropping.

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The polls don't show Romney and Obama tied. They show Obama with a slight edge. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Only two polls show Romney in the lead, three with a tie, and five (that's half of them) with Obama in the lead.

And you dont think the Republicans will lose many seats, but from the poll YOU posted, the Democrats would win by as much as the Republicans won in 2010. 51 to 44 is an electoral wipeout in house races. So, again, according to you, because you posted the poll, you think the house Democrats will have as good a year in 2012 as the Republicans did in 2010.

Polling doesn't matter at this point in time? Neither does the economy. What matters is polling, and the economy, come the election. But a year out, who knows what could happen? And the economy is recovering. Unemployment is dropping.

They are tied with in the margin of error. Based on past experiences it is likely Democrats will figure a way to screw up and not get back the House. Unemployment is dropping now (and insignificantly compared Reagan for 1984 reelection and Clinton's 1996 relection), but it will increase with the Super Committee cuts and remain around 9% on election day. There is no time for the economy get significantly better. Obama should have push for a bigger stimilus bill when he had the chance.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had slightly improved in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month.

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They are tied with in the margin of error. Based on past experiences it is likely Democrats will figure a way to screw up and not get back the House. Unemployment is dropping now (and insignificantly compared Reagan for 1984 reelection and Clinton's 1996 relection), but it will increase with the Super Committee cuts and remain around 9% on election day. There is no time for the economy get significantly better. Obama should have push for a bigger stimilus bill when he had the chance.

Tied within the margin of error? Maybe for one poll. But when you take a combination of polls, the margin of error greately decreases. So when one poll comes up with two candidates being within 2%, the margin of error might be 3%, so they could be tied. But when seven polls come out, all saying pretty much the same thing, the margin of error greately decreases. At the moment, all the polls tell pretty much the same story - Democrats/Obama ahead.

You say the economy is bad, and will get worse. If the economy is bad now, explain why the Democrats are doing so well in the polls. If the Democrats and Obama are getting blamed for the economy, why are they doing so much better than the Republicans in the polls? Just explain that for me.

Also, lulz at Romney's latest polling: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/the-gingrich-surge-has-come/

He might not even win the nomination at this rate if the best he's doing now is roughly tied with Newt Gingrich XD

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Tied within the margin of error? Maybe for one poll. But when you take a combination of polls, the margin of error greately decreases. So when one poll comes up with two candidates being within 2%, the margin of error might be 3%, so they could be tied. But when seven polls come out, all saying pretty much the same thing, the margin of error greately decreases. At the moment, all the polls tell pretty much the same story - Democrats/Obama ahead.

You say the economy is bad, and will get worse. If the economy is bad now, explain why the Democrats are doing so well in the polls. If the Democrats and Obama are getting blamed for the economy, why are they doing so much better than the Republicans in the polls? Just explain that for me.

Also, lulz at Romney's latest polling: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/the-gingrich-surge-has-come/

He might not even win the nomination at this rate if the best he's doing now is roughly tied with Newt Gingrich XD

Most Americans aren't paying attention to the general election, Obama is getting an incumbent boost that will go down. Newt Gingrich has too much bagagage to win the nomination. He is now the favorite alternative to Romney. Once the attacks on Gingrich start, the same thing that Bachmann, Perry, and now Cain will happen. Gingrich will go down in the polls. Unless Huckabee gets back in, Mitt Romney will be Republican nominee and most likely the next President of the United States of America.

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Though I am not ruling out Obama, here is some things that go against him...

1. Economy (duh...)... No president has won reelection with unemployment above 7.2%, except for FDR. As we know, Obama is no FDR. And we have seen miniumum results compared to the New Deal.

2. Obamacare... When the law makes it to the Supreme Court, there are 5 Republican appointed judges, 4 Democratic. Odds favoring an unconstitutional ruling.

3. Graying hair... Obama is no longer the young, energetic, Illinois senator. He is graying. Portraying youth is key in a campaign. Look at Clinton or JFK.

4. Energy problems... Gas prices are soaring...

5. A double dip recession approaching... Majority of Americans believe we are hitting a second recession. If we were to suffer a -2.7% decrease in our GDP (the same amount as the last recession) and Obama were to suffer the same amount of drop in the polls as W. did, then Romney and Huntsman would be Shoeins.

6. Summer Slumps... Obama's polls always suffer the most from July to September. Then they pretty much get landlocked from then on. At the current rate Obama is decreasing according to Gallup Calculations, by November 2012 he will have a 34% approval rating.

Obama is president. He is responsible for the economy. Americans are sick of the Obama excuses of "its Bush's Fault!"

Obama still has a decent shot. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150677/Obama-Back-Even-Generic-Republican-Candidate.aspx

His approval ratings have stabilised. Unemployment is expected to drop, possibly below 9%. Romney at best ties with Obama in swing states. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150554/Obama-Romney-Tied-Nationally-Swing-States.aspx

Romney is the only candidate who in theory could beat Obama. But a lot of Republicans, particularly the more far-right voters, won't see a difference between Romney and Obama, and probably just stay home. Not to mention, Obama has currently raised more than any of the Republicans (last time I checked, he had raised more than the top three combined). Pretty much everybody knows Romney. There isn't anything new he can give the people. The best he can do right now is pretty much the best he can do. Not to mention, Obama has a very good shot at blaming the economy on congressional Republicans, who are far less popular than him.

If Obama can successfully frame the economic debate to be the fault of congressional Republicans, which he stands a very good chance of doing, he will easily win 2012, and the Dems will probably take back the house and hold the senate. This strategy would bring voting Democrats in line, scare independents, and even disillusion Republicans. Compared to Romney, who can sway independents, but the more he sways them, the more he loses the conservative base. He is already far too moderate to truely be acceptable.

In short: Romney theoretically stands a chance, but practically has no chance. Obama could even win in a massive landslide similar to Clinton in 1996 (which was a very similar election to this one, actually).

If the economy doesn't get worse, or if Obama's approval ratings get better, Obama will most likely win.

More polling 'evidence' to support my arguments:

Congress: Dems beat Republicans by an average of 1.5% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Obama vs. Romney: Obama ahead by an average of 1.7% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Obama vs. Cain: Obama ahead by an average of 8.0%

Obama vs. Perry: Obama ahead by an average of 9.3%

Obama vs. generic Republican: Generic Republican ahead by 0.2% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_president_obama_vs_republican_candidate-1745.html

Yeah, Obama is looking pretty strong right now. And if you filter out the Rasmussen polls (which performed worse than any other pollster in 2010, and have a Republican bias of nearly 4%), the numbers look even stronger for Obama and the Democrats. Probably more important than anything else though, is that the Republicans were doing better. Obama and the Democrats have modestly surged ahead of Republicans on all counts. The momentum is definitely in their favor.

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Unemployment is going to increase. Economists believe a double dip recession is coming. Just look at Greece and Italy. If they go up in flames, then the Euro will collapse. Then, that infection will easily spread over to our part of the world. Gallup just reported a 0.2% increase over the past week. Our economy is in the trash... and the mold has only just begun to form...

As for Democrats hating Republicans, all I can say is..."Welcome to America!"

Yes, Obama will be compared to Republicans. If its Romney, then I think Americans will be more trustworthy of a businessman, and Governor of Massachusetts than a President who spends $800Billion and claims to have created a recovery. Plus, Americans disagree with Obama on almost everything except foreign affairs... which is almost a non-issue

WHAT THE ----? DEMOCRATS ARE POLLING WELL???? Romney and Obama are neck and neck at every turn of the race!!!! George W. Bush was leading Kerry by 10% a year before the election, yet barely won! And the odds are solidly in favor of the GOP winning the Senate... get over yourself...

What ---- facts about Democrats winning? Right now, the two platforms Americans are clamoring for are platforms of solid Progressivism or Constitutional Conservatism! A fact is an unwavering truth. Right now, Obama and Romney are locked in a race that is turning redder by the day.

I talk alot? How come you keep saying "Polls mean nothing", then start creating polls about how Democrats will resoundingly reclaim the house? The Democrats need a real reformer as their House Leader... not Pelosi... Pelosi is wasted goods... Charlie Sheen would help the Democrats more...

Unemployment? http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/02/on-the-maddeningly-inexact-relationship-between-unemployment-and-re-election/

It's a load of crap. And besides, it's expected to go down, most likely below 9%. What will you do then?

Moreover, Obama's base (Democrats) hate Republicans. They might not be too happy with Obama, but they will come out in droves to vote against another Republican president. nd they've seen just how bad not coming out to vote in 2010 was. The Tea Party in congress has definitely spooked the progressives and the left.

As the campaign goes on, Obama will more and more be compared to the Republican presidential candidates, and his approval ratings will begin to reflect that comparison more. He has already gained a lot of ground in his approval ratings. If he gets into net-approval, it'll be all over for the Republicans.

Ultimately, you can talk all the rhetoric you want, but the polls look very good for Obama and the Democrats at the moment. That could change, it's not likely. The Democrats have on all measures gained ground in polls over the last couple of months. If Obama is losing to the Republicans in the economic debate, then how come the Democrats are doing better in polls than Republicans? How come the house Republicans are far more unpopular than Obama is?

You talk a lot. But you don't present any facts. Right now, the facts are the Democrats are winning. Obama has raised much more money than any of the Republican candidates. If the congress polls today are replicated at the election the Democrats will take back the house resoundingly. If current polls today were replicated on election day, there isn't a single Republican who could beat Obama. And Obama hasn't even begun to campaign yet.

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Most Americans aren't paying attention to the general election, Obama is getting an incumbent boost that will go down. Newt Gingrich has too much bagagage to win the nomination. He is now the favorite alternative to Romney. Once the attacks on Gingrich start, the same thing that Bachmann, Perry, and now Cain will happen. Gingrich will go down in the polls. Unless Huckabee gets back in, Mitt Romney will be Republican nominee and most likely the next President of the United States of America.

Too late for Huck. October 14th was the last day for Candidates to file with the Federal Elections Commitee...

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Obama is the President. He has had 3 years to turn it around. Reagan turned it around. Clinton turned it around in 2 years. Man up Barack. Quit blaming Bush. Let's fix the economy.

Actually, there is a big difference between Obama and Romney. Romney is articulate, an excellent debater, and largely gaffe proof. Plus, Obama's only economic experience came as a community organizer. Romney has been in the business world for a long time. Which sounds more solvent?

Fine, even if you remove rasmussen, then you will continue to see Romney and Obama polling competitively.

Clinton won a landslide because he was able to be a centrist and unite moderates with liberals. Obama has repeatedly taken a liberal side of the argument. Plus, Clinton had a strong economy, no wars, a warmongering radical as Speaker of the House, and he also had Dick Morris. Everyone knows Obama's leanings...

Plus, leading a Republican by 1.7% whose name is Romney is not a great accomplishment. Within the margin of error...

Obama is not strong. Unless Romney collapses and an idiot like Palin gets nominated, the election is pretty much in Romney's hands...

Obama still has a decent shot. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150677/Obama-Back-Even-Generic-Republican-Candidate.aspx

His approval ratings have stabilised. Unemployment is expected to drop, possibly below 9%. Romney at best ties with Obama in swing states. http://www.gallup.com/poll/150554/Obama-Romney-Tied-Nationally-Swing-States.aspx

Romney is the only candidate who in theory could beat Obama. But a lot of Republicans, particularly the more far-right voters, won't see a difference between Romney and Obama, and probably just stay home. Not to mention, Obama has currently raised more than any of the Republicans (last time I checked, he had raised more than the top three combined). Pretty much everybody knows Romney. There isn't anything new he can give the people. The best he can do right now is pretty much the best he can do. Not to mention, Obama has a very good shot at blaming the economy on congressional Republicans, who are far less popular than him.

If Obama can successfully frame the economic debate to be the fault of congressional Republicans, which he stands a very good chance of doing, he will easily win 2012, and the Dems will probably take back the house and hold the senate. This strategy would bring voting Democrats in line, scare independents, and even disillusion Republicans. Compared to Romney, who can sway independents, but the more he sways them, the more he loses the conservative base. He is already far too moderate to truely be acceptable.

In short: Romney theoretically stands a chance, but practically has no chance. Obama could even win in a massive landslide similar to Clinton in 1996 (which was a very similar election to this one, actually).

If the economy doesn't get worse, or if Obama's approval ratings get better, Obama will most likely win.

More polling 'evidence' to support my arguments:

Congress: Dems beat Republicans by an average of 1.5% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

Obama vs. Romney: Obama ahead by an average of 1.7% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Obama vs. Cain: Obama ahead by an average of 8.0%

Obama vs. Perry: Obama ahead by an average of 9.3%

Obama vs. generic Republican: Generic Republican ahead by 0.2% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_president_obama_vs_republican_candidate-1745.html

Yeah, Obama is looking pretty strong right now. And if you filter out the Rasmussen polls (which performed worse than any other pollster in 2010, and have a Republican bias of nearly 4%), the numbers look even stronger for Obama and the Democrats. Probably more important than anything else though, is that the Republicans were doing better. Obama and the Democrats have modestly surged ahead of Republicans on all counts. The momentum is definitely in their favor.

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Though I am not ruling out Obama, here is some things that go against him...

1. Economy (duh...)... No president has won reelection with unemployment above 7.2%, except for FDR. As we know, Obama is no FDR. And we have seen miniumum results compared to the New Deal.

2. Obamacare... When the law makes it to the Supreme Court, there are 5 Republican appointed judges, 4 Democratic. Odds favoring an unconstitutional ruling.

3. Graying hair... Obama is no longer the young, energetic, Illinois senator. He is graying. Portraying youth is key in a campaign. Look at Clinton or JFK.

4. Energy problems... Gas prices are soaring...

5. A double dip recession approaching... Majority of Americans believe we are hitting a second recession. If we were to suffer a -2.7% decrease in our GDP (the same amount as the last recession) and Obama were to suffer the same amount of drop in the polls as W. did, then Romney and Huntsman would be Shoeins.

6. Summer Slumps... Obama's polls always suffer the most from July to September. Then they pretty much get landlocked from then on. At the current rate Obama is decreasing according to Gallup Calculations, by November 2012 he will have a 34% approval rating.

Obama is president. He is responsible for the economy. Americans are sick of the Obama excuses of "its Bush's Fault!"

I agree with all the point except for the new health care law. I think most of the law will survive,but the individual mandate is dead.

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Unemployment is going to increase. Economists believe a double dip recession is coming. Just look at Greece and Italy. If they go up in flames, then the Euro will collapse. Then, that infection will easily spread over to our part of the world. Gallup just reported a 0.2% increase over the past week. Our economy is in the trash... and the mold has only just begun to form...

As for Democrats hating Republicans, all I can say is..."Welcome to America!"

Yes, Obama will be compared to Republicans. If its Romney, then I think Americans will be more trustworthy of a businessman, and Governor of Massachusetts than a President who spends $800Billion and claims to have created a recovery. Plus, Americans disagree with Obama on almost everything except foreign affairs... which is almost a non-issue

WHAT THE ----? DEMOCRATS ARE POLLING WELL???? Romney and Obama are neck and neck at every turn of the race!!!! George W. Bush was leading Kerry by 10% a year before the election, yet barely won! And the odds are solidly in favor of the GOP winning the Senate... get over yourself...

What ---- facts about Democrats winning? Right now, the two platforms Americans are clamoring for are platforms of solid Progressivism or Constitutional Conservatism! A fact is an unwavering truth. Right now, Obama and Romney are locked in a race that is turning redder by the day.

I talk alot? How come you keep saying "Polls mean nothing", then start creating polls about how Democrats will resoundingly reclaim the house? The Democrats need a real reformer as their House Leader... not Pelosi... Pelosi is wasted goods... Charlie Sheen would help the Democrats more...

Again, I agree with everything you said except for one thing... Romney is a trustworthy person??? Flip-flops???

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